Group 1 - The report emphasizes the application of the "2+1" thinking model, which includes expectation thinking, trading thinking, and marginal thinking, in the investment process of major asset classes [6][9][10] - The overall risk of major assets is controllable, with domestic stocks, gold, commodities, domestic bonds, and US stocks being suitable for strategic allocation based on expectation perspectives [6][10][11][13] - The report highlights the need for tactical adjustments in asset positions, particularly in domestic stocks and gold, which suggest a cautious short-term approach but a relatively optimistic medium-term outlook [6][10][39] Group 2 - The trading characteristics of major assets show differentiation, with domestic stocks and gold experiencing a significant strengthening in trading trends since September, while other assets remain relatively stable [6][22][26] - The report indicates that trading sentiment for domestic stocks and gold has increased in the short term, but medium-term uncertainties are decreasing [22][30][39] - The report suggests that the trading trends for commodities and US stocks have weakened since September, with a neutral outlook for domestic bonds [39][20] Group 3 - Domestic stocks are supported by the DDM model, reflecting expectations of earnings and growth, while the risk evaluation has been improving [10][11] - Domestic bonds face uncertainties due to interest rate and inflation expectations, but the risks are still manageable [11][19] - Gold remains optimistic based on expectations of US real interest rates and global monetary system restructuring, with a neutral to slightly positive outlook for commodities [13][17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for investment analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding different consumer behaviors and their impact on consumption patterns and investment opportunities [2][3][26]. Group 1: Marginal Propensity to Consume - Marginal propensity to consume is a key concept in Keynesian economics, indicating the proportion of additional income that is spent on consumption [2]. - A higher MPC leads to greater returns on government investment, but the pandemic has caused a decline in MPC, resulting in lower economic multipliers [3][4]. - The stability of MPC is influenced by consumer psychology, lifestyle habits, and social culture, which can vary significantly among different demographic groups [20][21][22]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Analysis - The article identifies two distinct consumer groups with different MPCs, which affects their spending behavior and investment implications [9][12]. - For example, two families with the same income can exhibit vastly different consumption patterns based on their spending habits, with one family being more conservative and the other more liberal in their spending [10][11][13]. - The differences in MPC among these groups highlight that consumption growth is not solely driven by income increases but rather by the spending behavior of those most willing to spend [13][15]. Group 3: Consumption Trends and Recovery - The article outlines the sequence of consumption decline and recovery, noting that high MPC groups tend to recover faster than low MPC groups during economic upturns [34][35]. - During the consumption downturn from 2020 to 2021, traditional discretionary goods were the first to be affected, while new consumption categories remained resilient until later in the downturn [31][32]. - The recovery process is characterized by a reversal of the decline sequence, with new consumption categories leading the recovery, particularly those associated with high MPC consumers [35][37].