Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Not clearly defined [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not clearly defined [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, with an unclear specific meaning in the context provided [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with the real - estate sector showing a decline in sales and investment, and the growth of infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down. However, steel exports remain at a relatively high level. The short - term trading floor of steel is suppressed by weak demand, but the decline may slow down after continuous adjustments [2] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions. The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled due to weak real - world demand, and the trading floor is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The short - term volatility of coke and coking coal prices is large, and the downward space is relatively small. Their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal. The price bottom is gradually rising [7] - The price of silicon iron is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The trading floor continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production slightly declined, and inventory accumulation accelerated significantly. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil improved, production slightly increased, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The pig iron output remained high, and the negative feedback expectation increased. Considering the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] Iron Ore - The trading floor fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased seasonally, stronger than the same period last year, the domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel decreased, pig iron output slightly increased, and steel mills had high profit ratios and lacked the motivation to actively reduce production. In the short term, iron ore demand was still supported by high pig iron output, but there was an expectation of pig iron production reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. Due to the approaching major event, there was an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China. After the seventh round of price increase, the coking profit improved, and the daily coking output slightly increased. The overall coke inventory continued to decline, and traders had a good purchasing intention [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. The output of coking coal mines decreased, the spot trading market remained at a good level, and the transaction price mainly increased. The terminal inventory remained flat, and the total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month. There was a high probability of continuous inventory reduction in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - The price declined within the day. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The pig iron output remained at a high level, the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, and the inventory did not accumulate. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Silicon Iron - The price declined within the day. The pig iron output slightly decreased but remained above 240. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand decreased marginally. The supply of silicon iron continued to increase significantly, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。螺纹表需短期趋稳，产量继续回升，库存去化放缓。热卷需求回落，产量维持高位，库存稍有累积。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，负反馈预期有所缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性, 地产销售低位徘徊, 投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: No rating provided [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is under pressure [2] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal prices may have upward drivers, but are affected by factors such as oil prices [4][6] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have limited improvement, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [7] - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is acceptable, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market is weakly volatile. The demand for thread in the off - season is under pressure, the production has increased, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, the production remains high, and the inventory has decreased [2] - The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. However, the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly [2] - The downstream demand is weak, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the market is cautious. Pay attention to terminal demand and policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level, and there is an expectation of a year - end rush. The port inventory in China has begun to stabilize and increase, and the supply pressure has increased marginally [3] - In the off - season, the terminal demand has resilience, the steel mill profitability rate has improved, the molten iron production remains high, and the steel mills have weak willingness to actively reduce production and have short - term replenishment actions [3] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price has risen significantly during the day, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the market [4] - The daily production of molten iron has increased slightly to 242.18 tons per day. The coke profit is meager, and the daily production of coking has continued to decline from the annual high [4] - The overall coke inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. The coke price is affected by oil price fluctuations, and there may be an upward driver [4] Coking Coal - The price has risen significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may affect production [6] - The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline. Due to the safety production month and environmental inspections, some mines have reduced production [6] - The spot auction market has improved slightly, the transaction price has risen slightly, and the terminal inventory has continued to decline. The coking coal price is affected by the sharp decline in oil prices and may be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - The price volatility has increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has begun to increase, and the fundamentals have limited improvement [7] - Pay attention to the August forward price of South32 to China. In the short term, the manganese ore inventory is low, and the price of Comilog oxidized ore has risen slightly [7] - The trading logic of the futures market changes rapidly, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [7] Silicon Ferroalloy - The price has fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron production has risen above 242, the export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is small [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable [8] - The supply of silicon ferroalloy has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased. Some production is in cash - flow loss, which is conducive to inventory reduction, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [8]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续震荡。 淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求仍有韧性，产量依然偏高，库存继续累 积。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从1-5月数据看，基建回暖缺乏持续性，制造业投资增 速继续放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES gives a ★★★ rating to silicon iron, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity; a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market has a weak domestic demand and is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The iron ore market has increasing supply pressure and short-term market uncertainty, and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their price rebound space is not overly optimistic under inventory pressure [4][5] - The silicon manganese market has limited improvement in fundamentals, with manganese ore prices likely to decline further [6] - The silicon iron market has acceptable overall demand and a slight decrease in inventory, with attention paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed down; hot-rolled coil's demand, production, and inventory all decreased slightly; the pig iron output is still relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation is still fermenting; the market sentiment provides some support, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume has declined, the domestic arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased; the terminal demand is weak in the off-season, the steel mill profitability rate has decreased, and the pig iron output has changed little; the market has certain policy expectations, and the external geopolitical risk has increased [3] Coke - The pig iron output has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts; the coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined; the overall inventory has decreased slightly, and the traders' purchasing willingness is still low; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal mine output has declined slightly, and the spot auction market is still weak; the terminal inventory has decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [5] Silicon Manganese - Driven by rebar, the price has increased; a large steel mill in the north has a lower tender inquiry price; the inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly output has started to increase; the manganese ore price is under pressure, and the manganese mine's price support intention has increased [6] Silicon Iron - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price has increased; the pig iron output has decreased slightly; the export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high; the supply has decreased, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall demand in the steel industry is weak, with poor improvement in infrastructure and lack of sustainability in real - estate sales recovery. The short - term trend is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - Iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon are all affected by geopolitical tensions, with short - term price fluctuations. The supply of iron ore is under increasing pressure, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists. The price rebound space of coke and coking coal is limited due to inventory pressure. Silicomanganese is recommended to short on rallies, and the demand for ferrosilicon is generally okay [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread: The apparent demand continues to decline, production drops synchronously, and the de - stocking pace slows down [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Both demand and production decline slightly, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: The demand is weak, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is fermented repeatedly, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are relatively strong, domestic arrivals increase, and port inventories stop falling and start to increase [3] - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, iron - water production changes little, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [3] - Overall: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [4] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Mine production decreases slightly, and total inventory increases slightly [6] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [6] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Supply: Production starts to recover, and manganese ore inventory accumulates [7] - Demand: Iron - water production declines slightly [7] - Overall: The price is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [7] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply continues to decline [8] - Demand: Export demand is stable, and secondary demand remains high [8] - Overall: The demand is generally okay, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of de - stocking [8]

| | | | | 軍將前段 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。 淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存开始累积。 铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，地产销售复苏缺乏持 续性，新开工、施工继续大幅下滑，5月份汽车产销量维持较高增速，制造 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 鐵 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。 本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存开始累 积。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，制造业景气度放 缓，地产销售复苏缺乏持续性，新开工、施工继续大幅下滑，美国继续提高关税冲击钢材出口 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | 女女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上 升,库存开始累积。铁水产量逐步回落,整体仍处于相对高位,负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看,基建 改善幅度有限,制造业景气度放缓,地产销售复苏缺乏持续性,新开工、施工继续大幅下滑,美国继续提高关 税冲击钢材出 ...