1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools such as outright reverse repurchase and MLF forms a price - comparison relationship with the current issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs). Also, the scale of public money market funds and bank wealth management cash - management products is expected to continue growing, so it's difficult for the inter - bank CD rate to rise significantly. However, it's also hard for DR001 to fall significantly below the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, so the downward space for the inter - bank CD rate is limited [1]. - In the context of low cross - year financing difficulty, the inter - bank CD yield may remain in a "dilemma" pattern within the year. Wait patiently for a possible CD allocation point in January 2026 [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "进退维谷"的同业存单 - Since the fourth quarter, the yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CDs has had an amplitude of only 5bp, fluctuating between 1.63% and 1.68%. In December, the amplitude has narrowed to 2bp, indicating a balance between "long" and "short" factors [2][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield has a high difficulty in rising. The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools forms a price - comparison relationship with the CD issuance rate, and the growth of current - account wealth management product scale drives up the CD allocation demand [3][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield also has a high difficulty in falling. Under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, and the money market has been characterized by "ample quantity but stable price" in the past six months [4][12]. 狭义流动性 央行操作：月初季节性净回笼 - In the past week (12/1 - 12/5), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 8480 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase balance as of December 5 was 6638 billion yuan, at a low level [13]. - In December, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 14000 billion yuan (10000 billion yuan for 3M and 4000 billion yuan for 6M), and the maturity of MLF was 3000 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank renewed 10000 billion yuan of 3M outright reverse repurchase, achieving an equal - amount renewal [14][15]. 机构融入融出情况：月初融出顺畅 - On December 5, the net funds lent out by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 4.1 trillion yuan, about 7415 billion yuan higher than on November 28, and the net lending balance was 4.7 trillion yuan, about 2966 billion yuan more than on November 28, both at relatively high levels compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.2 trillion yuan, about 2366 billion yuan lower than on November 28, at a neutral level compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 40 billion yuan, about 317 billion yuan higher than on November 28, at a relatively low level compared with the same period in previous years [16]. - On December 5, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, 6678 billion yuan higher than on November 28. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products changed accordingly [26]. 回购市场成交情况：月初流动性摩擦小 - In terms of quantity and price of funds, at the end of the month, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4867 billion yuan compared with 11/24 - 11/28. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a 1bp decrease from last week. The liquidity friction was small [30]. - The money market was generally loose, and the financing difficulty at the beginning of the month was low, with the sentiment index mostly around 50 [31]. 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year rate decreased slightly compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% of the range since 2020, and the median of the SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.60%, in the bottom 22% of the range since 2020 [36]. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 1866 billion yuan, with relatively small overall pressure. Treasury bonds and local bonds had net payments of 500 billion and 1366 billion yuan respectively. In the next week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 7952 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 8797 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 845 billion yuan [37]. 当前政府债发行进度 - As of December 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2%, up 2.6% from the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 2523 billion yuan. The issuance of the 5000 - billion - yuan local bond quota balance to be carried forward within the year has started [39]. 同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 绝对收益率 - On December 5, SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.3%, 1.42%, 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. Except for the 7 - day term, which decreased by 2bp compared with November 28, the quotes for other terms remained unchanged. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank CDs of commercial banks with AAA ratings were 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.66% respectively, with those of 1M and above terms increasing by 13bp, 4bp, 2bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively compared with November 28 [42]. 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (December 1 - December 5), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 4959 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 13%, 12%, 44%, 9%, and 22% respectively, with the proportions of 1M, 6M, and 9M increasing and those of 3M and 1Y decreasing [44]. 相对估值 - On December 5, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 19bp, at the 47% quantile since 2020 [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The monetary policy operation will continue the loose tone, with the focus shifting to price control. The next - stage monetary policy is expected to maintain the general tone of moderate looseness, deepen price - control policy reform, and use structural tools around key areas [3]. - The interest rate transmission path of price - based tools is optimized, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" are gradually straightened out, and it is expected that the policy interest rate may be cut by 20BP in 2026, possibly in the first half of the year [4]. - For quantity - based tools, the high - volume roll - over of repurchase and MLF limits the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is not high, and the focus in 2026 is on whether the current medium - and long - term liquidity injection model will continue [5]. - In the broad liquidity aspect, the de - leveraging cycle continues, and government bonds support the stabilization of the social financing growth rate. It is estimated that the social financing increment in 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2025, about 34.5 trillion yuan [5]. - The narrow - sense liquidity will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, and the expectation is to maintain a reasonable and sufficient level. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the low - volatility and stable state, and the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market through flexible open - market operations [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 General Introduction: Monetary Policy Operation Continues the Loose Tone, with the Focus Shifting to Price Control - **Summary and Review**: In 2025, the monetary policy shifted from prudent to moderately loose. Quantity injection and price control jointly promoted reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The operation framework reform continued to deepen, and structural monetary policies effectively supported key areas [12][13][14]. - **Next - stage Monetary Policy Outlook**: In 2026, the liquidity is expected to remain reasonably sufficient, and the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will continue to improve. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and structural tools will strengthen policy support in key areas [16][18][19]. 3.2 Price - based Tools: Interest Rate Transmission Path is Optimized, and Small - scale Interest Rate Cuts are Still Anticipated - **Five - group Interest Rate Relationships are Gradually Straightened Out, and the Possibility of a New Round of Interest Rate Cuts is Achieved**: The central bank proposed the "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" in the Q3 2025 monetary policy report. These relationships are in a relatively repaired state, providing a possibility for the central bank to further cut the policy interest rate in 2026 [21][31]. - **In 2026, Price Control will be Mainly Stable, and the Interest Rate Cut Space is Expected to be within 20BP**: Considering the economic situation, interest rate system, bank system's bearing capacity, and fiscal - monetary coordination, there is still about 20BP of space for policy interest rate cuts in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Quantity - based Tools: High - volume Roll - over of Repurchase and MLF, and the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts May be Limited - **Medium - and Long - term Liquidity Injection is Well - coordinated, and MLF and Outright Repurchase are Expanded Synchronously**: In 2025, the liquidity injection of quantity - based tools formed an institutional arrangement. Outright repurchase and MLF were expanded synchronously, effectively hedging the impact of the concentrated maturity of structural monetary policies. Some structural policy tools are shrinking, and the central bank's bond - buying operation restarted cautiously [35][39][41]. - **System Optimization is a Necessary Prerequisite for Opening up the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts**: Currently, the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is significantly reduced. Unless the 5% constraint is broken, the trend is to淡化 reserve requirement ratio cuts and expand tools [43][44]. 3.4 Broad Liquidity: The De - leveraging Cycle Continues, and Government Bonds Support the Stabilization of the Social Financing Growth Rate - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycle of residents and enterprises continues, and the credit growth rate faces continuous pressure. In 2025, the short - term loans and bill financing of enterprises increased significantly, and government and enterprise bond financing supported the social financing scale. It is estimated that the credit and social financing in 2026 will increase slightly [45][51][54]. - **Deposits**: Personal savings deposits maintain high - slope growth, non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics, unit current deposits are weakly recovering, and unit time deposits are declining. The liability side of large banks is gradually stabilizing [56][58][59]. 3.5 Narrow - sense Liquidity: The Capital Market Fluctuates Narrowly, and the Expectation is to Maintain a Reasonable and Sufficient Level - In 2025, the capital market style changed significantly after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable state" in 2026, with the price center moving down and the volatility further converging. There may be potential liquidity frictions in the first quarter of 2026, but the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market [66][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The net financing of large - scale banks is a synchronous and slightly leading indicator of inter - bank liquidity. Affected by the tax period, the net financing amount of large - scale banks reached the "tight - loose watershed" of 3 trillion yuan. Currently, seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, and the real test of narrow - sense liquidity may come in the first quarter of 2026 [1][3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1大行净融出金额"险守"3万亿 - Qualitatively, due to the central bank's primary dealer system in the open - market, there is a capital transmission chain in the inter - bank market. The net financing of large - scale banks is the main core of inter - bank market financing. Quantitatively, on November 21, the net financing balance of large - scale banks was about 4.1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35.6% of the inter - bank market's bond balance to be repurchased [2][10]. - From November 17 to November 21, the net financing amount of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, "barely holding" 3 trillion yuan. The capital market was first tight and then loose, and the repurchase rate first rose and then fell. After the tax period ended, it rebounded to 3.66 trillion yuan on November 21, and DR001 reached a maximum of 1.53% [3][11]. - The current seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, but the market's expectation of liquidity remains relatively stable. The narrow - sense liquidity may face a real test in the first quarter of 2026 [3][11]. 3.2狭义流动性 3.2.1央行操作：税期加大逆回购净投放 - Short - term liquidity: From November 17 to November 21, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 554 billion yuan. As of November 21, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 1676 billion yuan, at a relatively high level [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of repurchase - style reverse - repurchase was 1000 billion yuan, and MLF matured at 900 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 500 billion yuan in repurchase - style reverse - repurchase [13]. 