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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250827
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Owing to concerns about sanctions on Russia and increased demand from India, oil prices are rebounding. The domestic PX inventory is at a historical low, offering strong support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unforeseen factors. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to when positive feedback will occur. PTA has sufficient spot supply, weak downstream polyester sales, and limited upward momentum. The current PTA processing fee is in a low - range, and price increases require market sentiment and new device production expectations. Polyester bottle - chip supply is abundant, and downstream purchasing is weak. The pricing logic of PX, PTA, and PR is cost - driven, and all are expected to fluctuate [2] Summary by Directory Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $63.25 per barrel, down 2.39%; Brent crude oil was $67.22 per barrel, down 2.30%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $600 per ton, up 1.27%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $694 per ton, up 0.51%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $864 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - **PTA**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,870 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,882 yuan per ton, up 0.16%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,874 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,865 yuan per ton, up 0.10%; the foreign price index was $640 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,994 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 0.97%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,832 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX CFR Taiwan, China was $865 per ton, up 0.58%; the FOB South Korea price was $840 per ton, up 0.60% [1] - **PR**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE PR main contract closing price was 6,034 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the settlement price was 6,058 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in East China was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; in South China, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream**: On August 26, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,750 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; the index of polyester POY was 7,125 yuan per ton, unchanged. The index of polyester FDY68D was 7,300 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, up 0.70%. The index of polyester staple fiber was 6,585 yuan per ton, up 0.08%. The index of polyester chip was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged. The index of bottle - grade chip was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [2] Spread Information - On August 26, 2025, the PXN spread was $264 per ton, down 0.69%; the PX - MX spread was $170 per ton, up 1.29%. The TA near - far month spread was - 38 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the TA basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan. The PX basis was - 162 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24 yuan. The PR basis in East China was - 84 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; in South China, it was - 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan [1] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - On August 26, 2025, the operating rate of the PX polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged. The PTA factory load rate was 72.16%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester factory load rate was 86.11%, down 0.23 percentage points; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 59.42%, unchanged. The polyester filament sales rate was 50.15%, up 6.44 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 41.02%, down 6.31 percentage points; the polyester chip sales rate was 54.42%, up 2.21 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] Trading Strategy - On August 26, 2025, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,870 yuan per ton, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 818,200 lots. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,994 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, with a trading volume of 442,100 lots. The PR2511 contract closed at 6,034 yuan per ton, up 0.26%, with a trading volume of 76,200 lots. International oil prices ended a four - day increase and closed lower. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate [2]