Group 1: Company Insights - Qilu Bank (601665) is identified as a growth-oriented city commercial bank in Shandong province, with expected continued high profit growth supported by regional expansion and favorable non-performing asset generation [5] - The target price for Qilu Bank is set at 7.47 CNY per share, representing a 33% upside potential based on a 2026 target PB valuation of 0.85x [5] - Revenue projections for Qilu Bank are estimated at 13,019 million CNY, 13,652 million CNY, and 14,494 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 5,708 million CNY, 6,396 million CNY, and 7,144 million CNY [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive parts industry, particularly in passenger car seating, is noted for its high design barriers and substantial profit margins in high-end models, indicating significant valuation upside potential for the sector [3][19] - The report highlights the resilience of Middle Eastern exports, driven by non-oil economic transformation, with strong import growth supported by fiscal and sovereign fund initiatives [10] - The bond market is expected to experience moderate recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in credit varieties, as the market is currently viewed as having limited negative factors [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a shift in focus from investment to consumption to stimulate economic growth and counteract the negative cycle of demand, sales, and investment willingness in China [5][7]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Weak consumption has become the main theme for the year, with retail sales in November only increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, and an expected annual growth of about 4% [5]. - The household sector is experiencing a "balance sheet contraction" during the real estate downturn, with defensive savings surging, leading to household deposits exceeding 162 trillion yuan [5]. - The GDP deflator has been negative for over two years, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative for eight and a half years, indicating persistent price contraction that erodes corporate profits [5]. Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand structure remains heavily reliant on investment and exports, with capital formation accounting for 30% of the global economy, while final consumption only accounts for 13.5% [7]. - The trade surplus in manufactured goods is equivalent to 10% of GDP, and the past decade's focus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased investment, further suppressing prices [7]. Group 3: Consumption Challenges - The article highlights that consumer spending is hindered by low income and social security disparities, with service consumption in China at only 46%, significantly lower than the 20 percentage points below that of the US and Europe [7]. - The Engel coefficient remains close to 30%, indicating a high proportion of income spent on basic needs, which limits the willingness to consume among lower-income groups [7]. Group 4: New Consumption and Structural Reform - New consumption trends, such as the rise of Generation Z, single-person economies, and self-care spending, are emerging in lower-tier markets, providing a counterbalance to traditional consumption declines [8]. - To convert potential into sustained momentum, significant reforms are necessary, including substantial transfer payments and income distribution reforms, alongside easing service industry access and enhancing efficiency through digitalization and AI [8].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 雪涛宏观笔记 理财、货基、保险、基金，谁能够在"存款搬家"中分得一杯羹？ 事实二："存款搬家"从2024年开始成为话题，对应的是居民超额配置存款意愿下降。 随着存款利率下行，从2024年开始，居民配置存款的意愿回落。2024年、2025年居民新增定期存款均在 12万亿左右。按照估算，居民新增存款占新增金融资产的比重在68%左右，显著低于2022、2023年的 89%、79%。这意味着2021年以来的居民超额存款行为已经接近尾声。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年，在存款利率大幅下行的背景下，随着此前高息的三、五年期定期存款到期，居民部门"存款搬 家"再度成为市场的关注焦点。在分析"存款搬家"时，我们需要先说清楚以下几点事实。 事实一：当前市场讨论的"存款搬家"话题，恰好对应的是三年前市场讨论的"超额储蓄"问题。 当时受地产下行、消费意愿回落等因素影响，居民部门开始大幅增配定期存款。2022年新增住户存款 17.8万亿，其中定期存款13.7万亿。