Group 1: Deposit Maturity Impact - The estimated scale of large-scale fixed deposit maturities in 2026 is approximately CNY 63.6 trillion, an increase of about CNY 9.2 trillion compared to 2025, exceeding the historical level of CNY 30-40 trillion[2] - The majority of low-risk funds are expected to remain within the banking system through renewals or conversion to bank wealth management products, creating a stable "internal circulation" pattern[2] - The systematic decline in bank liability costs may support the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, opening up policy space for "dual reductions"[2] Group 2: Reasons for Deposit Maturity - The surge in deposit maturities is primarily due to "wealth management migration" and "excess savings" from 2022 to 2023, with excess savings estimated at CNY 13 trillion[2] - The scale of wealth management products decreased from CNY 29.16 trillion in mid-2022 to CNY 25.34 trillion in mid-2023, reflecting a shift towards deposit tools[2] - The average growth rate of residents' disposable income dropped from 8.2% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2022, leading to increased savings behavior among residents[2] Group 3: Future Fund Allocation - Most funds from maturing deposits are expected to remain within the banking system rather than flowing into capital markets, as the core demand is for capital safety rather than maximizing returns[2] - The narrative around "massive deposit maturities" may have a significant psychological impact on market behavior, but the actual effect on capital market fund flows is likely limited[2] - Historical experiences regarding fund flows into real estate may not apply in the current context due to significant changes in the real estate market dynamics[2] Group 4: Alternative Investment Products - The market for alternative products such as public FOFs and "fixed income+" funds is expanding, with the scale of "fixed income+" funds reaching CNY 2.76 trillion in 2025, a significant increase from CNY 1.71 trillion in 2024[2] - Insurance products are also gaining traction, with a 34% year-on-year increase in regular premium income in January 2025, reflecting a shift towards stable return products[2] - The structural shift towards alternative investment products is indicative of a broader transformation in residents' wealth management strategies in a low-interest-rate environment[2]

Group 1: Deposit Maturity Impact - The estimated scale of large-scale fixed deposit maturities in 2026 is approximately CNY 63.6 trillion, an increase of about CNY 9.2 trillion compared to 2025, exceeding the historical level of CNY 30-40 trillion[1] - The majority of low-risk funds are expected to remain within the banking system through renewals or transfers to bank wealth management products, creating a stable "internal circulation" pattern[1] - The systematic decline in bank liability costs may provide strong support for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year[1] Group 2: Reasons for Deposit Maturity - The surge in deposit maturities is primarily due to "wealth management migration" and "excess savings" from 2022 to 2023, with excess savings estimated at CNY 13 trillion[1] - The scale of wealth management products decreased from CNY 29.16 trillion in mid-2022 to CNY 25.34 trillion in mid-2023, reflecting a significant shift towards deposit tools[1] - The growth in urban residents' disposable income slowed to 3.9% in 2022, leading to increased savings as a financial buffer, resulting in a record CNY 17.8 trillion in new resident deposits[1] Group 3: Future Fund Allocation - Most funds are expected to remain in the banking system, with a focus on low-risk products rather than flowing into capital markets[1] - The narrative around deposit maturity may amplify market emotions but has limited actual impact on capital market fund flows[1] - Historical experiences may not apply directly to the current real estate market, which has undergone significant changes, making it unlikely to absorb large inflows of funds from maturing deposits[1] Group 4: Alternative Investment Products - The market for alternatives to fixed deposits, such as "fixed income+" products and FOFs, is expanding significantly, with "fixed income+" fund scale projected to reach CNY 2.76 trillion by 2025[1] - Insurance products are also gaining traction, with a 34% year-on-year increase in insurance premiums in January 2025, reflecting a shift towards stable return products[1] - The structural shift towards these alternative products indicates a transformation in residents' asset allocation strategies in response to low interest rates and regulatory changes[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the upcoming maturity of approximately 76-77 trillion yuan in residential time deposits in 2026, highlighting the potential for a shift in asset allocation as these deposits transition from high-interest rates above 3% to lower rates of 1.2%-1.5% [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2026, the total maturity of residential time deposits is estimated to be around 76-77 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [11][24]. - The maturity pressure is expected to be seasonal, with approximately 32-34 trillion yuan maturing in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a "peak in the first quarter" characteristic [12][24]. - The increase in maturity volume from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate observed in 2025 [16][24]. Group 2: High-Interest Deposits - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of the maturing deposits are high-interest deposits with a term of two years or more, constituting about 32% of the total maturity volume [3][20]. - The marginal increase in high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 is about 4.6 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a gradual rather than sudden change [20][24]. - The experience from 2025 shows that despite facing re-pricing pressure, the renewal rate of deposits remained close to 90%, suggesting resilience in deposit behavior [3][26]. Group 3: Asset Reallocation - The focus of the market is shifting from "whether to renew" to "where to allocate" the funds post-maturity, with expectations that a portion of the maturing deposits will flow into other asset classes [4][30]. - The anticipated outflow rate of around 10-15% from the maturing deposits could significantly influence market pricing, especially in the stock and bond markets [4][30]. - The ongoing discussions around the reallocation of deposits and the implications for market liquidity and asset pricing are becoming increasingly relevant as the maturity date approaches [5][7].

