1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - end disturbances are frequent, and the high - level prices on the futures market are loosening. The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen following the high - level decline of crude oil due to repeated geopolitical conflicts. The futures market of iron ore has weakened as the market expects the liquidity restrictions on some iron ore spot varieties to loosen. The alloy prices have first declined and then risen. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. The futures market is under pressure due to the loosening cost support. The cost - end disturbances may recur, and it is necessary to continue to monitor the geopolitical and iron ore supply - end disturbances [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, so it is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term [3] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term. The actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on in the future [11] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster. The price of the spot cost - end continues to rise, and the expectation of the spot price increase of coke is strong. The futures market is expected to still follow the coking coal at the cost - end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [4] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [14] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of pushing up the import cost of manganese ore and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level above the cost on the futures market [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk when the valuation on the futures market is significantly higher than the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply of glass still has disturbance expectations, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is loosening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot trading volume has weakened. After the weakening of the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output has rebounded rapidly, and the electric furnace output has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. The demand for steel products has shown resilience, and the inventory has started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] - **Iron Ore**: The market expects the liquidity restrictions on some spot varieties to loosen, and the futures market has weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have recovered month - on - month. The rhythm of shipments and arrivals is still fluctuating. The demand side has some room for recovery, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some varieties support the futures and spot prices, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the upside valuation, and it is expected to oscillate [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and the spot market operates oscillatory. The supply is generally stable, the short - process demand has recovered rapidly, but the long - process demand has recovered slowly. The inventory is still at a relatively low level. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term, and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on [11] - **Coke**: The cost continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has good support, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. The futures market is expected to follow the coking coal at the cost - end [13] - **Coking Coal**: The auction price continues to rise, and the futures market oscillates at a high level. The domestic supply has room for a small increase, the import supply pressure is high, the demand has increased, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. Under the energy substitution logic, the futures market is strong, and the spot price continues to rise. There is callback pressure if the geopolitical conflict eases [14] - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory is high, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply may decline in the long term, the downstream demand has not recovered, the middle - and downstream inventories are high, and the high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to oscillate, and if the production and sales cannot improve, the price will be under pressure [15] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory in the delivery warehouse has accumulated, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, the demand is relatively stable, the overall supply - demand is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [15][18] - **Manganese Silicon**: It follows the energy to bottom out and rebound, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the geopolitical situation. The cost is expected to rise, the demand is expected to pick up, the supply may increase, the current supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [17][19] - **Silicon Iron**: The energy valuation bottoms out and rebounds, and the high - level support on the futures market is insufficient. The cost support is strong, the demand is expected to improve, the supply may increase, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [20] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index is 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index is 2541.47, down 1.12% [105] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 25, 2026, the daily decline was 0.75%, the increase in the past 5 days was 1.99%, the increase in the past month was 6.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 3.34% [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PP experiences significant cost disturbances, and its profit may tend to recover. The cost of crude oil and propane has declined substantially, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The supply and demand of existing inventory are more competitive, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss of PDH profit [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6714, with a daily decline of 1.61%. The trading volume was 749,904, and the open interest decreased by 20,289 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 154, the same as the previous day. The spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 26, up from - 33 the previous day [1] - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6560, 6560, and 6800 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price dropped with the macro and cost. The upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, the basis was weakly stable, and the trading atmosphere was average. The downstream profit has recovered month - on - month, the start - up and orders have increased, but the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The PP US dollar market price remained stable, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China was not high, and the export trading was difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices have回调 significantly, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE's internal and external and upstream profit ends is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing inventory intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: Downstream new orders follow up on a rigid - demand basis, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. The PDH profit at the cost end remains at a low level. Multiple PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations, and a PP device in Northern Jiangsu plans to restart. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss of PDH profit [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant price increase in synthetic rubber, which surged by 7% in the night trading session, influencing natural rubber and 20 rubber prices to rise over 2% [3][9] - The primary driver for the increase in synthetic rubber prices is the rise in upstream butadiene prices, which has pushed the cost center of synthetic rubber higher [3][9] - Domestic ethylene production facilities are facing profit pressures, leading to reduced operating rates in the Asian region, which in turn has caused a decline in butadiene production loads [3][9] Group 2 - International butadiene prices have risen, and domestic port inventories have significantly decreased, indicating a potential for sustained high prices in the short term [3][9] - On the demand side, the operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for semi-steel tires increased to 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points from the previous week, although it is down 4.42% year-on-year [4][10] - The operating load for full-steel tires in Shandong reached 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points from the previous week and up 5.44% year-on-year [4][10] Group 3 - As of January 16, the inventory of full-steel tire products was 46.1 days, an increase of 1.5 days week-on-week, while semi-steel tire inventory was 47.9 days, up 0.5 days week-on-week [4][10] - The automotive production and sales for 2025 are projected to reach 34.531 million and 34.4 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, marking a historical high and maintaining the global leading position for 17 consecutive years [4][10] - Tire manufacturers are actively replenishing stock at lower prices, which supports rubber prices in the short term, with a focus on monitoring butadiene price fluctuations [4][10]

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].