2023年虽然新增住户存款下滑至16.6万亿，但定期存款新增16万 亿，占新增住户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the expiration of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the potential shifts in asset allocation among residents [3][41]. Group 1: Background and Context - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the "excess savings" issue discussed three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and declining consumer sentiment. In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion yuan, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion yuan. In 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion yuan, but fixed-term deposits still made up 96% of this amount [4][41]. - The formation of excess savings from 2022 to 2023 can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets where residents redeemed wealth management products in favor of deposits [4][9]. Group 2: Future Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate funds to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion yuan for both 2024 and 2025. The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [9][10]. - By 2026, the maturity of fixed-term deposits for residents is estimated to be around 70 trillion yuan, with a peak in the first quarter. The total maturity of fixed-term deposits is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [16][17]. Group 3: Deposit Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for deposits is approximately 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be reinvested rather than withdrawn from the banking system. The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to drop to around 88% in 2024 [20][21]. - If the renewal rate decreases to 80%, the potential outflow of deposits could be around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in an outflow of approximately 7 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The primary destinations for migrating deposits are low-risk assets, such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions. The majority of residents are risk-averse, with 96% of their financial assets allocated to low-risk and no-risk assets [23][24]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, wealth management products by 2.8 trillion yuan, and insurance by 4.1 trillion yuan. The relationship between insurance and deposits may evolve as deposit rates decline [29][30]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Implications - The behavior of residents regarding high-risk assets is largely dependent on market conditions, with significant increases in holdings during bullish markets. For instance, the net value of bond funds held by individuals rose from 399 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, but growth slowed in 2025 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes that the migration of deposits does not necessarily correlate with an increase in early loan repayments, as the majority of maturing deposits are from short-term fixed deposits, which typically have lower interest rates compared to existing mortgage rates [38].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 财经五月花 摘 要 中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找新动能，即培育 非地产的增长拉动因素 文|顾欣宇 编辑|张威 北京时间2026年1月20日，在高盛2026年中国宏观经济及资本市场动态展望媒体交流圆桌会上，高盛首 席中国经济学家闪辉预计，2026年中国实际国内生产总值（GDP）增速为4.8%，高于4.5%的市场共识 预测。她强调，中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找 新动能，即培育非地产的增长拉动因素。 闪辉表示，近年来，中国经济的两个重要领域（贸易和房地产）发生了重大变化。在贸易方面，中国在 美国总进口中的份额从2000年开始一直到2024年之后发生了大的转换。2000年中国占美国所有进口的比 例是7.5%。中国进入了世界贸易组织（WTO）之后，这条线一路往上走，最高的时候超过了20%。两 次贸易战之后，这个数字又回到了7.5%的位置。房地产的新开工率方面，从2000年到2020年，房地产 高歌猛进，但是2020年之后新房开工率的数字掉得非常厉害，在2024 ...

智通财经记者 | 张一诺 近期，市场关于"天量存款到期"与"存款搬家"的讨论甚嚣尘上，一个宏大的流动性释放叙事逻辑——天量存款到期，居民储蓄如潮水般涌入股市——似乎正 在酝酿。然而，叙事与现实之间存在着巨大差异。 据机构普遍测算，2026年将有数十万亿元的定期存款到期。这些巨额资金会否流向资本市场，引发热议。 分析人士指出，历史经验表明，绝大多数年份银行存款留存率都在90%以上，分流出去的资金主要去向包括消费、购房、偿债以及银行理财、保险等稳健型 金融产品。相比庞大的到期规模，关注约6万亿"超额储蓄"的释放节奏更为关键，而这最终取决于宏观经济基本面、房地产市场走势以及居民信心与风险偏 好的实质性改善。 国信证券分析师王剑对智通财经表示，此轮存款增量东部沿海区域贡献更大，这或许意味着高收入群体新增存款规模较大。由于高收入群体投资意愿更高， 激发出的资产配置弹性也会更大，或成为进入股市的核心力量。 但另一方面，2026年与2017年、2021年所处的宏观基本面和流动性环境有极大的不同。比如，前两轮都出现了工业品价格（PPI）明显回升和企业盈利改善 的现象，而当前PPI同比尚未转正；前两轮均有房地产市场的显著回暖作 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the banking sector and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of the Chinese economy from 2022 to 2025, highlighting the impact of low interest rates on asset allocation adjustments [1][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments - **Excess Savings Formation**: Between 2022 and 2025, residents are expected to accumulate approximately 6 trillion yuan in excess savings, with a high savings tendency of around 21% in 2025, indicating that investment and consumption marginal tendencies have not significantly improved [1][5][4]. - **Deposit Maturity Estimates**: The estimated maturity scale of residents' fixed-term deposits for 2026 is about 75 trillion yuan, with 67 trillion yuan maturing in one year or more, which is higher than the market's average estimate of around 50 trillion yuan [6][1]. - **Impact of Mortgage Rate Cuts**: The reduction in mortgage rates is expected to decrease the prepayment amount to approximately 3 trillion yuan in 2025, alleviating the pressure on borrowers to repay loans early due to lower borrowing costs [7][8]. - **Financial Disintermediation**: Despite the existence of financial disintermediation, the majority of funds (93% in 2024) remain within the