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黑色商品日报-20260324
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in an oscillating and strengthening manner [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market is expected to continue its high - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the coexistence of long and short factors [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to operate strongly in the short term as market demand gradually improves [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to operate strongly in the short term with improved steel sales and increased iron - making output [1]. - Manganese Silicon: It is expected that the manganese silicon will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term, with the cost side being the main support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term due to cost - expectation disturbances and strong market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,700 lots in positions. The national building materials inventory increased by 0.04% to 6.4461 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8% to 3.2225 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 819 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43%. Australian shipments continued to increase, and Brazilian shipments decreased slightly [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1289.5 yuan/ton, up 118.5 yuan/ton or 10.12%, with an increase of 52,588 lots in positions. Some coking plants increased their purchases of cost - effective coal types [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1847 yuan/ton, up 106.5 yuan/ton or 6.12%, with an increase of 5415 lots in positions. Mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for coke [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6556 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions was about 6100 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6120 yuan/ton, up 3.07%. The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 7.19% week - on - week [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 5 - 10 month spread of rebar was - 28.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 10 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 6.0 (unchanged) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 05 contract was 96.0, down 11.0; the basis of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was - 30.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai rebar price was 3250.0, up 20.0; the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3300.0, up 20.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was - 163.9, down 28.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 176.0, up 2.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for various commodities from 2021 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [16][17] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for various commodities, like the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar [25]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][38] - **Rebar Profit**: The report presents profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [42][43][45]