证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 23 日 大行净融出金额"险守"3 万亿 ——流动性与同业存单跟踪 核心观点 大行净融出是银行间流动性的同步略先行指标，税期影响下大行净融出金额最低触及 3 万亿的"松紧分水岭"，当前季节性扰动因素在核心超储偏低下被放大，而狭义流 动性的真正考验或在 2026 年一季度。 ❑ 大行净融出金额"险守"3 万亿 大行净融出是银行间流动性的同步略先行指标。从定性角度来看，由于央行公 开市场一级交易商制度，在流动性结构性短缺的框架下，银行间市场存在央行— 大行（上游）—股份行（中游）—城农商行（中游）—非银（下游）的资金传导 链条，类似于河流的上中下游，那么上游的水位高低直接决定了中下游水位高 低，也可以通过中游水位高低来观察资金传导链条的顺畅性。根据新修订的公开 市场业务一级交易商考评指标，央行一级交易商需要履行"货币市场传导"职 能，具体包括"稳定融出、合理定价的交易范围"和"资金紧张时期稳市表 现"。从定量角度来看，11 月 21 日银行间市场待购回债券余额约 11.5 万亿，大 行净融出余额（逆回购余额减去正 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 16 日 从核心超储偏低的视角理解资金面和分层利差 ——流动性与同业存单跟踪 核心观点 在核心超储偏低的情形下，大额政府债净缴款、北交所打新冻结资金等扰动性因素均 会使得资金面收敛、回购利率抬升，但当前货币基金等非银融出力量较强，使得资金 分层利差较低，对同业存单定价较为友好，但 1 年期存单投资或仍需考虑性价比问题。 ❑ 如何看待收敛的资金面 近期央行披露 2025 年 9 月末官方超储率为 1.40%，低于 2024 年 9 月末 1.80%，亦低于我们测算的 1.59%。超储是银行间流动性的源头，剔除央行逆回 购余额后的核心超储是日常资金平稳的关键，按 9 月末官方超储率（1.4%）计 算出来的 9 月末核心超储率为 0.5%，明显低于我们前期的预计值 0.64%。 当前核心超储偏低使得资金扰动因素对资金面的影响放大，大额政府债净缴 款、北交所打新冻结是过去一周（11 月 10 日到 11 月 14 日）资金收敛的主要原 因。过去一周政府债券净缴款金额接近 5000 亿元，单周净缴款绝对金额明显较 大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and maintain a relatively loose social financing condition, indicating a continuation of previous monetary policy frameworks and the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Indicators - The central bank highlights that financial totals reflect the strength of financial support for the real economy, suggesting that social financing (社融) and M2 money supply will be more comprehensive indicators for evaluating monetary policy effectiveness [2][9]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual growth rate of social financing and M2 is expected to be around 9%-10%, which is higher than the nominal economic growth rate [2][9]. - The central bank indicates that a loan growth rate that is slightly lower is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure, and emphasizes the importance of optimizing the use of existing funds [2][10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The relationship between base money and currency is discussed, noting that changes in financial markets and financing structures have deep impacts on monetary control [3][11]. - The central bank is urged to shift its policy adjustment model to rely more on price (interest rate) controls due to the complexities in creating broad liquidity [3][12]. Group 3: Digital Economy Support - The central bank reports that by the end of September 2025, loans to core industries of the digital economy are expected to reach 8.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [4][13]. - It is noted that over 4,600 projects for the intelligent and digital transformation of traditional industries have been supported, with loan contracts amounting to approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][13]. - The central bank plans to leverage the dual drivers of "digital technology + data elements" to enhance financial services and governance in the digital finance sector [4][14]. Group 4: Interest Rate Relationships - The importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is emphasized, as it is crucial for the effective transmission of monetary policy [5][15]. - The central bank's policy interest rates should guide market interest rates, ensuring that the yield curve remains upward sloping to provide positive incentives [5][16]. - The central bank has been actively working to ensure that deposit and loan rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining stable risk pricing and interest margins [5][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the spread between 1 - 2 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" remains stable, while the spread between 3 - 5 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" has widened rapidly, and the 5 - year spread has exceeded the level during the central bank's bond - buying period last year, indicating that the central bank's main bond - buying tenor is currently 3 - 5 years [1][4][13]. - The widening spread of 7 - 10 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" more reflects the impact of the new regulations on the redemption of public bond funds and the change in the allocation power of China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Key Information Implied by Spreads between China Development Bank Bonds and Treasury Bonds of Different Tenors - Before 2024, the spread (or implicit tax rate) between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds mainly reflected the changes in the bond - buying power of configuration - type investors such as bank self - operations and trading - type investors such as bond funds under the tax difference, with obvious characteristics of "narrowing in bull markets and widening in bear markets" [2][11]. - Currently, using the "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" spread can better reflect the change in the demand structure. After August 8, 2024, the "continuity" of the implicit tax rate is worse than the spread due to the resumption of value - added tax on the interest income of financial bonds [3][12]. - From August to December 2024, the central bank continuously net - bought Treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, during which the spreads of 1 - year and 2 - year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" widened significantly. The "claims on the government" item in the central bank's balance sheet decreased by about 660 billion yuan in 2025, indicating that the tenors of Treasury bonds purchased by the central bank in 2024 were relatively short [3][12]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations: Restart Treasury Bond Trading to Inject Base Money - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (November 3 - 7), the central bank's net repurchase of pledged reverse repurchase was 1572.2 billion yuan. As of November 7, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 495.8 billion yuan, seasonally at a low level at the beginning of the month [20]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 1000 billion yuan (700 billion yuan for 3 - month and 300 billion yuan for 6 - month), and the maturity of MLF was 900 billion yuan. On November 5, the central bank renewed 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [21][22]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Sufficient Supply in the Upper and Middle Reaches - Fund supply (lenders): On November 7, the net lending of large - scale banks was 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 730.2 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 280.5 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 183.3 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 114.