关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 "存款搬家"：市场误解了什么？ 误解一：可能低估超额储蓄；"存款搬家"不只是存款 市场关于"超额储蓄"的讨论多关注定期存款、忽视了理财资金规模。基于存款计算的超额储蓄少于4万亿，但考 虑各类资金后全口径超额储蓄接近10万亿，市场算法或低估入市资金。 误解二：可能低估入市速度；非银存款无法准确跟踪"搬家" "非银存款"常被跟踪"搬家"规模，但该指标包括同业业务扰动。"非银净负债"可剔除上述扰动，"9.24"以来其出 现两轮高增，或预示居民出现两轮"存款搬家"，今年下半年更明显。 误解三：可能低估投资属性；超额储蓄主体对资产价格敏感度较高 2021年来居民超额储蓄过度配置固收类资产，但后者超额收益明显下行，较难满足房价下行加快背景下居民的 再投资意愿。2026年伴随名义GDP逐步修复，资金"再平衡"过程或得以延续。 周度研究成果汇总 （12.13-12.19） 首经观点 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第61期: 《流动性 "顺风"》 2、"洞见系列" 第106期: 《两个美国: "K型经济"的成因与出路》 3、 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "女士，您有一笔定期存款快要到期了，目前我行3年期存款利率最高能到1.75%，1万（元）起存，额 度有限。一万（元）以下是1.6%，您可以考虑办理续存。"近期，家住北京的扬子（化名）收到了来自 某股份行客户经理的电话提示。这笔资金是她两年前以2.35%的年利率存入这家银行，手机银行显示， 目前该行2年期定存利率只有1.4%。 随着存款利率持续下行、权益市场热度提升，面对大量定期存款到期，银行一方面将在重定价中迎来负 债成本进一步下降，另一方面则面临存款流失压力。而作为"存款搬家"的一个重要方向，今年以来资本 市场对这一趋势的关注和讨论不断升温。 有机构测算结果显示，如果综合考虑历史经验和当前超额储蓄情况，未来"存款搬家"入市的潜在规模至 少是万亿级的。从定期存款到期规模来看，2024年之前存入、2026年之后到期的规模超过60万亿元。但 也有机构人士提示称，社会财富流向资本市场是一个长期过程，应该理性看待。相比之下，超30万亿元 规模的理财产品离资本市场更近，含权类理财的未来空间更值得关注。 "存款搬家"潜力来自哪里？ 不同于上述客户经 ...

随着存款利率持续下行、权益市场热度提升，面对大量定期存款到期，银行一方面将在重定价中迎来 负债成本进一步下降，另一方面则面临存款流失压力。而作为"存款搬家"的一个重要方向，今年以 来资本市场对这一趋势的关注和讨论不断升温。 有机构测算结果显示，如果综合考虑历史经验和当前超额储蓄情况，未来"存款搬家"入市的潜在规 模至少是万亿级的。从定期存款到期规模来看，2024年之前存入、2026年之后到期的规模超过60 万亿元。但也有机构人士提示称，社会财富流向资本市场是一个长期过程，应该理性看待。相比之 下，超30万亿元规模的理财产品离资本市场更近，含权类理财的未来空间更值得关注。 2025.12. 17 本文字数：3361，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 "女士，您有一笔定期存款快要到期了，目前我行3年期存款利率最高能到1.75%，1万（元）起存， 额度有限。一万（元）以下是1.6%，您可以考虑办理续存。"近期，家住北京的扬子（化名）收到 了来自某股份行客户经理的电话提示。这笔资金是她两年前以2.35%的年利率存入这家银行，手机 银行显示，目前该行2年期定存利率只有1.4%。 "存款 搬家"潜力来自哪里 ...

Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is gaining attention as deposit rates decline and capital markets heat up, with a potential scale of at least trillions of yuan entering the market [1][2] - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of time deposits, particularly those with high interest rates, is expected to create liquidity for capital markets [2][3] - The shift in savings behavior, driven by lower interest rates and changing investment preferences, indicates a long-term process of wealth flowing into capital markets [7][9] Deposit Migration Potential - The potential for "deposit migration" is significant, with estimates suggesting that over 60 trillion yuan in time deposits will mature after 2024, creating a substantial liquidity source for capital markets [1][3] - The current environment shows a slowdown in the growth of household time deposits, indicating a shift towards more liquid investment options [5][9] - The trend of "deposit migration" is not just about moving deposits to stocks but also involves reallocating funds into various financial products, including wealth management and bonds [8][9] Impact on Financial Products - Financial institutions are increasingly guiding clients towards stable, low-risk wealth management products as an alternative to traditional time deposits [2][8] - The growth of wealth management products, particularly those with equity components, is expected to increase, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in additional funds to the capital market by 2027 [10] - The shift in asset allocation from fixed-income products to equity-related investments reflects changing investor preferences and the need for higher returns [6][10] Economic Context - The overall savings rate has reached a 15-year high, indicating a significant amount of excess savings that could be redirected into various investment avenues [7][8] - The decline in the attractiveness of traditional time deposits, especially those with rates above 3%, is prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies among households [6][9] - The anticipated liquidity from maturing deposits is viewed as a potential catalyst for increased risk appetite in capital markets [2][3]