banking system, limiting the actual impact on financial markets [10][1]. - **Large Maturity Amounts**: In the first quarter of 2026, a significant amount of large fixed-term deposits is expected to mature, reaching 29 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 4 trillion yuan [11][1]. - **Comparison with Previous Economic Cycles**: The current low-interest-rate environment has led to a significant accumulation of excess savings, with the ratio of deposits to A-share market value being high, similar to 2017 and 2021. However, the current Producer Price Index (PPI) remains in negative growth, and corporate profitability recovery is weaker compared to previous cycles [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Slow Deposit Activation**: While there is a slight recovery in both corporate and individual demand deposits, the overall activation of deposits is slow, with external capital inflows into the stock market not fully forming a sustained trend [14][2]. - **Market Narrative vs. Reality**: The current market narrative regarding deposit migration does not necessarily indicate an increase in risk appetite. Historical data shows that over 90% of deposits remain in the banking system, and the focus should be on the direction of the 6 trillion yuan in excess savings, which depends on a substantial change in residents' risk preferences [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant amount of deposits maturing in 2026, estimated to exceed 160 trillion yuan, and the implications for potential "deposit migration" into the capital markets, emphasizing the need for a rational perspective on where these funds will flow in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Deposit Maturity Estimates - Various institutions have provided differing estimates on the scale of maturing deposits, with a consensus indicating that the amount could reach between 160 trillion and 170 trillion yuan in 2026, with approximately 70 trillion yuan of one-year and longer-term deposits maturing, marking an increase of about 10 trillion yuan from 2025 [3][4][6]. - According to CICC's latest estimates, the total amount of maturing resident deposits in 2026 is around 75 trillion yuan, with one-year and above deposits accounting for approximately 67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% and 17% respectively [6][11]. Institutional Insights - State-owned banks are identified as the primary source of maturing deposits due to their large deposit bases and lower interest rates, with estimates suggesting that the six major banks will have around 57 trillion yuan in maturing deposits in 2026 [7][10]. - The distribution of long-term deposits varies among different types of banks, with rural commercial banks having a higher proportion compared to joint-stock banks [7]. Deposit Retention and Migration - Historically, over 90% of deposits tend to remain within the banking system, with the retention rate for deposits remaining high at around 96% in 2025 [10][11]. - The article highlights that while some deposit migration is expected, the majority of deposits are likely to stay in banks due to stable risk preferences among residents and liquidity management needs [10][11]. Potential Investment Channels - The primary channels for potential deposit migration include consumption, home purchases, loan repayments, and diversified financial products such as bank wealth management, insurance, and mutual funds, with direct stock market entry being a less common route [12][13]. - The article notes that only about 6% of the total deposits are allocated for financial asset configuration, indicating a cautious approach among the general public towards entering the stock market [13][14]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The growth of non-bank deposits has been significant, with bank wealth management products contributing the most to this increase, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among high-net-worth individuals [14]. - The article suggests that the recovery of resident confidence in 2026 may lead to increased investment in various asset management products, particularly among higher-income groups, which could stimulate further capital market activity [14].

"天量"存款到期"叙事"的来龙去脉。 市场对"天量"存款到期的讨论实际上可以追溯到2022-2023年的居民长期限存款的高增长：当时两年居民存 款净增28万亿元，相比2021年的水平形成约5万亿元的长期限"超额存款"，这一部分存款在2025-2026年陆续到期。但我们认为存款并非居民储蓄 的唯一形式，居民储蓄应同时将存款和银行理财产品纳入考虑范围。实际上，2022-2023年的存款高增长实际上主要由于理财的再配置，当时由于 债市利率迅速上行导致理财产品出现净值回撤和赎回的"负反馈"。因此，我们认为这一部分"超额存款"的性质上与理财产品近似，主要在低风险 偏好资产中进行配置切换。 如何衡量存款搬家的潜力？ 相比市场关注的存款到期"叙事"，我们认为综合考虑居民存款和理财的"超额储蓄"更为关键。我们使用每年居民储蓄/ 可支配收入测算储蓄率，将超出长期趋势水平的储蓄作为"超额储蓄"。根据我们的测算，2022年-2025年期间居民共形成约6万亿元超额储蓄，并 且2025年居民储蓄倾向仍然位于21%左右的高位，显示出虽然资本市场回暖，居民投资和消费的边际倾向总体上并未明显提升。 因此，我们认为 当前市场"存款搬家"叙事并 ...