● 本报记者 吴杨 2025年，银行业在波动中完成经营筑底，银行股走出了国有大行领涨、区域性龙头表现亮眼的结构性行 情。这一年里，行业扛住息差收窄的压力，同时迎来政策托底、资金增配的支撑，压力与机遇并存的格 局，推动银行股的投资逻辑从单纯的红利博弈转向深度价值重估。那么，2026年银行股行情将如何演 绎？ 红利托底估值 想要看清2026年银行股的走势，先要把握2025年的行业演变逻辑。 2025年银行股的结构性牛市特征明显。截至12月16日收盘，今年以来申万一级银行业指数上涨16.2%， 农业银行上涨近50%，厦门银行、重庆银行、青岛银行等区域性龙头上涨超20%，部分股份制银行涨幅 不足5%。 资金面分化成为2025年银行股的另一特征。正如兴业证券分析师陈绍兴所言，2025年各类资金力量分化 明显：险资、AMC等战略配置型资金保持较大的增持力度，夯实板块基本盘；公募基金、北向资金等 交易型资金随行情波动，三季度大幅减仓至较低位，当前流出压力已缓解；被动ETF资金流入放缓，宽 基ETF更多扮演市场稳定器的角色。 从估值角度看，申万一级银行业指数PB（市净率）从2023年的低点0.42倍升至2025年12月16日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience with stable net interest margins and a recovery in profit growth, with net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 1.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 0% [4][5]. - The average capital return rate stands at 8.18%, while the non-performing loan ratio is at 1.52%, slightly increasing by 3 basis points from the previous quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that the profit growth rate for commercial banks improved by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at 2.3% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit growth for commercial banks was 0%, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.3%, -2.1%, 1.7%, and -7.3% respectively [5][7]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters remained stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decrease of 11 basis points [24][25]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio slightly increasing to 1.52% and the provision coverage ratio maintaining above 200% [31][36]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan balance was 3.52 trillion yuan, with a provision coverage ratio of 207.2% [31][36]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector is entering a seasonal "tailwind" period, with expectations of strong performance in the coming months due to high dividend yields and low valuations [38][39]. - The banking index has outperformed the broader market indices, indicating a favorable investment environment [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large banks with stable fundamentals and good dividend yields, particularly those with strong regional economic resilience and attractive valuation [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of relative outperformance compared to market benchmarks [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the banking sector's performance in Q4 2025, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving fundamentals despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread to support net interest margins, with a focus on effective monetary policy transmission [9][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including targets like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [4]. 2. Large state-owned banks with solid defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]. Banking Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the banking industry, noting a stabilization in interest margins and a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on cross-cycle adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance [9][11]. - It also mentions the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to address risks in small financial institutions, suggesting that mergers and restructuring may accelerate [11]. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates and credit [9][10]. - It highlights that the credit growth rate is expected to decline marginally, with a projected loan growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025 [9]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread, with specific guidelines for banks to avoid issuing loans at rates lower than government bond yields [9][11]. - It notes that as of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for listed banks has stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank reported a slight decline in performance growth for Q1 2025, with revenue growth at 10.04%, pre-provision profit growth at 12.58%, and net profit growth at 13.81, while still maintaining a high level of performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changshu Bank's total assets increased by 6.67% year-on-year, with a total asset addition of 22.4 billion yuan, where financial investments contributed 11.7 billion yuan, accounting for 52.00% of the increase [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 2.61%, showing a year-on-year decline of 22 basis points but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2 basis points [4] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62.01% year-on-year, driven by a 495.23% rise in net fee income and a 48.84% increase in other non-interest income [4] Group 2: Asset and Liability Management - Retail loan demand remains weak, with retail loan balance growing only 0.1% year-on-year, and a quarterly addition of 0.3 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 2.7 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Corporate loans increased by 13.04% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 8.5 billion yuan, supporting overall loan growth [3] - The bank's deposit balance grew by 9.00% year-on-year, outpacing loan growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of demand deposits [3] Group 3: Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 0.76% at the end of Q1 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.56%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [5] - The bank is focusing on enhancing retail risk management, expecting to see a turning point in NPL generation rates as retail risks are gradually addressed [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 9.71% and a profit growth of 13.39% for 2025, with a target price of 9.63 yuan, equivalent to a 0.90X price-to-book ratio [6]