Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Views Coke - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the short term, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1790 - 1950. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, and coke enterprise inventories [6]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coke is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coke prices will follow the rise of coking coal prices. Some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increases last Friday, and the implementation needs to be monitored. The prices of coking by - products have risen, improving the profits of coke enterprises and increasing coke production. Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, increasing hot metal production. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, and the sustainability of restocking needs to be monitored. Both supply and demand of coke have increased, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price [7]. Coking Coal - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The near - month contracts face delivery pressure, and the 05 contract is gradually being rolled over to the 09 contract. Risk control is necessary. The operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1250 - 1330 - 1400. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, Mongolian coal port inventories, and coal mine inventories [9]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coking coal is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coking coal prices will follow the rise. Domestic coal mine supply has increased month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply of coking coal. In the short term, coke production has increased. In the medium to long term, hot metal production is expected to recover, increasing coke demand, which will support coking coal demand to some extent. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, which may support spot and futures prices. Currently, Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and port inventories are also high, which may bring certain delivery pressure and have a negative impact on near - month contracts [10]. Summary by Directory Coke Price and Production - As of March 20, the ex - warehouse price of Grade - 1 coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. Coke prices remained stable, while coking coal prices in the mainstream market showed a strong trend [13]. - Affected by the rising prices of chemical products, the profits of coke enterprises have increased, and the coke production of both coke enterprises and steel mills has slightly rebounded. As of March 20, the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants was 64.24 tons (+0.34), the daily average coke production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 47.31 tons (+0.31), and the total coke production of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.55 tons (+0.65) [19]. Coke Demand and Inventory - Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, and hot metal production has increased significantly. As of March 20, the daily average hot metal production was 228.15 tons (+6.95); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 839.82 tons (+18.85); the profitability rate of steel mills was 42.42% (+1.29); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.53% (+2.61); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.78% (+1.44) [27]. - Rising energy prices have stimulated downstream restocking. As of March 20, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 94.23 tons (-6.2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 688.18 tons (+0.63); the total inventory of four major ports was 199.13 tons (+2.75); and the total coke inventory was 981.54 tons (-2.82). The inventory available days of 247 steel mills was 12.74 days (-0.43) [31][34]. Coke Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1616 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was - 125, a week - on - week decrease of 3; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 75, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated last week. Therefore, the basis and spread weakened slightly. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly because the market is more pessimistic about the spot supply - demand pattern this year than in previous years, and the spot price is under significant pressure [38]. Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - The capacity utilization rate of coal mines has slightly rebounded. With the rise of coking coal spot prices and international energy prices, domestic coal mine supply is expected to further increase. As of March 20, the daily average production of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 196.86 tons (+3.25), and the operating rate was 88.59% (+1.43); the daily average production of 314 sample coal washing plants was 24.31 tons (+1.23), and the operating rate was 33.01% (+2.01) [44]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. Rising international energy prices have led to an expectation of rising coal prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has rebounded. Last week, coke enterprises restocked significantly, and coal mine inventories decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total port inventory was 264.95 tons (-2.6); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.93 tons (-3.7); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1005.03 tons (+35.6); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 254.09 tons (-23.59); and the total coking coal inventory was 2298 tons (+5.71). The available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants was 12.55 days (+0.41); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises was 12.3 days (-0.14) [54]. Coking Coal Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1213 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was 42, a week - on - week increase of 53; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 116, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5. The spot price showed a strong trend, and the futures price fluctuated last week. The far - month contract increased more than the near - month contract. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The future driving directions of the basis and spread mainly depend on energy prices and supply - side conditions [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in an oscillating and strengthening manner [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market is expected to continue its high - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the coexistence of long and short factors [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to operate strongly in the short term as market demand gradually improves [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to operate strongly in the short term with improved steel sales and increased iron - making output [1]. - Manganese Silicon: It is expected that the manganese silicon will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term, with the cost side being the main support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term due to cost - expectation disturbances and strong market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,700 lots in positions. The national building materials inventory increased by 0.04% to 6.4461 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8% to 3.2225 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 819 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43%. Australian shipments continued to increase, and Brazilian shipments decreased slightly [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1289.5 yuan/ton, up 118.5 yuan/ton or 10.12%, with an increase of 52,588 lots in positions. Some coking plants increased their purchases of cost - effective coal types [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1847 yuan/ton, up 106.5 yuan/ton or 6.12%, with an increase of 5415 lots in positions. Mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for coke [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6556 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions was about 6100 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6120 yuan/ton, up 3.07%. The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 7.19% week - on - week [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 5 - 10 month spread of rebar was - 28.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 10 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 6.0 (unchanged) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 05 contract was 96.0, down 11.0; the basis of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was - 30.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai rebar price was 3250.0, up 20.0; the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3300.0, up 20.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was - 163.9, down 28.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 176.0, up 2.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for various commodities from 2021 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [16][17] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for various commodities, like the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar [25]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][38] - **Rebar Profit**: The report presents profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [42][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy substitution logic of coal has become the focus of recent market trading. Under the high crude oil prices due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, coking coal and coke prices are strong. The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited, but the rising energy valuation continues to support alloy prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the peak - season expectations are still cautious, so the upward driving force for steel prices is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron - ore supply - side disturbances [1] - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world situation remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, prices will be strongly supported; if they ease, prices may face downward pressure [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to oscillate. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals recovered. Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuates. Steel mill profitability increased month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to recover further. Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel - mill imported - ore inventories increased [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, scrap - steel arrivals are generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap - steel supply is generally stable, short - process steel - mill demand has recovered rapidly, but long - process steel - mill demand has recovered slowly. Steel - mill inventories are still at a low level [11] Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both coke supply and demand are increasing, and the iron - water复产 speed may be faster. The spot cost is rising, and the expectation of a spot price increase is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. After the lifting of production restrictions, both supply and demand of coke have recovered. With the rising energy valuation due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost is rising, and the willingness to raise spot prices has emerged again [12] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will remain the focus of coking - coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to fundamentals, there will be downward pressure on the futures prices. Domestic coal - mine supply has room for a slight increase, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. After the lifting of production restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased slightly [13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese - ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, in the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction in the valuation level of the futures market above the cost due to the loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transfer. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited. The cost of manganese ore is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to pick up with the start of the peak season. However, the supply may increase, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products in the current geopolitical environment is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices. The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are suffering large - scale losses. Downstream demand has not recovered, and middle and downstream restocking has led to a reduction in upstream inventories. Energy - price increases have pushed up the expected cost of far - month contracts [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is currently stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The daily production decreased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has not changed much. The industry is still at the bottom of the cycle [16] Steel - Spot trading is performing well. After the weakening of environmental - protection production restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly led by building materials. Infrastructure investment growth at the beginning of the year is good, downstream resumption of work is progressing well, and rigid and restocking demands are slowly being released. Steel inventories have started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The steel - industry chain index on March 23, 2026, had a daily increase of 2.25%, a 5 - day increase of 2.11%, a 1 - month increase of 7.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.86% [104][106]