Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments, with notable growth in financial totals and a stable RMB exchange rate [1][2] - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [1] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 basis points and 60 basis points year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating an optimization in credit structure [1] Group 2 - The next steps involve implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample, and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable price levels and improving the interest rate adjustment framework to lower overall financing costs [2] - The central bank aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, supporting sectors like technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] Group 3 - The exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions is crucial for maintaining market stability and preventing systemic financial risks [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.85%, delaying a potential new surge in housing prices [5][8] - The decision to maintain the interest rate comes as inflation has returned to the target range of 2% to 3%, indicating that previous rate hikes have had an effect [5][8] - The RBA's monetary policy is aimed at controlling inflation, and while some believe it is time to lower rates, the committee prefers to wait for more information to confirm inflation trends [8][10] Group 2 - Melbourne's housing market is perceived as offering better value compared to Sydney, with detached houses being significantly cheaper [3][10] - The price dynamics in Melbourne show a decline in housing prices, contrasting with the 7.8% increase in Adelaide's housing prices over the past year [10][12] - The differences in housing market performance across regions are attributed to supply and demand dynamics rather than the overall interest rate policy [12][13] Group 3 - The increase in housing stock in Victoria, along with a decrease in population during the pandemic, has led to an increase in per capita housing availability [13] - In contrast, Western Australia is experiencing a decline in per capita housing availability, reaching historical lows [13] - The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) may emerge as a favorable option for homebuyers in the future, potentially mirroring Melbourne's current situation [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is prepared to implement flexible measures in response to a rapid increase in long-term interest rates, which may include increasing bond purchases and conducting fixed-rate bond purchase operations [1] Group 1 - The BOJ will consider increasing bond purchases as a response to rising long-term interest rates [1] - The central bank may also engage in fixed-rate bond purchase operations to manage interest rate fluctuations [1] - Additionally, the BOJ plans to utilize funding supply operations related to concentrated collateral [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 4.25%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and concerns over inflation and global geopolitical tensions [1][3][10] Economic Environment - The UK economy is facing a complex situation with a weakening job market and slowing wage growth, yet inflation remains above the Bank's target of 2% [3][4] - Global factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tech decoupling are impacting the UK's economic landscape, making it more challenging for the Bank to adjust interest rates [6][7] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current stance of the Bank of England is characterized as a "tactical wait," as inflation has not sufficiently decreased, and there are risks associated with lowering rates too quickly [3][4] - The Bank's decision to keep rates steady is seen as a strategy to control inflation expectations and avoid triggering a new wave of inflation or asset bubbles [4][6] Structural Economic Issues - The UK economy is losing growth drivers, with diminishing contributions from traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors are lagging behind competitors [7][9] - The government's limited fiscal space and reliance on the Bank's monetary policy for economic stimulus further complicate the situation [7][9] Market Expectations - Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential rate cuts, but the Bank of England is entering a "cautious easing" phase, where minor adjustments may not yield significant effects [9][10] - The upcoming months will be critical for assessing the Bank's ability to navigate economic challenges and maintain policy independence amid external pressures [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fluctuated. The rise was mainly due to the policy benefits brought by the simultaneous reduction of LPR and deposit rates, which strengthened the market's expectation of a further decline in the interest rate center, boosting medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds and short - term Treasury bond futures. However, as policies were implemented, combined with increased speculation on Sino - US negotiations and future economic data, risk appetite recovered, increasing the upward pressure on long - bond yields and causing the futures bond trend to become more differentiated and volatile. Additionally, the approaching supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on the fiscal side intensified market concerns about duration pressure. Overall, the subsequent trend still depends on economic data performance and fiscal policy rhythm [3]. - For the trading strategy, the 2509 contract is neutral in the context of falling repo rates and fluctuating Treasury bond futures prices. Traders are advised to pay attention to the widening of the basis. In terms of hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a 1.00% increase (+14.29%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a 0.50% increase (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.23, with a 0.53 increase (+0.54%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1980, with a 0.008 increase (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a 0.10 decrease (-6.31%); DR007 was 1.55, with a 0.11 decrease (-6.90%); R007 was 1.76, with a 0.21 decrease (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, with a 0.01 increase (+0.33%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 0.00 increase (+0.33%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.69 yuan, and 119.45 yuan respectively. The price changes were - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and +0.03% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.070 yuan, - 0.052 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, and - 0.162 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the central bank conducted a 454.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repo Rates**: The main - term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.410%, 1.515%, 1.579%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repo rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report provides figures on the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, including (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [35][40][41][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][46][57]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][56][59]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][69]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77][79].