2025 年 12 月 14 日 固 定 收 益 如何理解中央经济工作会议的货币政策基调 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 251212 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周央行 7 天逆回购净投放 47 亿，公开市场操作影响有限， 但月初资金需求不高，叠加政府债缴款压力减弱，资金维持宽松，隔夜匿 名下限降至 1.25%，DR001 周二后再度降至 1.30%下方并持续走低，周五 DR001 降至 1.27%，再创下 23 年 8 月以来的新低。此外，周五盘后央行 宣布将于 15 日进行 6000 亿 6M 买断式回购操作，净投放 2000 亿。 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回升，日均成交量较上周上升 0.15 万亿至 8.08 万亿；质押式回购整体规模周二后持续回升，创下 7 月以来的新高。 分机构来看，大行净融出先降后升，股份行净融出上周持续回升后维持高 位，而城商行净融出在周一回升后窄幅波动，各类银行净融出均高于上周， 其中股份行升幅最大；银行整体刚性净融出持续上升，周四再度突破至 5 万亿元以上。非银刚性融出周四前维持震荡但周五明显回升，主要是货基 融出持续上升；各类非银机构刚性融入规 ...

新华财经北京12月4日电（王菁）债市周四（12月4日）明显走弱，近期超长债调整拖拽市场整体情绪， 国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券收益率普遍上行2-3BPs；公开市场单日净回笼1756亿元，短端资金 利率多数上行。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率多数走高，10年期日债收益率上行2.5BPs至1.917%，3年期和5年期日债收益 率分别上行0.7BP和0.8BP。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间12月3日，10年期法债收益率涨0.1BP报3.490%，10年期德债收益率跌0.2BP 报2.745%，10年期意债收益率跌1.8BP报3.444%，10年期西债收益率跌0.4BP报3.217%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率跌2.2BPs报4.446%。 【一级市场】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%报112.45，创2024年11月22日以来新低；10年期主力 合约跌0.35%报107.67，5年期主力合约跌0.24%报105.595，2年期主力合约跌0.05%报102.368。 银行间主要利率债收益率午后宽幅震荡，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行3.5BPs报2.271%， 10年期国开债 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting market expectations and ongoing pressure on bank net interest margins [1] - The LPR is influenced by the central bank's policy rates and the quotes from banks, with no recent adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1] Industry Insights - The current low financing costs for enterprises and residents indicate a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing demands of the real economy [2] - Regulatory bodies are reinforcing pricing behavior guidelines for financial institutions to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition, aiming for sustainable banking operations [2] - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and improve the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect market loan rates [2]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment [1] - The LPR is influenced by the central bank's policy rates and the quotes from banks, with the absence of adjustments in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate contributing to the unchanged LPR [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The current LPR reflects a lack of willingness from banks to lower their quotes due to ongoing pressure on net interest margins, which remain at historical lows [1] - The PBOC is actively promoting a reduction in the overall financing costs for society, with all 30 provinces participating in a pilot program aimed at improving transparency in corporate loan costs [1] - Experts indicate that the low financing costs for enterprises and residents suggest a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing demands of the real economy [2] Group 2 - Regulatory bodies are reinforcing guidelines for financial institutions' pricing behaviors to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition [2] - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and improve the market-based interest rate formation mechanism [2] - Future regulatory efforts may focus on reducing financing costs through fiscal subsidies and structural tools rather than direct interest rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amidst ongoing pressures on bank net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustments in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1]. - The PBOC is actively promoting a reduction in the overall financing costs for society, with all 30 provinces participating in a pilot program aimed at improving transparency in corporate loan costs [1]. Group 2: Financing Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The current low financing costs for enterprises and residents indicate a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [2]. - Regulatory bodies are reinforcing pricing behavior guidelines for financial institutions to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition [2]. - The PBOC's upcoming monetary policy framework will focus on enhancing the quality of LPR quotations to better reflect market interest rates [2].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to implement further monetary easing within the year, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments[1] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual economic development goals[1] - The first window for additional easing measures is anticipated in November, followed by another potential window in January of the following year[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The relationship between policy rates and market rates is currently stable, with DR007 maintaining a premium of no more than 10 basis points over the 7-day OMO rate[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach a temporary peak at 1.85%, with a favorable premium range of 30-40 basis points over market rates[2] - Commercial banks' net interest margin was 1.42% as of June 2025, reflecting a slight decline, suggesting potential downward space for deposit rates[2] Group 3: Direct Financing Support - The central bank is shifting focus from total credit volume to structural optimization and quality improvement, promoting direct financing development[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring social financing and money supply growth in relation to nominal economic growth[3] - The evolving financial structure indicates a transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven economic growth, necessitating a broader evaluation of financial metrics[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected financial crises abroad[4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates a continuation of the previous monetary policy stance, emphasizing "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "strengthening the consistency of macro policy orientation" [3] - New changes include a focus on "doing a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" and enhancing the central bank's system to build a robust monetary policy framework [3] - The report discusses the relationship between financial total indicators and the evolution of monetary and base money, highlighting the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with the top performers in the last year being the comprehensive sector at 50.6%, followed by banking at 19.2% and electric equipment at 31.8% [1] - Conversely, the defense and military industry showed a decline of -5.6% over the last month, while the automotive sector experienced a -2.9% change [1] Group 3: Company Focus - Suotong Development - Suotong Development is identified as the world's largest commercial prebaked anode supplier, with significant cost advantages, achieving a cost reduction of 816 RMB/ton compared to peers in the first half of 2025 [6] - The company is focusing on lithium resources and has successfully industrialized lithium extraction technology from aluminum industrial waste, positioning itself for growth in the lithium battery sector [6] - The report notes that the domestic prebaked anode production growth is slowing due to capacity constraints in electrolytic aluminum, prompting the company to accelerate its overseas expansion [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes using interest rates as an anchor and downplaying aggregate requirements, indicating that interest rate regulation will play an increasingly important role in monetary policy [1][9]. - The credit structure will be further optimized, focusing on four aspects to release consumption potential, including "five major articles" and key economic areas, science and innovation and carbon - reduction fields, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the silver - haired