Core Viewpoint - The essence of the stock market can be summarized as "navigating through storms to find gold," highlighting the interplay of price volatility, capital competition, value selection, and the accumulation of real value in the capital market [1][16]. Policy Winds - The 2024 Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized "activating the capital market," leading to a 48% surge in A-share trading volume the following day [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision caused a 3.2% volatility spike in Nasdaq futures within one minute, which is 20 times the usual volatility [5]. Emotional Winds - When the investor sentiment index (CISS) exceeds 75, the probability of a decline in the next three months reaches 68% [5]. - The emergence of new funds, referred to as "daylight funds," has an 82% probability of experiencing a drawdown exceeding 15% within six months [5]. Black Swan Events - The Luckin Coffee fraud incident resulted in a loss of 1.5 trillion yuan in market value for Chinese concept stocks in a single day [5]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a 22% drop in the European STOXX 50 index over ten days [5]. Liquidity Waves - In 2020, global central banks injected $23 trillion, resulting in a 65% increase in the MSCI global index over two years [8]. - In 2024, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction of $1.5 trillion coincided with over $80 billion in foreign capital outflows from emerging markets [8]. Financial Screening - A portfolio with a high return on equity (ROE) exceeding 20% achieved a cumulative return of 487% over ten years, significantly outperforming the overall A-share market's 136% [11]. - Companies with cash flow coverage ratios above 1.5 have a 60% lower probability of default compared to the industry average [11]. Industry Gold Mining - The energy density of power batteries exceeding 300 Wh/kg has led to an average three-year stock price increase of 320% for related companies [11]. - Innovative pharmaceutical companies entering clinical phase III see a reduction in market value volatility to 25% [11]. Timing the Cycle - Entering the market when the price-to-earnings ratio is below the historical 30th percentile has a 65% probability of yielding over 200% returns in five years [11]. - When the copper-to-gold ratio falls below 0.2, there is an over 80% probability that commodities will outperform stock indices in the following 12 months [11]. Compounding Alchemy - Gree Electric's stock has increased over 380 times since its listing 26 years ago, with an annualized return of 23.7% [14]. - Regular monthly investments in the CSI 300 index over 20 years have a 97% probability of achieving positive returns, averaging 8.4% annually [14]. Institutional Gold Content - The proportion of public funds holding A-share circulating market value has risen from 7% to 12%, indicating an ongoing enhancement of pricing power [14].

四月市场就这么在跌宕起伏中行将结束，过去的一个月市场极不平静。在特朗普关税大棒的挥舞下，市场一会儿上蹿下跳，一会儿死气沉沉，搞得人心惶 惶。这时候，市场参与者就会反复听到一个叫"VIX"的东西，什么"恐慌指数"，什么"市场情绪风向标"……听着挺唬人，对吧？ 关于VIX,官方说法是啥？ 一句话：芝加哥期权交易所搞出来的，衡量标普500未来30天波动预期。说白了，就是一群玩期权的大佬们，用真金白银在赌未来一个月美股会不会"地 震"。要是大家觉得要出事儿，抢着买保险（期权），VIX就"噌"一下上去了；要是觉得太平无事，歌舞升平，VIX就趴着不动。 听起来是不是挺有道理？教科书上都这么写。但！是！ 如果你就信了这些，那你就太天真了！图样图森破！这玩意儿，要是真这么简单，那满大街不都是 股神了？ 那么VIX背后，到底藏着什么猫腻，跟咱们搞外汇黄金的有啥毛线关系呢？ 你想想，谁最关心这"恐慌"？是华尔街那帮玩钱的精英，还是坐在华盛顿指挥全球的"老美"？没错，都是他们！ 这VIX指数，表面看是标普500的波动预期，但你得往深了想！ 标普500是啥？美国经济的脸面！是全球资本的风向标！这脸面要是看起来要"花"了，要"挨 揍" ...