Macro - The article discusses the significant amount of "excess savings" in the market, estimated at 16 trillion yuan, which will face lower interest rates of 1.2%-1.5% by 2026, potentially triggering a shift of deposits to other assets [2] - The total amount of maturing deposits in 2026 is projected to be around 76-77 trillion yuan, with a notable seasonal peak in the first quarter, where approximately 32-34 trillion yuan will mature [2][4] - The year-on-year increase in maturing deposits from 2025 to 2026 is expected to be 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025 [2] Pressure Analysis - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, representing about 32% of the total maturing deposits, which is a key factor for renewal pressure [3] - The renewal rate for deposits maturing in 2025 is expected to remain resilient, with around 90% of deposits likely to be renewed despite lower interest rates [3] Core Contradiction - The focus for 2026 shifts from "whether to move" to "where to move," indicating a gradual and dispersed migration of deposits to other assets rather than a rapid shift [4] - Even with a hypothetical 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in maturing deposits, this could significantly impact the pricing in equity and bond markets [4]

Group 1: Company Insights - Qilu Bank (601665) is identified as a growth-oriented city commercial bank in Shandong province, with expected continued high profit growth supported by regional expansion and favorable non-performing asset generation [5] - The target price for Qilu Bank is set at 7.47 CNY per share, representing a 33% upside potential based on a 2026 target PB valuation of 0.85x [5] - Revenue projections for Qilu Bank are estimated at 13,019 million CNY, 13,652 million CNY, and 14,494 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 5,708 million CNY, 6,396 million CNY, and 7,144 million CNY [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive parts industry, particularly in passenger car seating, is noted for its high design barriers and substantial profit margins in high-end models, indicating significant valuation upside potential for the sector [3][19] - The report highlights the resilience of Middle Eastern exports, driven by non-oil economic transformation, with strong import growth supported by fiscal and sovereign fund initiatives [10] - The bond market is expected to experience moderate recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in credit varieties, as the market is currently viewed as having limited negative factors [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a shift in focus from investment to consumption to stimulate economic growth and counteract the negative cycle of demand, sales, and investment willingness in China [5][7]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Weak consumption has become the main theme for the year, with retail sales in November only increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, and an expected annual growth of about 4% [5]. - The household sector is experiencing a "balance sheet contraction" during the real estate downturn, with defensive savings surging, leading to household deposits exceeding 162 trillion yuan [5]. - The GDP deflator has been negative for over two years, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative for eight and a half years, indicating persistent price contraction that erodes corporate profits [5]. Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand structure remains heavily reliant on investment and exports, with capital formation accounting for 30% of the global economy, while final consumption only accounts for 13.5% [7]. - The trade surplus in manufactured goods is equivalent to 10% of GDP, and the past decade's focus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased investment, further suppressing prices [7]. Group 3: Consumption Challenges - The article highlights that consumer spending is hindered by low income and social security disparities, with service consumption in China at only 46%, significantly lower than the 20 percentage points below that of the US and Europe [7]. - The Engel coefficient remains close to 30%, indicating a high proportion of income spent on basic needs, which limits the willingness to consume among lower-income groups [7]. Group 4: New Consumption and Structural Reform - New consumption trends, such as the rise of Generation Z, single-person economies, and self-care spending, are emerging in lower-tier markets, providing a counterbalance to traditional consumption declines [8]. - To convert potential into sustained momentum, significant reforms are necessary, including substantial transfer payments and income distribution reforms, alongside easing service industry access and enhancing efficiency through digitalization and AI [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the upcoming maturity of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the shift in residents' savings behavior and asset allocation strategies [3][44]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Context - In 2026, the topic of "deposit migration" arises as high-interest fixed-term deposits mature, with a significant focus on the impact of declining deposit rates [3][44]. - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the previous discourse on "excess savings" three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and reduced consumption willingness [3][44]. - In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion, while in 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion, with fixed-term deposits making up 96% of this amount [3][44]. Group 2: Sources of Excess Deposits - The formation of excess deposits can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets from wealth management products to deposits [4][45]. - The total savings rate increased by 2 percentage points in 2022, with total savings rising by 3 trillion compared to 2021 [4][45]. Group 3: Future Deposit Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion for both 2024 and 2025 [6][48]. - The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [6][48]. Group 4: Maturity of Deposits - By 2026, the maturity scale of household fixed-term deposits is estimated to be