Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery with increased business volume and revenue per package, particularly in September, indicating a positive trend as the peak season approaches [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express (02057) saw its stock price rise by over 4% during trading, closing at 148.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 185 million HKD [1] - YTO Express (600233) reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with revenue per package at 2.21 RMB, up 1.09% [1] - Shentong Express (002468) completed 2.187 billion packages in September, reflecting a 9.46% year-on-year growth, with revenue per package at 2.12 RMB, an increase of 4.95% [1] - Yunda Express (002120) achieved a business volume of 2.110 billion packages in September, a 3.63% year-on-year increase, with revenue per package at 2.02 RMB, up 0.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities noted that the average revenue per package for the three major express companies improved from July to September, with Shentong increasing by 0.15 RMB, YTO by 0.13 RMB, and Yunda by 0.11 RMB [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery from price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [1] - The report indicates that the average revenue per package was at a low point in July, but has shown improvement in August and September due to reduced competition, suggesting a positive outlook for the upcoming peak season in October [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express (02057) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, closing at 148.2 HKD with a trading volume of 185 million HKD, following the release of September operational reports from several express delivery companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.21 RMB, up 1.09% year-on-year [1] - Shentong Express completed a business volume of 2.187 billion parcels in September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.46%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.12 RMB, an increase of 4.95% year-on-year [1] - Yunda Holdings achieved a business volume of 2.110 billion parcels in September, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.63%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.02 RMB, up 0.50% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities noted that the single ticket revenue for the three major companies improved from July to September, with Shentong increasing by 0.15 RMB, YTO by 0.13 RMB, and Yunda by 0.11 RMB, indicating a price increase trend in the industry [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan projected that the third quarter would see express delivery companies begin to realize profit recovery from price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [1] - The monthly operational reports indicated that single ticket revenue was at a low level in July, but improved month-on-month in August and September due to internal competition reduction, suggesting a positive outlook for profit recovery [1]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant regulatory push against price wars, particularly in 2025, with the State Post Bureau collaborating with companies to enforce stricter regulations [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a business volume growth rate of approximately 15% for the year 2025, although future growth may revert to single-digit figures [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory environment has intensified, with the State Post Bureau's initiatives leading to price increases in various regions, particularly in Guangdong, where a price increase of 0.4 yuan per 0.1 kg was implemented [1][3] - **Price Increase Effects**: The impact of price increases varies by region; Guangdong shows significant results, while places like Yiwu have seen less effective outcomes due to local government hesitance [1][5] - **Market Sentiment**: The market has responded positively to the anti-involution policies, with expectations that these will enhance the profitability of listed companies [1][7] - **Comparison with Previous Year**: The price increase trend in 2025 is more widespread and sustained compared to 2024, where only Guangdong initiated price hikes without broader participation [1][8][9] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Shentong, YTO, Zhongtong, and Yunda, with Shentong highlighted for its strong elasticity and close integration with Alibaba's retail operations [2][11] - Jitu's profit growth in China is noted as significant, although its primary operations are in Southeast Asia [2][11] Additional Insights - **Labor and Social Security**: The Supreme Court's recent ruling allows workers to sue for unpaid social security contributions, which may lead to increased costs for companies, although these costs have not yet been factored into profit estimates [1][10][12] - **Future Outlook**: The express delivery sector is viewed as having substantial potential for growth, especially given its current low valuation and the thorough implementation of anti-involution measures [1][14]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with an expected business volume growth rate of around 15% for the foreseeable future [1] - The current competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time, with anti-involution policies favoring mid-to-late stage companies, leading to a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on the efficiency improvements in e-commerce express delivery, as factors like autonomous vehicles may enhance the competitive advantage of mid-to-late stage companies [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry's price competition has gone through four phases: 1) moderate price competition (2016-2019), 2) intense price wars (2019-2021), 3) stabilization phase (2021-2022), and 4) a return to competition since 2023 [2] - Historical anti-involution policies have included multiple measures from April to September 2021 aimed at curbing vicious price wars, leading to a price rebound starting in September 2021 [2] - The current industry fundamentals align with anti-involution demands, with clear low-price support, but the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase similar to 2021 is low due to ongoing competition [3] Group 3 - If a price increase occurs, e-commerce express delivery companies could see significant profit elasticity, with past data showing substantial profit rebounds following price hikes [4] - Profit margins for major companies post-price increase in 2022 showed significant year-on-year improvements, with ZTO Express up by 26% and YTO Express up by 105% [4] - Under hypothetical price increases of 3-10%, the profit elasticity for various companies ranges significantly, indicating that mid-to-late stage companies may experience more pronounced profit elasticity due to lower profit baselines [4]