3.2.2机构融入融出情况：大行净融出先下后上 - Fund supply: On November 21, the net financing of large - scale banks was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of about 295.5 billion yuan compared with November 14. The net financing balance of money market funds decreased by about 191.2 billion yuan, and joint - stock banks' net borrowing decreased by about 165 billion yuan [16]. - Fund demand: On November 21, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 209 billion yuan compared with November 14. The market leverage ratio rose by 0.11 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products rose by 0.42 percentage points [23]. 3.2.3回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - Quantity and price of funds: In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged - repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume decreased by 24.4 billion yuan, the median of R001 rose by 2bp, and the liquidity friction increased slightly [28]. - Fund sentiment index: The capital market was first tight and then loose. The sentiment index was generally above 50 during the tax period and began to decline after November 20 [29]. 3.2.4利率互换：基本持平 - FR007 IRS 1 - year interest rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year interest rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of FR007 IRS 1 - year was 1.54%, and the median of SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.59% [33]. 3.3政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 3.3.1下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 362.9 billion yuan. In the next week, it is expected to be 233.7 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 56.1 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 289.8 billion yuan. The net payment pressure will be evenly distributed, and there will be a net repayment next Tuesday [34]. 3.3.2当前政府债发行进度 - As of November 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 93.0%, and the issuance progress of new local bonds was 95.3%. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [35]. 3.4同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 3.4.1绝对收益率 - On November 21, most of the SHIBOR quotes and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks with AAA ratings remained unchanged, except for overnight, 7 - day, and 1 - month terms which decreased [40]. 3.4.2发行和存量情况 - From November 17 to November 21, the issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 176.4 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month and 1 - year terms increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month terms decreased [42]. 3.4.3相对估值 - On November 21, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield were 14bp and 18bp respectively, at certain quantile levels since 2020 [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the situation of low core excess reserves, factors such as large - scale government bond net payments and frozen funds from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange can lead to a tightening of the capital market and an increase in repurchase rates. However, the strong lending capacity of non - bank institutions like money market funds has kept the capital stratification spread low, which is favorable for inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) pricing. But the investment in 1 - year CDs still requires consideration of cost - effectiveness [1][14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 From the Perspective of Low Core Excess Reserves to Understand the Capital Market and Stratification Spread - **Analysis of the Tightening Capital Market**: The official excess reserve ratio at the end of September 2025 was 1.40%, lower than that in September 2024 and the estimated value. The calculated core excess reserve ratio was 0.5%, lower than the previous forecast. Large - scale government bond net payments (nearly 500 billion yuan in the past week) and frozen funds from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange (about 870 billion yuan) were the main reasons for the capital tightening in the past week. The impact of the full deposit of payment institution customer reserves during "Double Eleven" on the capital market was likely not the cause [2][12][13]. - **Analysis of the Compressed Capital Stratification Spread**: The continuous compression of the capital stratification spread indicates the strong lending capacity of non - bank institutions. Since 2024, regulatory measures have led to a shift of commercial bank deposits to non - bank institutions, increasing the lending power of non - bank institutions and decreasing that of commercial banks. This has compressed the spread between R007 and DR007. The compressed spread is beneficial for inter - bank CD pricing, but the investment in 1 - year CDs still needs to consider cost - effectiveness [4][14][15]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: In November, the net investment of outright reverse repurchase was 50 billion yuan. In the past week, the net investment of pledged reverse repurchase was 626.2 billion yuan, with large net investments on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of November 14, the balance of reverse repurchases was 1122 billion yuan, at a relatively high level [16][17]. - **Institution Lending and Borrowing**: On November 14, the net lending amount of large - scale banks decreased compared to November 7, while the net lending balance of money market funds increased. The net lending of joint - stock banks was at a neutral level compared to previous years. The balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market decreased, and the market leverage ratio declined [19][26]. - **Repurchase Market Transactions**: In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume decreased slightly, and the median R001 increased slightly. The liquidity friction was minimal [31]. - **Interest Rate Swaps**: The 1 - year interest rates of FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS were basically flat compared to the previous week, and both were at relatively low levels in the historical range [38]. 3.3 Government Bonds - **Next - Week Net Payments**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 472.5 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 362.9 billion yuan in the next week. The net payment pressure is relatively large, especially on Monday [39]. - **Current Issuance Progress**: As of November 14, the net financing progress of national debt was 91.5%, and the issuance progress of new local bonds was 93.3%. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [40]. 3.4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Absolute Yields**: On November 14, the SHIBOR quotes of various maturities and the yields of AAA - rated inter - bank CDs of various maturities showed different changes compared to November 7 [47][48]. - **Issuance and Stock**: In the past week, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs increased. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month CDs increased, while those of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year CDs decreased [50][52]. - **Relative Valuation**: On November 14, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year national debt yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain historical quantiles [55].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and maintain a relatively loose social financing condition, indicating a continuation of previous monetary policy frameworks and the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Indicators - The central bank highlights that financial totals reflect the strength of financial support for the real economy, suggesting that social financing (社融) and M2 money supply will be more comprehensive indicators for evaluating monetary policy effectiveness [2][9]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual growth rate of social financing and M2 is expected to be around 9%-10%, which is higher than the nominal economic growth rate [2][9]. - The central bank indicates that a loan growth rate that is slightly lower is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure, and emphasizes the importance of optimizing the use of existing funds [2][10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The relationship between base money and currency is discussed, noting that changes in financial markets and financing structures have deep impacts on monetary control [3][11]. - The central bank is urged to shift its policy adjustment model to rely more on price (interest rate) controls due to the complexities in creating broad liquidity [3][12]. Group 3: Digital Economy Support - The central bank reports that by the end of September 2025, loans to core industries of the digital economy are expected to reach 8.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [4][13]. - It is noted that over 4,600 projects for the intelligent and digital transformation of traditional industries have been supported, with loan contracts amounting to approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][13]. - The central bank plans to leverage the dual drivers of "digital technology + data elements" to enhance financial services and governance in the digital finance sector [4][14]. Group 4: Interest Rate Relationships - The importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is emphasized, as it is crucial for the effective transmission of monetary policy [5][15]. - The central bank's policy interest rates should guide market interest rates, ensuring that the yield curve remains upward sloping to provide positive incentives [5][16]. - The central bank has been actively working to ensure that deposit and loan rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining stable risk pricing and interest margins [5][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the spread between 1 - 2 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" remains stable, while the spread between 3 - 5 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" has widened rapidly, and the 5 - year spread has exceeded the level during the central bank's bond - buying period last year, indicating that the central bank's main bond - buying tenor is currently 3 - 5 years [1][4][13]. - The widening spread of 7 - 10 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" more reflects the impact of the new regulations on the redemption of public bond funds and the change in the allocation power of China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Key Information Implied by Spreads between China Development Bank Bonds and Treasury Bonds of Different Tenors - Before 2024, the spread (or implicit tax rate) between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds mainly reflected the changes in the bond - buying power of configuration - type investors such as bank self - operations and trading - type investors such as bond funds under the tax difference, with obvious characteristics of "narrowing in bull markets and widening in bear markets" [2][11]. - Currently, using the "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" spread can better reflect the change in the demand structure. After August 8, 2024, the "continuity" of the implicit tax rate is worse than the spread due to the resumption of value - added tax on the interest income of financial bonds [3][12]. - From August to December 2024, the central bank continuously net - bought Treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, during which the spreads of 1 - year and 2 - year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" widened significantly. The "claims on the government" item in the central bank's balance sheet decreased by about 660 billion yuan in 2025, indicating that the tenors of Treasury bonds purchased by the central bank in 2024 were relatively short [3][12]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations: Restart Treasury Bond Trading to Inject Base Money - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (November 3 - 7), the central bank's net repurchase of pledged reverse repurchase was 1572.2 billion yuan. As of November 7, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 495.8 billion yuan, seasonally at a low level at the beginning of the month [20]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 1000 billion yuan (700 billion yuan for 3 - month and 300 billion yuan for 6 - month), and the maturity of MLF was 900 billion yuan. On November 5, the central bank renewed 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [21][22]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Sufficient Supply in the Upper and Middle Reaches - Fund supply (lenders): On November 7, the net lending of large - scale banks was 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 730.2 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 280.5 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 183.3 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 114.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 116.7 billion yuan compared with October 31 [25]. - Fund demand (borrowers): On November 7, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 202.4 billion yuan compared with October 31. The inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with October 31 [34]. 3.2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Stable in Both Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repo market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 996.8 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a decrease of 4bp compared with last week [36]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.54%, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.59% [44]. 