around 70 trillion, with the first quarter being the peak maturity period [11][51]. - The estimated maturity of fixed-term deposits in 2026 is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [11][51]. Group 5: Deposit Renewal Rates - The deposit renewal rate is currently around 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be renewed rather than withdrawn from the banking system [15][55]. - The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to decline to around 88% in 2024 [15][55]. Group 6: Asset Allocation Post-Migration - The primary destinations for migrated deposits are low-risk assets such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions [5][59]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion and in wealth management products by 2.8 trillion [24][64]. Group 7: Impact of Market Conditions - The allocation to high-risk assets is primarily driven by market conditions rather than deposit migration, with significant fluctuations observed in the investment in securities and funds based on market performance [20][60]. - The proportion of funds flowing into risk assets is estimated to be between 13% and 20%, depending on market conditions, with a higher allocation during favorable market periods [21][61].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the expiration of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the potential shifts in asset allocation among residents [3][41]. Group 1: Background and Context - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the "excess savings" issue discussed three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and declining consumer sentiment. In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion yuan, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion yuan. In 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion yuan, but fixed-term deposits still made up 96% of this amount [4][41]. - The formation of excess savings from 2022 to 2023 can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets where residents redeemed wealth management products in favor of deposits [4][9]. Group 2: Future Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate funds to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion yuan for both 2024 and 2025. The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [9][10]. - By 2026, the maturity of fixed-term deposits for residents is estimated to be around 70 trillion yuan, with a peak in the first quarter. The total maturity of fixed-term deposits is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [16][17]. Group 3: Deposit Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for deposits is approximately 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be reinvested rather than withdrawn from the banking system. The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to drop to around 88% in 2024 [20][21]. - If the renewal rate decreases to 80%, the potential outflow of deposits could be around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in an outflow of approximately 7 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The primary destinations for migrating deposits are low-risk assets, such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions. The majority of residents are risk-averse, with 96% of their financial assets allocated to low-risk and no-risk assets [23][24]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, wealth management products by 2.8 trillion yuan, and insurance by 4.1 trillion yuan. The relationship between insurance and deposits may evolve as deposit rates decline [29][30]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Implications - The behavior of residents regarding high-risk assets is largely dependent on market conditions, with significant increases in holdings during bullish markets. For instance, the net value of bond funds held by individuals rose from 399 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, but growth slowed in 2025 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes that the migration of deposits does not necessarily correlate with an increase in early loan repayments, as the majority of maturing deposits are from short-term fixed deposits, which typically have lower interest rates compared to existing mortgage rates [38].

Core Viewpoint - China needs to seek new growth momentum from both foreign trade and domestic economy, focusing on non-US markets and non-real estate growth drivers [4][5][19]. Trade New Momentum - China's exports have successfully diversified away from the US, with the share of imports from the US dropping to 8.8% in 2025. Trade with ASEAN exceeded $1 trillion, with Central Asia surpassing $100 billion, and trade with Africa reaching nearly 2.5 trillion yuan [6][10][21]. - The report indicates that the actual growth rate of resident consumption is expected to decline from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, necessitating increased government consumption to stabilize growth [6][10][21]. Economic Challenges - The main challenge for China's economy is finding new growth momentum, particularly in light of a weak labor market and declining housing prices, which negatively impact consumer confidence [10][25]. - The report highlights that the savings rate has increased from 31.5% in 2024 to 33.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a potential for further capital reallocation if macroeconomic conditions improve [11][26]. Currency Exchange Rate - The forecast for the RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to rise to 6.85 by the end of 2026 and further to 6.54 by the end of 2027, reflecting a gradual appreciation trend [7][14][29]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing growth support with financial stability, and is expected to implement limited rate cuts in 2026 [15][30]. Inflation Expectations - Inflation in China is projected to be higher in 2026, with core CPI expected to rise from 0.7% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, and overall CPI from 0% to 0.6% [12][27]. - The anticipated increase in inflation may lead to a gradual rise in individual investors' demand for risk assets, with an estimated potential investment of around 2 trillion yuan in the stock market over the next 12 months [12][27].