此次抛售的直接催化剂，是多位美联储官员发表的谨慎言论，暗示降息需谨慎。据芝商所(CME)数据， 利率期货市场显示，降息概率已从一周前的超过70%骤降至50%左右。这一转变加剧了本月以来已在进 行的市场轮动。投资者正从今年表现最热门的股票中获利了结，转而投向估值更低、更具防御性的板 块，这一"避险模式"在周四的交易中表现得淋漓尽致。 格隆汇11月14日｜美国政府停摆结束带来的短暂乐观情绪迅速消散，市场焦点转向大量推迟的经济数 据、美联储降息前景的不确定性以及对高估值科技股的担忧，从而引发了昨晚对高估值科技股和风险资 产的广泛抛售。 周四，美股三大股指在当日的交易中集体下挫，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数收盘暴跌2.29%。科 技巨头普遍走低，特斯拉收跌6.64%，英伟达下跌3.58%。美股三大指数收市都录得逾一个月以来最差 单日表现。风险情绪恶化也蔓延至加密货币市场，比特币跌破10万美元大关，以太坊一度跌超10%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 9 | 涨幅％↑ | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IXIC | 纳斯达克 | 1 | -2.29 | ...

周五，以为调整差不多了，准备梭哈→Duang！！！收一根扎扎实实的大阴线。 我个老天爷，这周5个交易日，到底有谁能猜得中节奏？简直魔鬼步伐，步步惊心。。。 周一，以为崩盘，开盘割肉→低开高走，收一根大阳线； 周二，以为转强，开盘梭哈→冲高回落跳水，收一根中阴线； 周三，以为会下跌，再次割肉→低开高走，收一根中阳线； 周四，以为大盘趁热打铁上涨，加仓→高开低走，收一根带有上影线的小阳线（上证指数涨0.1%。。。）； | 3839.76 昨收 3916.23 成交额 8731.82亿 -76.47 -1.95% | | --- | | 上涨 | | 最高价 3921.06 市盈率 16.5 近20日 -0.92% | | 最低价 3835.36 市净率 | 兄弟们，除了嘎嘎嘎，有什么体面一点的加仓方式，在评论区知会一声啊。 1 以为、以为、以为，都是我一个人的一厢情愿！ A股连续两日跌破2万亿成交额 债涨、黄金涨、股市下跌，市场又进入避险模式了。 周五三大指数全线下挫，上证指数跌1.95%，深证成指跌3.04%，创业板指跌3.36%，后两者均跌破30日线支撑，成交量下降明显，周一周二还有2.4万亿左 右，周四、周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with all asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and oil, declining simultaneously, indicating a shift towards risk aversion among investors [1][2][11]. Market Performance - European and American stock futures have turned negative, with the Nasdaq futures down by 1% and major Asian indices also experiencing declines, such as the MSCI Asia-Pacific index down by 1% and the Nikkei 225 down by 3% [2]. - Major technology stocks in the U.S. are seeing pre-market declines, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle each dropping over 2%, while popular Chinese stocks like Bilibili are down by 5% [3]. - Precious metals are also retreating, with spot gold falling below $4100 per ounce and spot silver dropping below $51 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 2.8% [5]. - Copper prices in New York have seen a significant drop, nearing 4% decline, currently priced at $4.968 per pound [8]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is facing widespread declines, with Bitcoin down over 2% and Ethereum experiencing a drop of more than 6% [11]. Oil Market - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have decreased by over 1%, with Brent crude at $62.39 and WTI at $58.19 [13]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may represent another "TACO" trading opportunity, where sharp declines could present buying opportunities [13]. - The market sentiment appears to be cautious, with some analysts indicating that the current situation is not as panic-driven as in previous downturns, but rather reflects a need for longer-term adjustment and digestion of market conditions [16][17].

日本即将迎来两大关键风险事件——7月9日对等关税大限到期、7月20日参议院选举。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利发布最新研报指出，短期内，这两大事件是影响日元和日债收益率波动的催化剂。 据央视新闻，当地时间6日，日本首相称不会在日美贸易谈判中轻易妥协。大摩指出，若美日贸易谈判破裂，对等关税提高，这 会加剧对全球经济增长的担忧，引发避险模式，进而推高日元。因此，摩根士丹利建议维持做空美元/日元，目标价135，止损位 151。 随后市场将目光汇聚在7月20日日本参议院选举。若执政党失利，市场会预期更激进的财政刺激，这会推高日本超长期国债收益 率。 7月9日逼近，贸易谈判破裂将推高日元 摩根士丹利强调，短期内风险事件是7月9日"对等关税"暂缓期的最后期限。 目前美国和日本的谈判陷入僵局，主要卡在汽车关税问题上。据央视新闻，特朗普还威胁称，如果谈不成，日本的对等关税总税 率可能从24%提高到30%-35%。 不过，摩根士丹利指出，许多市场参与者对关税问题持相对乐观态度，认为7月9日的期限可能会延长，最终谈妥的关税税率不会 高于目前水平。 例如，6月中旬QUICK外汇月度调查显示，近一半受访者认为7月9日前会宣布一项政策 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around whether the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) can effectively destroy Iran's fortified nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site, which is heavily defended and buried deep within a mountain [1][2][3] - President Trump has expressed hesitation about military action against Iran, seeking assurance from military advisors regarding the effectiveness of the MOP in achieving the goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear program [1][3] - The U.S. possesses the necessary capabilities, including the MOP and B-2 bombers, to carry out such an attack, unlike Israel, which lacks these resources [2][3] Group 2 - As tensions escalate, the global market is bracing for potential volatility, particularly in the oil sector, with analysts predicting that military action could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, potentially reaching $120 per barrel [6] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's decision-making process is causing fluctuations in the market, with investors reacting to the possibility of military engagement and its implications for oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff attempting to communicate with Iranian officials, although the response has been inconsistent, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The VIX index, often referred to as the "fear index," reflects the market's expectations of future volatility in the S&P 500 and serves as a barometer for investor sentiment and anxiety in the financial markets [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding VIX - The VIX is created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange and measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, indicating market participants' fears and expectations [1]. - A rising VIX suggests increased market anxiety, often triggered by actions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, or disappointing economic data [1][6]. - The VIX is not a neutral indicator; it reflects the genuine concerns of wealthy investors and policymakers regarding asset depreciation and economic instability [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions to VIX - When the VIX spikes, the market typically shifts to a "risk-off" mode, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen [4][5]. - A high VIX often correlates with a strengthening dollar, as investors rush to convert their assets into USD for safety, although this relationship can vary depending on market conditions [5][6]. - Conversely, a low VIX may indicate complacency in the market, potentially signaling a buildup of hidden risks, making gold a crucial asset for protection during such times [6][7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The signals from the VIX should inform trading strategies in forex and gold markets, guiding decisions on whether to increase exposure to safe-haven assets or take profits [7]. - Understanding the underlying drivers of VIX movements—whether macroeconomic events or technical adjustments—can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to view the VIX as a complex signal rather than a simple number, integrating it with other indicators for a comprehensive market analysis [6][7].