摘要 近期市场对"存款搬家"重视度上升，但截至目前仍至少存在三点误解。 （一）误解一：可能低估超额储蓄；"存款搬家"不只是存款。 居民存款≠居民全口径储蓄，存款下降≠储蓄入市。 市场关于"存款搬家"的讨论多关注定期存款，认为定 期存款"活期化"是主要途径；但近十年居民定期存款变化多源于"存款与理财转换"的结构性影响，并非 进入股市，譬如2023年以来，以及2018年（资管新规导致表外资金回表，推高居民存款）。我们构建涵 盖居民存款、理财等各类资金的全口径储蓄指标，更准确跟踪居民储蓄变化。 超额储蓄规模大于超额存款，居民将理财资金转配股市也值得关注。 市场基于存款测算居民"超额储 蓄"规模为3.7万亿左右，忽视了理财形成的"超额储蓄"；我们基于全口径储蓄指标，以储蓄率额外上升的 幅度来刻画超额储蓄，目前居民储蓄率达近十五年新高（29.8%），对应超额储蓄规模达9.4万亿以上； 该指标也囊括理财进入股市的潜在规模，更准确跟踪入市资金。 参考历史经验，未来居民储蓄进入股市的潜在规模或在万亿级别以上。 复盘两轮牛市经验，2007年前， 居民超额储蓄规模少，但储蓄进入股市规模达1.6万亿（存量储蓄进入股市）；2014年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market has misunderstood the concept of "deposit migration," highlighting three main misconceptions regarding excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [2][9]. Group 1: Misunderstanding Excess Savings - The discussion around "deposit migration" often equates a decrease in deposits with an increase in market investments, overlooking the role of wealth management products [3][10]. - The constructed comprehensive savings indicator shows that excess savings are significantly larger than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% savings rate, the highest in 15 years [3][26]. - Historical analysis indicates that potential market entry from excess savings could exceed one trillion yuan, with past bull markets showing substantial amounts of savings entering the stock market [4][31]. Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The reliance on "non-bank deposits" to track migration is flawed, as it includes interbank business disturbances, leading to an underestimation of the speed at which residents are entering the market [5][34]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" metric provides a more accurate reflection of market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024, suggesting a potential addition of 8,000 billion yuan to securities trading margin [5][37]. - Auxiliary indicators, such as margin deposits and financing balances, indicate a notable "deposit migration" phenomenon, with significant increases in both metrics since mid-2024 [6][41]. Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, excess savings in China since 2021 have shown a stronger investment characteristic, primarily influenced by changes in asset allocation rather than direct consumption support [7][49]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has been a major contributor to excess savings, with a significant decline in housing consumption from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [7][53]. - The current environment of declining fixed-income asset yields is pushing residents to seek new investment opportunities, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation behavior [7][63].

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The scale of excess savings is underestimated; excess savings exceed excess deposits, with a potential market entry scale of over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][33] - The current household savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][33] - The market's calculation of excess savings based on deposits alone (approximately 3.7 trillion yuan) ignores the impact of wealth management products[2][30] Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations of household funds entering the market, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][38] - Non-bank deposits amount to 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market (settlement margin) are only 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy[4][39] - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing substantial increases since September 2024[4][41] Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][59] - The reduction in housing expenditure has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][59] - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, indicating a pressing need for asset reallocation among residents[6][64]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The market underestimates the scale of excess savings, which is greater than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][34]. - The household savings rate has reached a near 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][34]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed 1 trillion yuan, based on historical experiences from previous bull markets[3][38]. Group 2: Misunderstandings about Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][42]. - Non-bank deposits total approximately 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market are only about 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a mismatch in tracking methods[4][42]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024[4][44]. Group 3: Misunderstandings about Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][63]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][63]. - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, suggesting a greater urgency for asset reallocation among residents[6][69].

理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.12.10 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。本篇报告我们基于存款搬家、居民风偏、产品货架、监管导 向、资产配置等多维度进行拆解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is expected to achieve unexpected growth in 2025, driven by deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, while facing valuation adjustment pressures in 2026 [2] Group 1: Resident Risk Preference Insights - In 2026, residents are expected to show a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of more liquid deposits and asset management products [4] - The average decline in retail deposit rates in 2025 was approximately 30 basis points, with a significant slowdown in new fixed-term deposits, while demand for liquid deposits and wealth management products increased [4] - A total of 32 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, with a repricing range of 70-170 basis points, indicating potential for further deposit migration [4][19] Group 2: Fund Flow from Excess Savings - From 2020 to 2025, an excess savings of 14.4 trillion yuan was generated, with a projected decrease in the savings rate to around 14.6% in 2025 [5][26] - A 1 percentage point decrease in the savings rate could release approximately 0.9 trillion yuan into wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][26] - The potential for an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in activated funds flowing into non-fixed deposit investments in 2026 is anticipated [5][26] Group 3: Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The wealth management industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% in 2026, expanding by 2.6 trillion yuan to reach 36 trillion yuan, despite challenges from valuation adjustments [29] - Low-volatility fixed-income products will remain the core offering, while the growth of rights-based wealth management products is expected to accelerate [30][31] - The supply of long-term closed-end wealth management products is anticipated to increase due to the need for stable liabilities and the development of retirement financial products [36] Group 4: Market Impact and Fund Inflows - Wealth management institutions are projected to increase their equity asset allocation by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in 2026, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds to the capital market [6][39] - The demand for bond ETFs and rights-based funds is expected to grow rapidly, driven by external collaborations and the need for wealth management institutions to enhance returns [6][39] - The third phase of public fund fee reform may lead to increased allocation of bond ETFs by wealth management institutions, while short-term pure bond funds may face redemption pressures [6][39] Group 5: Supply-Side Reform Opportunities - The supply-side reform in wealth management is accelerating, with smaller banks exiting the wealth management business, creating opportunities for leading institutions to increase market share [49] - The market share of the top five wealth management institutions is expected to rise as regulatory tightening continues to limit the issuance of new wealth management licenses [49]