economy and personal credit repair [3][12]. - Broad - spectrum interest rates are still in a downward cycle, but the decline may converge. The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to repair to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [4][5][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate and Aggregate Policy - The central bank continues to downplay aggregate requirements in the Q3 2025 monetary policy report. As China's economic transformation progresses, a slowdown in financial aggregate growth is reasonable and in line with regulatory acceptance. The traditional monetary system may not fully reflect the real situation, so the monetary policy regulation framework should be transformed to focus more on price - based regulation [1][9]. - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship. Although there were deviations in various interest rate ratios last year, they have improved significantly this year. Regulatory measures such as rectifying manual interest supplements, standardizing deposit pricing, and constraining loan interest rates have played important roles. Bank deposit costs decreased by 25.5BP in the first half of this year, and the term spread has returned to normal [2][10]. 2. Credit Structure Optimization - Credit structure optimization will focus on four aspects: developing science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to support key national strategies and weak economic links; optimizing and using monetary policy tools for science and innovation and carbon - reduction, and promoting financial institutions' participation in the carbon market; guiding the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro loans and private economy loans to support county - level economic development; and building a multi - level pension finance system, supporting the silver - haired economy, and implementing policies to support personal credit repair to release consumption potential [3][12]. 3. Interest Rate Trend - In Q3, the weighted average RMB loan interest rate decreased by 5bp to 3.24%, with general loan rates down 2bp to 3.67%, corporate loan rates down 8bp to 3.14%, personal housing loan rates unchanged at 3.06%, and bill rates down 13bp to 1.14%. The central bank aims to drive down the comprehensive social financing cost and keep social financing conditions relatively loose. Broad - spectrum interest rates are expected to continue to decline, but the decline may converge [4][14]. 4. Bond Market Outlook - The monetary policy implementation report emphasizes using interest rates as an anchor and downplaying aggregate requirements. Bond interest rates should move in tandem with broad - spectrum interest rates. With the decline in aggregate demand, the asset supply rhythm may slow down, increasing the pressure of asset shortage. The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover, and interest rates are expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of Q4. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to repair to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][16]. 5. Analysis of the Real Economy - In the first three quarters of this year, China's economy continued its steady - progress development trend, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year. Positive factors include the continuous improvement of the national economic cycle, the accelerated development of new drivers, good production and supply momentum, expanding total demand, and more active macro - policies. However, the external environment is more complex and severe, and there are still risks such as insufficient domestic effective demand [18][19][20]. 6. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Measures - **Monetary Policy Direction**: Implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment. Strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to economic and financial situations [28]. - **Credit Policy Orientation**: Give full play to the guiding role of credit policies, support key areas such as science and innovation, green development, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the silver - haired economy, and promote consumption and the stable development of the real estate market [29][30]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: Promote interest rate and exchange rate marketization reforms, balance internal and external equilibrium, guide the decline of social comprehensive financing costs, and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [31][32]. - **Financial Reform and Opening - up**: Accelerate the construction of the bond market's "science and technology board", support private enterprise bond financing, and promote the high - quality development of the panda bond market. Promote the internationalization of the RMB and improve the level of capital account opening [33]. - **Financial Risk Prevention**: Build a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and a financial risk prevention and disposal mechanism, strengthen the supervision of system - important financial institutions, and promote the reform and risk resolution of small and medium - sized financial institutions [34].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices [1] Monetary Policy Implementation - The report advocates for the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions while improving the monetary policy framework [1] - It aims to ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Price Stability - Promoting a reasonable rebound in prices is highlighted as a key consideration for monetary policy [1] - The report suggests enhancing the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates [1] Financing Costs - The goal is to lower the cost of bank liabilities and reduce the overall financing costs for society [1] - The report emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of both total volume and structure [1] Support for Key Areas - The report outlines a commitment to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade through targeted monetary policy tools [1] Exchange Rate Management - A managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand is proposed, with an emphasis on maintaining exchange rate flexibility [1] - The report aims to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Financial Stability - The exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions is mentioned to maintain market stability [1] - The report stresses the importance of avoiding systemic financial risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of monetary and financial policies aimed at supporting the real economy, optimizing credit structure, and maintaining financial stability. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - Maintain reasonable growth of money credit by utilizing tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities, and re-lending to ensure ample liquidity [1] - Promote a decrease in overall financing costs by improving the market-oriented interest rate adjustment framework and effectively implementing interest rate policies [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Optimization - Guide the adjustment and optimization of credit structure by utilizing 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, as well as new quotas for technological innovation and transformation re-lending [1] - Support key domestic demand areas such as consumption and technological innovation through risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds [1] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Risk Management - Maintain basic stability of the exchange rate by ensuring the market plays a decisive role in its formation and utilizing it to adjust macroeconomic and international balance of payments [1] - Strengthen risk prevention and resolution by systematically addressing financial risks in key areas and enhancing the monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems for financial risks [1]