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 116.7 billion yuan compared with October 31 [25]. - Fund demand (borrowers): On November 7, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 202.4 billion yuan compared with October 31. The inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with October 31 [34]. 3.2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Stable in Both Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repo market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 996.8 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a decrease of 4bp compared with last week [36]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.54%, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.59% [44]. 3.3 Government Bonds: Rising Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week - **Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 36.8 billion yuan. In the coming week, it is expected to be 369.2 billion yuan, with relatively high pressure on Monday and Friday [46]. - **Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds**: As of November 7, the net financing progress of Treasury bonds was 87.8%, with about 810.3 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4%, with 500.2 billion yuan of remaining issuance space [48]. 3.4 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Decreasing in Volume and Stable in Price - **Absolute Yield**: On November 7, most SHIBOR quotes of different tenors decreased compared with October 31, except for the overnight tenor which increased by 1bp. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of 1 - month and above tenors increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Issuance and Stock Situation**: In the past week, the total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 527.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. In terms of issuance tenors, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month increased, while those of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year decreased [54]. - **Relative Valuation**: On November 7, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35th percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 18bp, at the 42nd percentile since 2020 [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit slowdown slows commercial banks' excess reserve consumption and reduces liquidity friction at month - and quarter - ends, while the central bank actively injects medium - and long - term liquidity, especially restarting treasury bond trading, are the two reasons for the continued loose narrow liquidity in November [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由 - Credit slowdown is the basis for the endogenous loosening of narrow liquidity. Due to the weak real - economy financing demand and the change in the assessment method, banks' willingness to issue low - interest loans at month - and quarter - ends has decreased. On October 30, the yields of national and joint - stock bank acceptance bill rediscounts were all low, indicating "bill - for - loan" behavior and sufficient "broad credit" for banks to smoothly lend to non - bank institutions [2][10] - Economic leading indicators show that the real economy needs support, so the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy. The central bank has been net - injecting funds through operations like repurchase and MLF since June 2025, and will restart treasury bond trading. The amount and duration of this trading will affect the optimism of base - money replenishment [3][11] 2. 狭义流动性 2.1 央行操作：将重启国债买卖投放基础货币 - Short - term liquidity: From October 27 - 31, the central bank's net injection of pledged repurchase was 12008 billion yuan. As of October 31, the central bank's repurchase balance was 20680 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [12] - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the due amounts of outright repurchase and MLF were 13000 billion yuan and 7000 billion yuan respectively. The central bank's net injection of outright repurchase was 4000 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 2000 billion yuan [13] 2.2 机构融入融出情况：符合月末宽松的特征 - Fund supply: On October 31, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 3.2 trillion yuan, and the net lending balance was 4.2 trillion yuan, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.5 trillion yuan, at a neutral level. The net lending of joint - stock banks was - 25 billion yuan, also at a neutral level [16] - Fund demand: On October 31, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 765 billion yuan from October 24. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products were 107% and 113% respectively, with different percentile positions since 2020 [22] 2.3 回购市场成交情况：跨月资金成本较低 - Fund volume and price: Last week, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, but the cross - month repurchase rate remained stable. The median daily trading volume was about 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8599 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The median R001 was 1.44%, up about 6bp from last week. The liquidity friction was small [29] - Fund sentiment index: After a slight tightening during the tax period on the 27th and 28th, the cross - month fund situation became loose, and the fund sentiment index fell below 50 [30] 2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - After the news of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, the 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rates dropped. On October 31, their weighted average rates were 1.53% and 1.59% respectively, with low percentile positions since 2020 [36] 3. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力较小 3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - Last week, the net payment of government bonds was 1337 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected to be a net repayment of 382 billion yuan, with relatively small pressure [37] 3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.4%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 10361 billion yuan. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5%, with a remaining issuance space of 5454 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds completed the annual task [39] 4. 同业存单：净融资规模继续回落，存单利率下行 4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 31, SHIBOR quotes changed little. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) of different maturities all declined compared to October 24, benefiting from the loose funds after the news of the central bank's treasury bond trading [43] 4.2 发行和存量情况 - From October 27 - 31, the primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 7349 billion yuan, a decrease of 2283 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The proportion of different maturities changed, with 1M, 3M, and 9M increasing and 6M and 1Y decreasing [45] 4.3 相对估值 - On October 31, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain percentile positions since 2020 [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the third quarter, the increase in inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates has been relatively small. Under the circumstances of the bottoming - out of the capital attribute and the weakening of the expectation attribute, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The expected interest rate of 1 - year inter - bank CDs is raised to around 1.80% [1][4][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1同业存单或存在"补跌"可能 - Since the third quarter, due to factors such as the strong rise of A - shares, the "anti - involution" policy, and the new public fund redemption rules, the yields of various bond varieties have increased, but the inter - bank CD interest rate has remained stable. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year old treasury bonds have increased by 14bp and 25bp respectively, while the 1 - year inter - bank CD interest rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks has only increased by 4bp [2][11]. - The reasons for the better performance of inter - bank CDs than other bonds are the stable and loose capital situation (DR007 has been around 1.40% for a long time) and the minimal impact of institutional behavior disturbances on the allocation demand for inter - bank CDs. The demanders of inter - bank CDs are mainly broad - based funds and bank self - operation, accounting for about 86% of the holdings. The new public fund redemption rules have little impact on the demand for inter - bank CDs [3][12]. - With the capital attribute bottoming out and the expectation attribute weakening, inter - bank CDs may experience a "catch - up decline". The DR007 is approaching the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4%, and the short - term expectation of policy rate cuts has been revised down. The current spread between 1 - year inter - bank CDs and R007 may converge to within 40bp [4][13]. 3.2 狭义流动性 3.2.1 央行操作：中期流动性持续净投放 - In the short - term, the central bank's reverse repurchase net injection in the past week (10/20 - 10/24) was 781 billion yuan, with large net injections on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of October 24, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 867.2 billion yuan, still at a relatively high level [15]. - In the medium - term, in October, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 130 billion yuan, and the due amount of MLF was 70 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases and will achieve a net injection of 20 billion yuan in MLF on October 27 [16]. 3.2.2 机构融入融出情况：供需两旺 - **Supply side**: On October 24, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) decreased by 613.9 billion yuan compared with October 17, but were still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds increased by 19.88 billion yuan, and that of joint - stock banks increased by 22.13 billion yuan, both at a neutral level in the same period of previous years [19]. - **Demand side**: On October 24, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market decreased by 515.2 billion yuan compared with October 17. The market leverage ratio was 107%, a decrease of 0.33pct, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.65pct [24]. 3.2.3 回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206.9 billion yuan. The median R001 was 1.37%, an increase of 2bp. The liquidity friction was small [29]. 3.2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS interest rates were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% since 2020, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.62%, in the bottom 24% since 2020 [36]. 3.3 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力中性 3.3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 133.7 billion yuan, with a neutral overall pressure. Treasury bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 5.39 billion yuan, and local government bonds are expected to have a net payment of 187.7 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large from Wednesday to Friday [37]. 3.3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 89.0%, an increase of 4.9% in the past week, with a remaining net financing space of about 734.9 billion yuan in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 86.2%, with a remaining issuance space of 717.3 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [38][41]. 