1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX, PTA, PF, and PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation, and the geopolitical situation needs attention. The PXN has significantly declined, and the floating price of PX remains weak. The Asian PX operating rate has reached a new high since late February 2019, increasing the supply expectation. The fundamentals are weak in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good [1] - The PTA spot basis is weak, and the near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate inventory due to the reduction in polyester production during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1] - The polyester operating rate is 78.2% (down 6.0% month - on - month), and the downstream is on holiday, with inventory starting to accumulate. The estimated average monthly loads for January and February are 88.5% and 80.5% respectively [2] - The PF production profit is 34 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the load is gradually declining. The sales of polyester yarn are average, and the load continues to decline [2] - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 642 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan/ton month - on - month). The pre - holiday inventory reduction is smooth, and the processing fee rebounds [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the Asian PX operating rate [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester operating rate, direct - spinning filament operating rate, polyester staple fiber operating rate, polyester bottle - chip operating rate, and related profit and inventory data [46][48][49] PF Detailed Data - Figures show the 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber operating rate, factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber operating rate, raw - recycled spread, and the operating rate and production profit of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip operating rate, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [85][87][95]

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

摘要 太阳纸业未来营收增长主要来源于新增产能投放，预计 2025-2027 年 将有 170 万吨包装纸和 47 万吨文化纸投产，销量增长确定性高。预计 2025 年至 2027 年公司的营收增速分别为 3%、13%和 9%。 公司盈利能力提升短期依赖于 2025-2027 年投产的 110 万吨自制浆， 长期则依赖老挝丰富林木资源带来的成本节约。自制浆成本较外采浆有 显著优势，包括一体化烘干和木片价格优势。 文化纸业务方面，预计价格将温和修复，受益于浆价修复和产品溢价。 销量增长主要依靠山东和南宁 47 万吨文化纸的投产。毛利增长则看上 游浆价回升及 2025 年至 2027 年 110 万吨自制浆的投产。 包装纸业务预计 2025-2027 年营收增速分别为 4%、25%和 20%，吨 毛利分别为 529、563 和 605 元/吨。销量增长主要依靠 170 万吨包装 纸的投产，价格受益于供需关系趋向合理。 木浆业务方面，化机浆与化学浆主要自用，溶解浆全部外售。预计营收 增速分别为 2%、9%和 5%，增长来源于行业内整体木浆价格修复及外 售规模增加。 Q&A 太阳纸业作为国内领先的造纸龙头企业，其未来的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

Group 1: Methanol Market Analysis - Methanol's price is significantly influenced by its production capacity and the dynamics of its upstream and downstream industries. In 2026, over 7 million tons of methanol capacity is expected to be put into operation, but most of this capacity is tied to downstream facilities, limiting market circulation [1] - The coastal supply-demand situation is crucial for methanol futures, with potential disruptions from geopolitical events like the situation in Iran and domestic maintenance affecting supply [2] Group 2: Urea Market Insights - Urea production capacity is projected to continue growing, with over 5 million tons expected to be added in 2026. However, the demand from agriculture remains stable while industrial demand faces risks of decline, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5] - Urea prices are heavily influenced by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and prices, with export restrictions likely to cap price increases [6] Group 3: Benzene and Styrene Overview - In 2026, the production capacity for benzene is expected to remain stable, with no significant increase in imports anticipated, leading to a gradual reduction in bearish pressure on the market [8] - Styrene's production capacity is expected to lag behind downstream demand, with only one new 700,000-ton facility planned for 2026, while exports are becoming a significant growth point for styrene [9][12] Group 4: PX-PTA Market Dynamics - PX and PTA are expected to see limited new capacity in 2026, with PX's production capacity increasing by only 4.6% and PTA having no new capacity. This creates a supply-demand gap as downstream polyester production continues to expand [16][17] - The price performance of PX and PTA has been strong, but their high valuations may limit further upside without support from crude oil prices [17] Group 5: Plastic Production Trends - The production capacity for LLDPE and other plastic grades is expected to decline significantly in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year, despite previous overcapacity [21][22] - The profitability of plastic production is under pressure due to overcapacity, with prices closely correlated to crude oil prices, suggesting limited downside potential for both [24] Group 6: Synthetic Rubber Market Outlook - Synthetic rubber, particularly polybutadiene rubber, is expected to be a strong performer in 2026 due to a supply-demand imbalance, with no new capacity planned and high utilization rates [30][32] - The supply of butadiene is also constrained, with no new capacity expected in the first half of 2026, leading to potential price volatility [31]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]

Core Viewpoint - Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.3 million to 203 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 37 million to 55.5 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, also indicating a return to profitability year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring gains and losses are expected to impact net profit by approximately 146 million yuan, primarily due to government subsidies and gains from raw material futures and foreign exchange hedging [1] Industry Context - The capacity expansion for polyester bottle chips is nearing completion, and the industry is experiencing a recovery in market conditions [1] - The company is focusing on efficiency, enhancing cost control, and adjusting production and sales rhythm as needed [1] - The MEG Phase I project, with a capacity of 600,000 tons, is set to commence production in the second half of the year, further strengthening the company's low-cost and high-efficiency operational advantages [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. - The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. - The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. - The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. - In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol remains relatively high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. If there is no further production reduction in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 9.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.27% increase, at 445.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase, at 2461.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase, at 3066.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.85 million barrels to 91.47 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.00 million barrels to 93.56 million barrels, a 1.08% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.85 million barrels to 185.03 million barrels, a 1.57% increase [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: No specific market quotes provided in the given text. - **Strategy Views**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei remained unchanged, in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged, and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 44 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, at 1774 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. The long - side of natural rubber RU believed that rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber forests might be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand was expected to improve. The short - side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, supply was increasing, and demand was in the seasonal off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire factories increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1900 (- 10) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1900 (- 10) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (+50) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11450 (+50) yuan [8][9][10]. - **Strategy Views**: The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 52 yuan, at 4888 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4670 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 218 (+102) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (- 11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 730 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 674 (- 14) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.4% increase; the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and the social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [12]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Quotes**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 296 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 43.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.95 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, an increase of 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.90%, an increase of 0.11%. The PS operating rate was 58.90%, a decrease of 1.50%; the EPS operating rate was 46.72%, an increase of 3.07%; the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, a decrease of 0.10% [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6766 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a weakening of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 39.54 tons, an increase of 2.47 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.93 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Views**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 115 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 46.77 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 20.47 tons, an increase of 2.75 tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease from the previous week. The LL - PP spread was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Views**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX03 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 7282 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 2 US dollars, at 899 US dollars. Converted at the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 18 yuan (+42), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (- 12). The PX operating rate in China was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. In terms of facilities, there were few changes in China, a 82 - ton facility in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 339 US dollars (- 2), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 2) [23]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 2 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 40 yuan, at 5060 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan (- 11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 52 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of facilities, 75 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang, 12 - ton bottle chips of Yipu, and 10 - ton chemical fiber of Jindayu were under maintenance, and 50 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang were restarted. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 72%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 56%. In terms of inventory, on January 9, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.005 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 50 yuan to 295 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 15 yuan to 363 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG05 contract decreased by 65 yuan, at 3815 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 48 yuan, at 3686 yuan. The basis was - 147 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 yuan (- 14). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].