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黑色金属日报-20250630
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 13:36
Report's Overall Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: **"★★★"** for Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon, which indicates a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a state of oscillation, with the upside space restricted. The iron ore and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The coking coal market will continue to destock in the short term. For silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [2][3][4][6][7][8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The rebar's surface demand is stabilizing in the short term, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. The hot-rolled coil's demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. The upside space of the steel futures is restricted, and it mainly oscillates. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment is decreasing month-on-month, lower than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased this period and is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The terminal demand in the off - season meets expectations, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. The iron ore's fundamentals change little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Coke - The coke's price is down during the day. There is an expectation of price increase from coking plants, but production profits are meager. The overall inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The price rebound is likely to be a short - term trend due to inventory pressure [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal's price is down during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and production is decreasing. The total inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continues to decline, with short - term destocking continuing [6]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese's price is down. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production is rising. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon's price is down. The molten iron production remains above 242, and the export demand is about 30,000 tons. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is mainly from the warehouse receipt inventory. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds [8].