3.4 同业存单：净融资规模明显回落，银行长期负债压力或可控 3.4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 24, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year remained relatively stable, as did the yields of AAA - rated inter - bank CDs of commercial banks [42]. 3.4.2 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (October 20 - 24), the total issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 963.2 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month terms decreased, while those of 9 - month and 1 - year terms increased [44]. 3.4.3 相对估值 - On October 24, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 21bp, in the 42% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 17bp, in the 38% quantile since 2020 [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The calculated September 2025 excess reserve ratio is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, but the core excess reserve ratio (excluding the central bank's reverse repurchase balance) is at a low level during the same period. This divergence indicates that the current excess reserves of the banking system rely on central bank injections, and the 1.4% 7D reverse repurchase rate of the central bank directly forms the lower limit of DR007 [1][3]. - With the slowdown of government bond issuance and commercial banks' reduced focus on loan - volume targets, the core excess reserve ratio is expected to rise slightly in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory 1 How to View the Divergence between Excess Reserve Ratio and Core Excess Reserve Ratio - The September 2025 excess reserve ratio (calculated by the five - factor method) is 1.59%, up from 1.22% in August and compared to 1.80% in September 2024. It is the second - highest in September over the past five years [2][11]. - The core excess reserve ratio in September 2025 is 0.64%, while the calculated core excess reserve ratios in September of the past four years were 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.42%, and 1.15%. The divergence shows that the excess reserve level of the commercial banking system depends on the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases, and the central bank's injections affect the level of excess reserves [3][12]. - The impact of loans on excess reserves has been decreasing. From 2022 to Q3 2025, the new RMB loans of commercial banks were 4.4 trillion, 4 trillion, 2.75 trillion, and 1.83 trillion respectively, and the growth rate may remain low in Q4. As of October 17, 2025, the remaining government bond issuance amount is much lower than the quarterly issuance in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][17]. 2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Injection of Outright Reverse Repurchases - In the past week (10/13 - 10/17), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3479 billion yuan. As of October 17, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 7891 billion yuan, significantly lower than at the end of September, in line with the pattern of "injections at the end of the month and withdrawals at the beginning of the month" [19]. - In October, the total maturity amount of outright reverse repurchases was 13000 billion yuan (8000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M), and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. The central bank's net injection of outright reverse repurchases in October was 4000 billion yuan [20]. 2.2 Institution - level Funding Supply and Demand: Strong Supply and Demand - On October 17, large - scale banks' net funding supply (flow concept, excluding same - day maturities) was 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 6899 billion yuan from October 10, and the net funding supply balance was 5.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6170 billion yuan from October 10, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net funding supply balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5374 billion yuan from October 10, in line with the rule of "less net funding supply in a loose liquidity environment". The net funding supply of joint - stock commercial banks was - 2118 billion yuan, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [21]. - On October 17, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 12.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 3340 billion yuan from October 10. The full - market leverage ratio was 107%, up 0.22 percentage points from October 10, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 113%, up 0.44 percentage points from October 10 [30]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction: Stable Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4665 billion yuan compared to October 10 - 11. The median R001 was 1.35%, still at a low level. The median spread between R001 and DR001 decreased by 2.8bp to 3.9bp, and the median spread between GC001 and R001 decreased by 5.5bp to 4bp, indicating low liquidity friction [34]. - The funding sentiment index remained around 50, and the market generally loosened in the afternoon [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Decline - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate increased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was 1.54%, in the 9th percentile since 2020, and the median 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate was 1.61%, in the 23rd percentile since 2020 [43]. 3 Government Bonds: Neutral Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment for Government Bonds - In the coming week, the expected net payment for government bonds is 1584 billion yuan, with a neutral overall net payment pressure. The net payment for treasury bonds is 216 billion yuan, and for local government bonds is 1367 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively high on Tuesday, and the net repayment amount is the largest on Wednesday [44]. 