Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of WTI $70.4/barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, after the emotional boost fades, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short - position allocation within the sector [2]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but is also restricted by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [4]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term, while a neutral and quick - in - quick - out strategy is suggested for the short - term [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is mainly focused on the transition from de - stocking to re - stocking. The price will be under pressure in the future [13]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the price is likely to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand [19]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has upward momentum, but the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, WTI主力原油期货 fell $0.23, or 0.34%, to $67.07; Brent主力原油期货 fell $0.14, or 0.20%, to $69.09; INE主力原油期货 rose 6.10 yuan, or 1.15%, to 538.1 yuan. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.14 million barrels to 90.97 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.81 million barrels to 101.77 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 192.74 million barrels [1]. Chemicals Methanol - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 13 yuan/ton with a basis of - 13. The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and overseas device operating rates returned to medium - high levels. The overall demand performance was weak, and the spot valuation was still high [2]. Urea - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 67 yuan/ton to 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton with a basis of + 8. The domestic operating rate declined slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports provided support [4]. Rubber - On July 22, NR and RU continued to rise strongly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. The bullish view for natural rubber RU was based on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The bearish view was due to uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and potential under - expected production cuts [8][15]. PVC - On July 22, the PVC09 contract rose 181 yuan to 5118 yuan. The overall operating rate rose, but the downstream operating rate declined. The factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak, and the price would face pressure [13]. Benzene Styrene - The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The cost - end pure benzene operating rate increased, and the supply was abundant. The port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - end three - S overall operating rate rose. The price was expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. Polyolefins - **Polyethylene**: The futures price rose. The EU's sanctions on Russia affected the market. The trade - merchant inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price rose. The Shandong refinery profit rebounded, and the supply was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [19]. Polyester - **PX**: On July 22, the PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6862 yuan. The Chinese and Asian operating rates were 81.1% and 73.6% respectively. The inventory was low, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It was recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [21][23]. - **PTA**: On July 22, the PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4780 yuan. The operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream operating rate declined. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and it was recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On July 22, the EG09 contract rose 34 yuan to 4410 yuan. The supply - end operating rate declined, and the downstream operating rate also declined. The port inventory decreased. The short - term valuation had upward momentum, but the fundamentals would turn weak [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant capacity expansion pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected standard - grade PE production in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as there was high - level maintenance in the first half, and there is an expectation of increased production from existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse this trend, so there is a lack of upward momentum. The strategy is mainly to sell short on rallies [3]. - In the short and medium term, a bearish view is taken on the single - side trading. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Third - quarter PP and PE capacity expansion pressure is large, easing in the fourth quarter. PE standard - grade production pressure in the second half is reduced, but supply may increase due to expected higher operation rates of existing facilities. Terminal demand is weak, lacking upward drivers [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish stance on single - side trading in the short and medium term; temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Capacity Expansion**: For PE, the expected new capacity for the 2509 contract is 2.05 million tons, and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. For PP, the 2505 contract has an expected new capacity of 2.11 million tons, 2.2 million tons for the 2509 contract, and 950,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The total new PE capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.43 million tons, and 5.26 million tons for PP [12][13][14]. - **Demand**: PE and PP demand is weak year - on - year. For PE, the current mainstream downstream industry operating rates range from 20% - 51%. For PP, the plastic - weaving industry is in the off - season with reduced new orders, and the BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle [22]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 1.02 million tons. Two - oil inventory remained unchanged, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories increased by 2,000 tons, 5,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating rate is 76.88%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous period. The annual production capacity affected by maintenance is 6.97 million tons, and the maintenance loss this week is 108,500 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the previous period [65]. - **Price and Spread**: The report provides detailed price data for PE raw materials, products, and various spreads, including changes in oil - based PE profit, CTO profit, and import profit [24]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market showed "reduced volume and stable prices." Supply was tightened due to some Middle - East plant failures, and the Chinese market price being low globally reduced foreign suppliers' willingness to quote. Import arrivals may continue to decline from July to August [81]. - **Demand**: PE downstream industry operating rates vary. Agricultural film operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, while pipe operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 32% [22]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PP inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 514,000 tons. Two - oil inventory increased by 5,000 tons, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories decreased by 3,000 tons, 2,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PP operating rate is 77.41%, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week but up 3.51 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP are 73.26%, 92.36%, and 76.18% respectively [133]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents comprehensive PP price data, including raw material prices, product prices, and various spreads such as non - standard spreads and basis spreads [100]. - **Import and Export**: PP import offers are scarce, with few transactions due to the large gap between offers and buyers' expectations. PP export arbitrage opportunities are limited, mainly due to weak overseas markets and new domestic capacity leading to a supply - abundant situation [145][147]. - **Demand**: PP downstream industries, such as plastic - weaving, are in the off - season with reduced new orders. The BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle, and some small and medium - sized injection - molding enterprises are operating at low rates [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].