3.3 Government Bonds: Rising Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week - **Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 36.8 billion yuan. In the coming week, it is expected to be 369.2 billion yuan, with relatively high pressure on Monday and Friday [46]. - **Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds**: As of November 7, the net financing progress of Treasury bonds was 87.8%, with about 810.3 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4%, with 500.2 billion yuan of remaining issuance space [48]. 3.4 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Decreasing in Volume and Stable in Price - **Absolute Yield**: On November 7, most SHIBOR quotes of different tenors decreased compared with October 31, except for the overnight tenor which increased by 1bp. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of 1 - month and above tenors increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Issuance and Stock Situation**: In the past week, the total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 527.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. In terms of issuance tenors, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month increased, while those of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year decreased [54]. - **Relative Valuation**: On November 7, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35th percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 18bp, at the 42nd percentile since 2020 [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit slowdown slows commercial banks' excess reserve consumption and reduces liquidity friction at month - and quarter - ends, while the central bank actively injects medium - and long - term liquidity, especially restarting treasury bond trading, are the two reasons for the continued loose narrow liquidity in November [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由 - Credit slowdown is the basis for the endogenous loosening of narrow liquidity. Due to the weak real - economy financing demand and the change in the assessment method, banks' willingness to issue low - interest loans at month - and quarter - ends has decreased. On October 30, the yields of national and joint - stock bank acceptance bill rediscounts were all low, indicating "bill - for - loan" behavior and sufficient "broad credit" for banks to smoothly lend to non - bank institutions [2][10] - Economic leading indicators show that the real economy needs support, so the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy. The central bank has been net - injecting funds through operations like repurchase and MLF since June 2025, and will restart treasury bond trading. The amount and duration of this trading will affect the optimism of base - money replenishment [3][11] 2. 狭义流动性 2.1 央行操作：将重启国债买卖投放基础货币 - Short - term liquidity: From October 27 - 31, the central bank's net injection of pledged repurchase was 12008 billion yuan. As of October 31, the central bank's repurchase balance was 20680 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [12] - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the due amounts of outright repurchase and MLF were 13000 billion yuan and 7000 billion yuan respectively. The central bank's net injection of outright repurchase was 4000 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 2000 billion yuan [13] 2.2 机构融入融出情况：符合月末宽松的特征 - Fund supply: On October 31, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 3.2 trillion yuan, and the net lending balance was 4.2 trillion yuan, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.5 trillion yuan, at a neutral level. The net lending of joint - stock banks was - 25 billion yuan, also at a neutral level [16] - Fund demand: On October 31, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 765 billion yuan from October 24. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products were 107% and 113% respectively, with different percentile positions since 2020 [22] 2.3 回购市场成交情况：跨月资金成本较低 - Fund volume and price: Last week, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, but the cross - month repurchase rate remained stable. The median daily trading volume was about 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8599 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The median R001 was 1.44%, up about 6bp from last week. The liquidity friction was small [29] - Fund sentiment index: After a slight tightening during the tax period on the 27th and 28th, the cross - month fund situation became loose, and the fund sentiment index fell below 50 [30] 2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - After the news of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, the 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rates dropped. On October 31, their weighted average rates were 1.53% and 1.59% respectively, with low percentile positions since 2020 [36] 3. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力较小 3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - Last week, the net payment of government bonds was 1337 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected to be a net repayment of 382 billion yuan, with relatively small pressure [37] 3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.4%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 10361 billion yuan. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5%, with a remaining issuance space of 5454 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds completed the annual task [39] 4. 同业存单：净融资规模继续回落，存单利率下行 4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 31, SHIBOR quotes changed little. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) of different maturities all declined compared to October 24, benefiting from the loose funds after the news of the central bank's treasury bond trading [43] 4.2 发行和存量情况 - From October 27 - 31, the primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 7349 billion yuan, a decrease of 2283 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The proportion of different maturities changed, with 1M, 3M, and 9M increasing and 6M and 1Y decreasing [45] 4.3 相对估值 - On October 31, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain percentile positions since 2020 [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the third quarter, the increase in inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates has been relatively small. Under the circumstances of the bottoming - out of the capital attribute and the weakening of the expectation attribute, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The expected interest rate of 1 - year inter - bank CDs is raised to around 1.80% [1][4][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1同业存单或存在"补跌"可能 - Since the third quarter, due to factors such as the strong rise of A - shares, the "anti - involution" policy, and the new public fund redemption rules, the yields of various bond varieties have increased, but the inter - bank CD interest rate has remained stable. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year old treasury bonds have increased by 14bp and 25bp respectively, while the 1 - year inter - bank CD interest rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks has only increased by 4bp [2][11]. - The reasons for the better performance of inter - bank CDs than other bonds are the stable and loose capital situation (DR007 has been around 1.40% for a long time) and the minimal impact of institutional behavior disturbances on the allocation demand for inter - bank CDs. The demanders of inter - bank CDs are mainly broad - based funds and bank self - operation, accounting for about 86% of the holdings. The new public fund redemption rules have little impact on the demand for inter - bank CDs [3][12]. - With the capital attribute bottoming out and the expectation attribute weakening, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The DR007 is approaching the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4%, and the short - term expectation of policy rate cuts has been revised down. The current spread between 1 - year inter - bank CDs and R007 may converge to within 40bp [4][13]. 3.2 狭义流动性 3.2.1 央行操作：中期流动性持续净投放 - In the short - term, the central bank's reverse repurchase net injection in the past week (10/20 - 10/24) was 781 billion yuan, with large net injections on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of October 24, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 867.2 billion yuan, still at a relatively high level [15]. - In the medium - term, in October, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 130 billion yuan, and the due amount of MLF was 70 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases and will achieve a net injection of 20 billion yuan in MLF on October 27 [16]. 3.2.2 机构融入融出情况：供需两旺 - **Supply side**: On October 24, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) decreased by 613.9 billion yuan compared with October 17, but were still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds increased by 19.88 billion yuan, and that of joint - stock banks increased by 22.13 billion yuan, both at a neutral level in the same period of previous years [19]. - **Demand side**: On October 24, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market decreased by 515.2 billion yuan compared with October 17. The market leverage ratio was 107%, a decrease of 0.33pct, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.65pct [24]. 3.2.3 回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206.9 billion yuan. The median R001 was 1.37%, an increase of 2bp. The liquidity friction was small [29]. 3.2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS interest rates were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% since 2020, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.62%, in the bottom 24% since 2020 [36]. 3.3 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力中性 3.3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 133.7 billion yuan, with a neutral overall pressure. Treasury bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 5.39 billion yuan, and local government bonds are expected to have a net payment of 187.7 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large from Wednesday to Friday [37]. 3.3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 89.0%, an increase of 4.9% in the past week, with a remaining net financing space of about 734.9 billion yuan in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 86.2%, with a remaining issuance space of 717.3 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [38][41]. 3.4 同业存单：净融资规模明显回落，银行长期负债压力或可控 3.4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 24, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year remained relatively stable, as did the yields of AAA - rated inter - bank CDs of commercial banks [42]. 3.4.2 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (October 20 - 24), the total issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 963.2 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month terms decreased, while those of 9 - month and 1 - year terms increased [44]. 3.4.3 相对估值 - On October 24, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 21bp, in the 42% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 17bp, in the 38% quantile since 2020 [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The calculated September 2025 excess reserve ratio is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, but the core excess reserve ratio (excluding the central bank's reverse repurchase balance) is at a low level during the same period. This divergence indicates that the current excess reserves of the banking system rely on central bank injections, and the 1.4% 7D reverse repurchase rate of the central bank directly forms the lower limit of DR007 [1][3]. - With the slowdown of government bond issuance and commercial banks' reduced focus on loan - volume targets, the core excess reserve ratio is expected to rise slightly in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory 1 How to View the Divergence between Excess Reserve Ratio and Core Excess Reserve Ratio - The September 2025 excess reserve ratio (calculated by the five - factor method) is 1.59%, up from 1.22% in August and compared to 1.80% in September 2024. It is the second - highest in September over the past five years [2][11]. - The core excess reserve ratio in September 2025 is 0.64%, while the calculated core excess reserve ratios in September of the past four years were 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.42%, and 1.15%. The divergence shows that the excess reserve level of the commercial banking system depends on the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases, and the central bank's injections affect the level of excess reserves [3][12]. - The impact of loans on excess reserves has been decreasing. From 2022 to Q3 2025, the new RMB loans of commercial banks were 4.4 trillion, 4 trillion, 2.75 trillion, and 1.83 trillion respectively, and the growth rate may remain low in Q4. As of October 17, 2025, the remaining government bond issuance amount is much lower than the quarterly issuance in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][17]. 