1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market experienced a significant downturn on November 18, with major indices in Asia and the U.S. showing substantial declines, attributed to various factors including geopolitical tensions, economic concerns, and anticipation of key earnings reports [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.22%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, closing below 49,000 points [4]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by 3.32%, reflecting worsening risk sentiment, particularly in the semiconductor sector [4]. - A total of 4,106 stocks declined in the A-share market, with only 1,278 stocks rising, indicating a broad market sell-off [10]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Concerns over Sino-Japanese relations heightened market anxiety, contributing to the overall decline [12]. - The Japanese bond market faced significant selling pressure, especially in ultra-long-term bonds, due to fears surrounding the government's expanding economic stimulus plans and potential fiscal risks [12]. - The market is recalibrating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with analysts noting that volatility in the cryptocurrency sector is spilling over into other high-risk assets [13]. - Anticipation of Nvidia's earnings report is causing investors to reassess the high valuations in the AI sector, with concerns that the upcoming report could impact the broader market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq index [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant flood protection gap in the EU, highlighting that to achieve a uniform flood insurance penetration rate of 75%, total premiums must at least double, with current uninsured flood losses estimated at €27 billion annually. Increasing insurance penetration could reduce these losses by up to 50% [2][7][8] - It also addresses the financial vulnerability of low-income households in the U.S. regarding vehicle flood damages, revealing that FEMA provided over $160 million in assistance from 2007 to 2022, with a significant portion of recipients being low-income renters [9][11] - The potential for public-private partnership (PPP) models in pandemic insurance is explored, suggesting that intertemporal risk-sharing and capital accumulation could enhance resilience against future pandemics [12][13] - The impact of risk aversion on insurance premium rigidity is analyzed, indicating that risk-averse companies may maintain current premium rates despite changes in risk, contrasting with risk-neutral companies that would adjust rates [5][6][14] Summary by Sections Flood Protection Gap - The EU needs to double its total insurance premiums to reach a 75% flood insurance penetration rate, with current average annual uninsured losses at €27 billion. Increasing penetration could lead to a potential loss reduction of up to 50% [2][7][8] Household Disaster Assistance - From 2007 to 2022, FEMA awarded over $160 million to applicants for uninsured vehicle flood damages, with more than half of the applicants being renters and nearly two-thirds earning $30,000 or less annually. The median award represented about 33% of the median annual household income [9][11] Pandemic Insurance - The article examines the feasibility of pandemic insurance in Switzerland, emphasizing the need for a PPP model that incorporates risk-sharing and capital accumulation to mitigate revenue losses faced by firms during pandemics [12][13] Risk Aversion and Premium Rigidity - A risk-averse insurance company may choose not to change premium rates despite having information on client demand, while a risk-neutral company would adjust rates accordingly. The degree of risk aversion significantly affects the size of premium adjustments [5][6][14]