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1] - Multiple banks have also lowered their RMB deposit rates, which is expected to stabilize the net interest margin of commercial banks and effectively reduce the overall financing costs for the real economy [1][3] Group 1: LPR and Deposit Rate Adjustments - The recent LPR decrease aligns with market expectations, as the new monetary policy framework positions the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate, facilitating the transmission of interest rates from short to long [2] - The reduction in LPR is anticipated to lead to a more significant decrease in loan rates for enterprises and residents, thereby lowering financing costs and promoting investment and consumption [2] - The simultaneous reduction in deposit rates by major banks, including the six largest state-owned banks, is a proactive measure to maintain stable interest margins amid historically low financing costs [3] Group 2: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down 55 basis points year-on-year [3] - Experts suggest that if economic growth pressures increase in the second half of the year, there may be further room for LPR reductions, although expectations should be tempered regarding the pace and magnitude of future rate changes [4] - The current focus is on stabilizing interest margins and ensuring the sustainable operation of banks, with potential for further LPR declines if effective demand does not improve significantly [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and shifts its focus towards stabilizing growth. Given the increasing external shocks and the need to consolidate the domestic economic recovery, further monetary policy easing can be expected [2][26]. - Multiple quantitative monetary policy tools are continuously used to maintain sufficient liquidity, and the credit resources are mainly directed towards the "Five Major Articles", "consumption", and "stabilizing foreign trade". Price - based tools are still restricted by the net interest margin, and financial institutions may be guided to price rationally [2][26]. - With the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property, the pressure on the exchange rate to restrict monetary policy has eased [2][9]. - In the bond market, due to the need for stabilizing growth, the capital market may become looser, and bond yields still have room to decline. The central bank plans to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market to guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently [2][26]. - In terms of credit, the short - term credit risk may increase due to the uncertainty of the external environment, and attention should be paid to the progress of trade frictions, the sustainability of economic recovery, and the frequency and intensity of policy repairs [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tone - The monetary policy in Q1 2025 continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Politburo Meeting, emphasizing "flexibility" in policy implementation [8]. - Although the domestic economy started well in Q1, affected by the US tariff policy since April, the domestic export has been frustrated. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property has eased the exchange - rate pressure on monetary policy. The domestic monetary policy will still be "moderately loose" and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment [9]. Interest Rates - The Q1 report adds the statement of "reducing the bank's liability - side cost". With the adjustment of the MLF operation mechanism, the policy rate system has changed, and it is expected that the deposit rate will decline following the loan rate [10][12]. - In Q1 2025, the weighted average interest rate of new loans issued by financial institutions decreased. The central bank advocates promoting the decline of the comprehensive financing cost of SMEs by clarifying various financing costs [13]. Liquidity - The Q1 report aims to maintain sufficient liquidity. In the short - term, the capital market has changed from a tight - balance to a loose state. In the medium - and long - term, the central bank has adjusted various tools to supplement the capital gap. The reduction of the deposit - reserve ratio in May will release long - term liquidity and relieve the bank's net interest - margin pressure [15][16]. - The central bank has suspended the treasury - bond trading operation in Q1 and may resume it under specific conditions [17]. Credit - The Q1 report emphasizes increasing credit supply and guiding more credit resources to key areas and weak links. In addition to the previous areas, it also highlights "stabilizing foreign trade" [19][21]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on the "Five Major Articles", consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [21]. Bond Market Mechanism - The Q1 report proposes to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market, which will help guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently and solve existing problems in the science - innovation bond market [22][23]. - The central bank emphasizes strengthening investors' interest - rate risk management and points out that the pricing efficiency and risk - management ability of the bond market need to be improved [24].

Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the Guokai ETF (159650) rose by 0.05%, reaching a historical high of 106.72 yuan, with a trading volume of 8.14 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 26.92% [3] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the Guokai ETF was 10.74 billion yuan [3] - The Guokai ETF has seen a net inflow of 87.63 million yuan over the last seven trading days [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the expansion of structural tools, which exceeded market expectations [3] - Following the policy rate cuts, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are expected to decline, stabilizing bank interest margins [3] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Guokai ETF's net asset value increased by 5.53% over the past two years, with a historical monthly gain probability of 87.88% [4] - The fund has experienced a maximum drawdown of 0.43% this year, which is the smallest among comparable funds [5] - The management fee for the Guokai ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [5]

2025 年 5 月 7 日 总量研究 三类十项一揽子政策超预期 ——2025 年 5 月 7 日利率债观察 要点 1、三类十项一揽子政策超预期 在今日（注：2025 年 5 月 7 日）召开的新闻会上，潘功胜行长"一口气"公布 了包括降准、降息在内的三类十项一揽子货币政策措施，这大大地超出了市场的 预期。有些投资者猜到了今日会有政策出台，但大概率想不到政策能有十项之多， 且既有数量型的，又有价格型的，还有结构型的。有些投资者猜到了今日会有"结 构性降息"，但大概率想不到所有结构性货币政策工具利率都会下调 25bp，更 想不到更为关键的 OMO 利率（及与其联动的临时正、逆回购和 SLF 利率）也会 下调 10bp。 近期外部冲击影响加大，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固。在此 背景下，4 月 25 日召开的政治局会议要求"既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势 变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会 稳定的基本面"。显然，今日一揽子政策措施的出台是货币当局对政治局会议精 神雷厉风行的落实。 "适时降准降息"对债市有何影响？——2025 年 4 月 25 日利率债观察 一揽子 ...