2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Injection of Outright Reverse Repurchases - In the past week (10/13 - 10/17), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3479 billion yuan. As of October 17, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 7891 billion yuan, significantly lower than at the end of September, in line with the pattern of "injections at the end of the month and withdrawals at the beginning of the month" [19]. - In October, the total maturity amount of outright reverse repurchases was 13000 billion yuan (8000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M), and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. The central bank's net injection of outright reverse repurchases in October was 4000 billion yuan [20]. 2.2 Institution - level Funding Supply and Demand: Strong Supply and Demand - On October 17, large - scale banks' net funding supply (flow concept, excluding same - day maturities) was 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 6899 billion yuan from October 10, and the net funding supply balance was 5.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6170 billion yuan from October 10, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net funding supply balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5374 billion yuan from October 10, in line with the rule of "less net funding supply in a loose liquidity environment". The net funding supply of joint - stock commercial banks was - 2118 billion yuan, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [21]. - On October 17, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 12.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 3340 billion yuan from October 10. The full - market leverage ratio was 107%, up 0.22 percentage points from October 10, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 113%, up 0.44 percentage points from October 10 [30]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction: Stable Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4665 billion yuan compared to October 10 - 11. The median R001 was 1.35%, still at a low level. The median spread between R001 and DR001 decreased by 2.8bp to 3.9bp, and the median spread between GC001 and R001 decreased by 5.5bp to 4bp, indicating low liquidity friction [34]. - The funding sentiment index remained around 50, and the market generally loosened in the afternoon [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Decline - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate increased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was 1.54%, in the 9th percentile since 2020, and the median 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate was 1.61%, in the 23rd percentile since 2020 [43]. 3 Government Bonds: Neutral Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment for Government Bonds - In the coming week, the expected net payment for government bonds is 1584 billion yuan, with a neutral overall net payment pressure. The net payment for treasury bonds is 216 billion yuan, and for local government bonds is 1367 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively high on Tuesday, and the net repayment amount is the largest on Wednesday [44]. 3.2 Current Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of October 18, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.1%, an increase of 0.2% in the past week, with about 1.06 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 84%, with 0.83 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space (excluding the proposed 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance). The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task. The supply of government bonds slowed down in October, and future issuance depends on the issuance rhythm of the 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance and the early allocation of the new local government debt quota in 2026 [48]. 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significantly Reduced Net Financing, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yields - On October 17, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.42%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively. The yields of 1M and above for AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks were 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively [50]. 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Amount - From October 13 to 17, the total primary issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 7295.30 billion yuan, an increase of 7130 billion yuan compared to October 9 - 10. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 12%, 20%, 44%, 5%, and 19% respectively, with 1M and 9M decreasing by 57.49 and 3.08 percentage points, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y increasing by 12.81, 38.65, and 9.12 percentage points respectively [54]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 17, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 20bp, in the 40th percentile since 2020, and the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 16bp, in the 32nd percentile since 2020 [56].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.5%, up from +0.3% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure remained at +3.1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.5%, improving from -1.4% previously[1] September Fiscal Performance - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.58% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous month[3] - Central government revenue grew by 3.47% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 1.96%[3] - Tax revenue in September rose by 8.66% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement[5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic consumption tax increased by 3.83% year-on-year, with vehicle purchase tax rising by 8.53%[4] - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year growth of 19.59%, although it was a decline from the previous month[5] - Personal income tax grew by 16.68% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance[5] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue in September improved to +5.6% year-on-year from -5.7%[22] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue was 49.1%, below the five-year average of 54.4%[22] - Cumulative expenditure progress for government fund budgets was 60.0%, above the five-year average of 56.1%[22] Special Debt Issuance - By September 2025, the issuance of new local special bonds reached 3.68 trillion yuan, completing 83.6% of the annual plan[31] - The acceleration of fund activation post-special bond issuance is expected to improve liquidity and stabilize infrastructure investment growth[31]