Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut highlights the complexities of market behavior, where textbook theories do not always apply [3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, which typically supports gold prices [3]. - Following the rate cut, international gold prices fell from over $3700 per ounce to around $3650 per ounce, while domestic gold futures also saw a significant drop [3]. - This phenomenon of "good news turning bad" is reminiscent of the "slow bull fast adjustment" pattern observed in the A-share market [3][4]. Group 2: Behavioral Insights - The market often exhibits counterintuitive behavior, as seen in past instances where gold prices rose after initial interest rate hikes [3][12]. - Retail investors frequently misinterpret market signals, leading to premature selling during corrections and chasing prices during rallies [4][8]. - The concept of "herding behavior" among retail investors can create opportunities for larger institutional players to offload positions [5]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The long-term bullish outlook for gold is supported by significant data, including record central bank purchases of gold and a shift towards de-dollarization [12][13]. - Industrial demand for silver is also on the rise, particularly due to its applications in solar energy [12]. - The importance of quantitative analysis in understanding market dynamics is emphasized, as it helps investors navigate emotional traps and market noise [12][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrast between the traditional "September curse" in the U.S. stock market and the ongoing "slow bull" market in A-shares since April 2025, characterized by a 700-point increase over 90 days [1] - The "slow bull" market does not guarantee easy profits, as investors often hesitate to enter during upward trends and may exit during sharp corrections, exemplified by the market reaction to the June 18 conflict [2] - The essence of the "slow bull fast adjustment" market is attributed to institutional funds engaging in "washing" and "topping" strategies, leading to significant volatility that can mislead ordinary investors [3] Group 2 - A quantitative perspective reveals that the seemingly alarming adjustments in stock prices actually conceal clear patterns of institutional behavior, which can be analyzed through data [5] - The "institutional washing" phenomenon is identified when previously short-selling institutions re-enter the market, often accompanied by "institutional inventory" data, indicating a deliberate effort to create panic and force retail investors to sell [8] - The insights from Morgan Stanley regarding the "September curse" reflect a deeper understanding of institutional movements, suggesting that recognizing these behaviors is crucial for effective investment strategies [9]