3.2 Current Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of October 18, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.1%, an increase of 0.2% in the past week, with about 1.06 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 84%, with 0.83 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space (excluding the proposed 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance). The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task. The supply of government bonds slowed down in October, and future issuance depends on the issuance rhythm of the 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance and the early allocation of the new local government debt quota in 2026 [48]. 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significantly Reduced Net Financing, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yields - On October 17, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.42%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively. The yields of 1M and above for AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks were 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively [50]. 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Amount - From October 13 to 17, the total primary issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 7295.30 billion yuan, an increase of 7130 billion yuan compared to October 9 - 10. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 12%, 20%, 44%, 5%, and 19% respectively, with 1M and 9M decreasing by 57.49 and 3.08 percentage points, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y increasing by 12.81, 38.65, and 9.12 percentage points respectively [54]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 17, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 20bp, in the 40th percentile since 2020, and the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 16bp, in the 32nd percentile since 2020 [56].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.5%, up from +0.3% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure remained at +3.1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.5%, improving from -1.4% previously[1] September Fiscal Performance - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.58% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous month[3] - Central government revenue grew by 3.47% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 1.96%[3] - Tax revenue in September rose by 8.66% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement[5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic consumption tax increased by 3.83% year-on-year, with vehicle purchase tax rising by 8.53%[4] - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year growth of 19.59%, although it was a decline from the previous month[5] - Personal income tax grew by 16.68% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance[5] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue in September improved to +5.6% year-on-year from -5.7%[22] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue was 49.1%, below the five-year average of 54.4%[22] - Cumulative expenditure progress for government fund budgets was 60.0%, above the five-year average of 56.1%[22] Special Debt Issuance - By September 2025, the issuance of new local special bonds reached 3.68 trillion yuan, completing 83.6% of the annual plan[31] - The acceleration of fund activation post-special bond issuance is expected to improve liquidity and stabilize infrastructure investment growth[31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early October, the bill rate dropped rapidly. The transfer and discount yield of 3M state-owned and joint-stock bank drafts across the year was only 0.47%. The expectation of real - economy credit supply within the year still needs to be boosted, and narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening [1][2][10]. - Although narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening, the central bank still emphasizes "preventing capital idling" in the third - quarter monetary policy meeting. The situation of a "lower limit" for repo rates still holds, and the yield range of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit may be between 1.6% - 1.65% [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. 10 - early - October Bill Rate Rapid Decline - The "five - factor method" shows that central bank investment, commercial bank credit supply, and fiscal factors may all be favorable to the capital market in the fourth quarter, indicating an endogenous basis for loosening of narrow - sense liquidity. The rapid decline in the transfer and discount yield of 3M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts across the year in early October implies poor expectations for real - economy credit supply in the fourth quarter by commercial banks, which is favorable to narrow - sense liquidity. On October 9, the transfer and discount yields of overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, and 6M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts were 1.28%, 1.28%, 1.19%, 0.47%, and 0.77% respectively [2][10]. 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Investment in Outright Repos - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (October 9 - 10), the central bank's pledged repos had a net withdrawal of 16423 billion yuan. As of October 10, the central bank's repo balance was 10210 billion yuan, significantly lower than on September 30 but still slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. The commercial bank system's excess reserves still depend on central bank investment [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the total maturity amount of outright repos was 13000 billion yuan, and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank renewed 11000 billion yuan of 3M outright repos, with an excess renewal of 3000 billion yuan [13]. 