Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of iron ore is expected to be resilient in the short term due to the cost increase driven by geopolitical conflicts. The price is likely to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with the lower - bound range expected to move up to $95 - 100 per ton. The sustainability of the price increase depends on energy prices and global demand changes [1][2][17]. 3. Section Summaries Supply - The Middle East is not a core iron ore producing region, and the impact on global iron ore supply is mainly reflected in marginal pricing disturbances. In 2024, Iran exported 22.42 million tons of iron ore, and in 2025, China imported a total of 22.38 million tons of iron ore from Iran and Oman. The proportion of Iran's iron ore exports in global seaborne trade and China's imports is relatively low. So, the halt of Iran's iron ore exports due to the Middle East situation has a limited impact on global iron ore supply [5]. - China mainly imports iron ore concentrates and pellets from Iran and Oman. After the conflict, the premium of these varieties increased but has recently stabilized. The main trade flows of iron ore from Australia and Brazil are not affected by the conflict - affected routes, so the actual impact on the main trade flows is limited [5]. Cost - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to an increase in crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices, which has directly raised shipping costs and mining costs. After the conflict, the diesel price in Australia rose from 1.69 AUD/L to 2.54 AUD/L. The production cost of Australian iron ore producers has increased, and according to Goldman Sachs' calculation, the unit cost of major Australian iron ore enterprises in the Pilbara region will increase by $2.5 per ton [8]. - The freight rates of major iron ore shipping routes have increased. As of March 27, the freight rate of Capesize vessels from Brazil to China increased from $23.4 per ton to $30.69 per ton, a rise of 31.15%, reaching a one - year high. The freight rate from Australia to China also reached a one - year high [9]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at Chinese ports has climbed to over 170 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In contrast, the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory is at a relatively low level, increasing the pressure on port inventory accumulation [14]. - The BHP trade negotiation issue has restricted the circulation of some mainstream iron ore varieties, creating a situation of overall inventory surplus but structural tightness. This has led to an emotional impact and pushed up the premium of these varieties. If the negotiation issue is resolved, the iron ore price may face downward pressure [14].

Report's Overall Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: **"★★★"** for Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon, which indicates a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a state of oscillation, with the upside space restricted. The iron ore and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The coking coal market will continue to destock in the short term. For silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [2][3][4][6][7][8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The rebar's surface demand is stabilizing in the short term, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. The hot-rolled coil's demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. The upside space of the steel futures is restricted, and it mainly oscillates. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment is decreasing month-on-month, lower than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased this period and is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The terminal demand in the off - season meets expectations, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. The iron ore's fundamentals change little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Coke - The coke's price is down during the day. There is an expectation of price increase from coking plants, but production profits are meager. The overall inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The price rebound is likely to be a short - term trend due to inventory pressure [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal's price is down during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and production is decreasing. The total inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continues to decline, with short - term destocking continuing [6]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese's price is down. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production is rising. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon's price is down. The molten iron production remains above 242, and the export demand is about 30,000 tons. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is mainly from the warehouse receipt inventory. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [8].