热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周四夜盘，合成胶冲击涨停，截至发稿前仍未开板，日内涨幅7%。受此影响，天然橡胶、20号胶均录 得上涨，日内涨幅超2%。从本轮上涨导火索来看，合成胶走强主要逻辑在于上游丁二烯价格上涨，推 动合成胶成本中枢上升。国内乙烯装置由于利润有压力，亚洲区域开工率受限，作为乙烯生产中的副产 品，丁二烯开工负荷同样下滑。而海外乙烯装置检修，叠加国际丁二烯价格上涨，国内出口窗口打开， 周内丁二烯港口库存大幅去化。料短期丁二烯价格或维持强势，合成胶价格或继续演绎强成本逻辑。 需求端来看，上周国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.39%，较上周走高8.5个百分点，较去年同期走低 4.42个百分点。本周山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为65.52%，较上周走高7.5个百分点，较去年同期走 高5.44个百分点。截至1月16日当周，国内轮胎企业全钢胎成品库存46.1天，周环比增加1.5天；半钢胎 成品库存47.9天，周环比增加0.5天。2025年全年，汽车产销量分别为3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别 增长10.4%和9.4%，产销量再创历史新高，连续17年稳居全球第一。轮胎 ...

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].