2.2 Institution's Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Strong Supply and Demand - Fund supply: On October 10, large - scale banks' net fund lending (flow concept) was 38608 billion yuan, an increase of 14269 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 45983 billion yuan, an increase of 3652 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of money market funds was 18758 billion yuan, a decrease of 437 billion yuan compared to September 30. In early October, joint - stock commercial banks had large - scale net borrowing, and the net borrowing amount was at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [16]. - Fund demand: On October 10, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase of bonds in the whole market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3358 billion yuan compared to September 30. The whole - market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to September 30. The leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to September 30 [26]. 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Volume Increase and Price Decrease at the Beginning of the Month - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the volume of the inter - bank pledged repo market increased while the price decreased, in line with the seasonal pattern at the beginning of the month. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos was 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 24969 billion yuan compared to September 29 - 30. The median R001 was 1.37%, a decrease of 9bp compared to September 29 - 30. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 4.4bp, a decrease of 6.3bp; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 13.2bp, an increase of 2.3bp, indicating small liquidity friction [28][30]. - Fund sentiment index: At the beginning of the month, the fund market was seasonally loose, and the fund sentiment index was around 50, generally loosening in the afternoon [32]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Increase The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate decreased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.56%, a decrease of 2bp compared to last week, and the interest rate was at the 12% quantile since 2020 [33]. 3. Government Bonds: Low Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - Affected by the holiday, the net payment of government bonds was small in the past week. In the coming week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 852 billion yuan, with a relatively low overall net payment pressure. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds is 1261 billion yuan, and local bonds have a net repayment of 409 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, and small on other weekdays [37]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of October 11, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.8%, an increase of 2.8% in the past week, with about 1.08 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6%, with 0.85 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space in 2025. The issuance progress of refinancing special bonds was 99.8%. Recently, the net supply scale of treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds has slowed down, but the issuance rhythm of new local bonds may still be relatively fast in October [38]. 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significant Decline in Net Financing Scale, and the Pressure on Banks' Long - term Liabilities May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yield - On October 10, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.45%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.68% respectively. Among them, overnight, 7 - day, and 1M increased by - 6bp, 5bp, and - 1bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged. The yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks on October 10 were 1.84%, 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.27%, and 2.33% respectively. Among them, 1M and 3M decreased by 1bp and 6bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged [42]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (October 9 - 10), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 16.52 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 70%, 7%, 5%, 8%, and 10% respectively. Among them, 1M increased by 59.19 percentage points compared to last week, while 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 16.75 percentage points, 13.39 percentage points, 13.11 percentage points, and 15.93 percentage points respectively compared to last week [46]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 10, the spread between the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit and R007 was 18bp, at the 37% quantile since 2020. The spread between the yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds and 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 18bp, at the 41% quantile since 2020 [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy regular meeting continues the "supportive" monetary policy idea. While "maintaining abundant liquidity", it also "prevents fund idling", and the pattern of "ample quantity and stable price" in narrow - sense liquidity may continue. The mention of "implementing various monetary policy measures and fully releasing policy effects" does not necessarily mean that the focus of monetary policy is on existing policies, and incremental policies can also be expected [1][3]. - The cross - quarter capital market may be relatively loose. The cross - quarter capital price will first rise and then fall. The central bank's injection, fiscal expenditure, and smooth bank financing may contribute to a loose cross - quarter capital pattern [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations: Active Injection of Medium - term Liquidity Continues - **Short - term liquidity**: In the past week (9/22 - 9/26), the central bank's open - market pledged reverse repurchase had a net injection of 6406 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the balance of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase was 24674 billion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (9/28 - 9/30), the due amount of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase is 5166 billion yuan, and the central bank may continue to support short - term liquidity [11]. - **Long - term liquidity**: In the past week, the central bank renewed 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, with 3000 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 4 consecutive months [12]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance: The Net Payment of Government Bonds in the Next Week is 212.1 Billion Yuan, with Small Supply Pressure - **Net payment of government bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 128.6 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 59.4 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 188.1 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 212.1 billion yuan, with a net payment of 157.