石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-26 局部现货下跌，市场观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、2月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3335元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌27元/吨，跌幅 8.03%；持仓12489手，环比下跌4630手，成交11862手，环比下跌8388手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3700元/吨；山东，3280—3320元/吨；华南，3220—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3300元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格基本持 稳。节后国内成交氛围较淡，沥青现货市场观望情绪浓厚。目前市场主要矛盾来自于成本端，原油端短期定价则 集中在地缘层面。本周美国与伊朗双方即将举行新一轮谈判，需要重点关注。如果谈判进展不顺，美伊冲突升级， 美国对伊朗采取军事行动，造成伊朗甚至波斯湾供应中断，则将构成巨大的上行风险。反之，如果局势缓和，原 油以及下游商品将逐步回归基本面定价，沥青虽然原料切换后成本有所上移，但终端消费的疲软仍将抑制价格的 上行空间。 策略 单边：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势发展 跨期：无 跨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12th, the afternoon closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 was 3157 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, with a gain of 0.25%. The open interest was 222,525 lots, down 3,135 lots, and the trading volume was 220,926 lots, down 13,052 lots. The spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt showed mixed trends, and the overall market atmosphere was fair. The current contradictions and drivers in the asphalt market mainly come from the cost side. After pricing in the expected tightening of crude oil supply, the futures market has entered a volatile phase. Due to the escalating situation in South America and the US's intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil supply to domestic refineries is being continuously realized. The market is now focusing on the availability of alternative raw materials and their impact on costs. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, after the consumption of inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc., including discounted resources from Russia and Iran, which will make the changes in cost and product yield more complicated and require dynamic tracking. Overall, the cost center of asphalt raw materials may rise compared to before the incident [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - **Single - side Strategy**: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, but avoid excessive chasing of rising prices [2]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash Strategy**: None [2]. - **Options Strategy**: None [2]. 4. Figures and Their Units - **Spot Prices**: Figures 1 - 6 show the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), with the unit of yuan/ton [3][5][8][10]. - **Futures Prices**: Figures 7 - 10 show the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, the main contract, the near - month contract, and the near - month spread, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][20][22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Figures 11 - 12 show the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, with the unit of lots [3][26]. - **Production**: Figures 13 - 18 show the weekly asphalt production in China, the production of independent refineries, and the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][28][30]. - **Consumption**: Figures 19 - 22 show the consumption of asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][40][41]. - **Inventory**: Figures 23 - 24 show the refinery inventory and social inventory of asphalt according to Longzhong's data, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][44].