中通快递-W(02057)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.93%，报148.2港元，成交额1.85亿港元。 消息面上，多家快递公司发布9月月报。圆通速递（600233）9月完成业务量26.27亿件，同比增长 13.64%，单票收入2.21元，同比增长1.09%；申通快递（002468）9月完成业务量21.87亿件，同比增长 9.46%，单票收入2.12元，同比增长4.95%；韵达股份（002120）9月完成业务量21.10亿件，同比增长 3.63%，单票收入2.02元，同比增长0.50%。华创证券认为，通达系三家公司9月单票收入较7月提升幅度 分别为：申通提升0.15元，圆通提升0.13元，韵达提升0.11元。8-9月从单票收入角度验证了行业提价逻 辑，随着10月旺季到来，预计有望进一步表现。 申万宏源指出，预计三季度快递企业将初步兑现涨价带来的利润修复，关注四季度利润弹性。根据快递 公司经营月报，7月快递企业单票收入较低，普遍处于年内较低水平，8-9月在反内卷推动下逐月改善， 该行认为三季度快递公司将初步兑现涨价带来的利润修复，继续关注四季度利润弹性。 ...

申万宏源指出，预计三季度快递企业将初步兑现涨价带来的利润修复，关注四季度利润弹性。根据快递 公司经营月报，7月快递企业单票收入较低，普遍处于年内较低水平，8-9月在反内卷推动下逐月改善， 该行认为三季度快递公司将初步兑现涨价带来的利润修复，继续关注四季度利润弹性。 消息面上，多家快递公司发布9月月报。圆通速递9月完成业务量26.27亿件，同比增长13.64%，单票收 入2.21元，同比增长1.09%；申通快递9月完成业务量21.87亿件，同比增长9.46%，单票收入2.12元，同 比增长4.95%；韵达股份9月完成业务量21.10亿件，同比增长3.63%，单票收入2.02元，同比增长 0.50%。华创证券认为，通达系三家公司9月单票收入较7月提升幅度分别为：申通提升0.15元，圆通提 升0.13元，韵达提升0.11元。8-9月从单票收入角度验证了行业提价逻辑，随着10月旺季到来，预计有望 进一步表现。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.93%，报148.2港元，成交额1.85 亿港元。 ...

继续推荐快递板块！——行业反内卷与旺季连接，全面扩 散趋势已形成，持续性或超预期！20250914 摘要 2025 年快递行业反内卷监管力度加大，国家邮政局联合企业召开座谈 会，广东地区停止价格战并提价，锁盘期延至 9 月 20 日，显示出强监 管决心。 快递行业业务量增速放缓，预计 2025 年全年增速 15%左右，未来或回 归个位数增长，但业绩弹性主要来自单票价格和利润提升，提价是关键。 各地提价效果存在差异，广东监管严格效果显著，义乌因地方政府态度 谨慎效果不佳，福建、浙江等地陆续提价，但核心城市尚未全面实施。 市场对反内卷政策反馈积极，但义乌二次涨价未及预期曾引发股市调整， 总体乐观，期待政策有效传导至上市公司盈利能力提升。 2025 年快递行业价格上涨具有扩散性和持续性，多地提价且进入旺季， 与 2024 年仅广东提价且未形成大规模联动的情况形成对比。 最高法解释二明确企业未缴足社保，劳动者可诉讼追缴，预计国家将扩 大社保缴纳范围，但相关成本尚未实质落地，暂未纳入利润测算。 推荐快递公司顺序为申通、圆通、中通、韵达。申通弹性大，与阿里即 时零售整合紧密；圆通总部利润分配比例高；中通支持加盟商成长；韵 ...

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with an expected business volume growth rate of around 15% for the foreseeable future [1] - The current competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time, with anti-involution policies favoring mid-to-late stage companies, leading to a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on the efficiency improvements in e-commerce express delivery, as factors like autonomous vehicles may enhance the competitive advantage of mid-to-late stage companies [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry's price competition has gone through four phases: 1) moderate price competition (2016-2019), 2) intense price wars (2019-2021), 3) stabilization phase (2021-2022), and 4) a return to competition since 2023 [2] - Historical anti-involution policies have included multiple measures from April to September 2021 aimed at curbing vicious price wars, leading to a price rebound starting in September 2021 [2] - The current industry fundamentals align with anti-involution demands, with clear low-price support, but the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase similar to 2021 is low due to ongoing competition [3] Group 3 - If a price increase occurs, e-commerce express delivery companies could see significant profit elasticity, with past data showing substantial profit rebounds following price hikes [4] - Profit margins for major companies post-price increase in 2022 showed significant year-on-year improvements, with ZTO Express up by 26% and YTO Express up by 105% [4] - Under hypothetical price increases of 3-10%, the profit elasticity for various companies ranges significantly, indicating that mid-to-late stage companies may experience more pronounced profit elasticity due to lower profit baselines [4]