1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].