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 54.8 billion yuan for local bonds. The overall net payment pressure is small, and the net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday [19]. - **Issuance rhythm and progress of government bonds**: As of 9/26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 81.1%, a decrease of 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 1.26 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1%, an increase of 3.0% in the past week, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is about 0.88 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 99.8%, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of new local bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 and 2023 [20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market: Bill Interest Rates Slightly Recovered at the End of September At the end of September, bill interest rates rose significantly. On 9/26, the 3M direct - discount rate for national - share bills was 1.45% (1.33% on 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 1.34% (1.25% on 9/19); the 6M direct - discount rate was 0.92% (unchanged from 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 0.85% (0.86% on 9/19) [30]. 3.1.4 Capital Review: Cross - quarter Capital Costs First Rose and Then Fell - **Capital sentiment index**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, the capital market tightened in the middle of the week, and the capital sentiment index reached 60 on Wednesday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened [33]. - **Capital price**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, capital interest rates rose from Tuesday to Thursday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened. On 9/26, DR001 decreased by about 15bp to 1.32% compared with 9/19, and DR007 increased by 2bp to 1.53% [36]. - **Capital stratification**: Affected by the cross - quarter period, the spread between DR007 and DR001 widened by 17BP compared with the previous week. During the past week, two new shares were subscribed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and GC001 rose to a maximum of 1.69% [37]. - **Pledged - repurchase trading volume and overnight trading volume ratio**: The overnight trading volume ratio is still relatively high but has decreased compared with the previous week. Affected by the cross - quarter period, overnight trading volume decreased significantly. Generally, "rolling overnight" is still a good strategy under the condition of loose capital. On 9/26, the overnight trading volume ratios of DR, R, and GC were 89%, 37%, and 86% respectively, still at a relatively high level [42]. - **Capital supply and demand**: Currently, the net financing of large - scale banks is still at a seasonal high. On 9/26, the net financing of the banking system was 3.8 trillion yuan, including 4 trillion yuan from large - scale banks, and joint - stock banks turned to net financing. The net financing demand of core institutions in the non - banking system remained basically stable, and the net financing scale of funds, securities firms, insurance companies, and other products was 5.54 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that on 9/19. The net financing scale of core net - financing providers in the non - banking system (money - market funds, wealth - management products, and other institutions) decreased slightly. In terms of different maturities, large - scale banks' net financing is mainly overnight; funds and securities firms' net financing is mainly R001; insurance companies and other products have longer financing maturities, mainly R007; money - market funds have a small amount of net financing in R001 and a large amount of net financing in R007 and R014 [46]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Continuous Net Repayment, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable - **Issuance situation**: In the past week, the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 673.6 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 308.6 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was about 574 billion yuan. In terms of different issuers, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past week was in the order of state - owned banks (313 billion yuan)> city commercial banks (236.1 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (201.5 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (36.1 billion yuan). In terms of different maturities, the weighted issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly in the past week, and the weighted issuance term of state - owned, joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.43 years [53]. - **Primary and secondary market prices**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different maturities for state - owned and joint - stock banks remained basically stable. The average issuance interest rates of state - owned banks for 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y in the week were 1.59%, 1.58%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.69% respectively. The secondary - market yield of certificates of deposit increased slightly. On 9/26, the 1Y AAA certificate of deposit's maturity yield was 1.69%, up 1BP from 9/19 [58].