1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 135,000 tons (6.5%). Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased. It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Demand side: During the Spring Festival, most downstream industries of asphalt shut down. The road asphalt operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to 0% week - on - week. The national shipment volume decreased 14.59% to 131,700 tons week - on - week, at a low level. The asphalt market transaction was light during the Spring Festival [1]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, asphalt factory inventories increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.50% to 3,358 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,341 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,373 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4,543 to 141,450 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,300 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 58 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year. As of the week of February 6, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 24, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13 [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core View - The asphalt market continues to have weak supply and demand, mainly driven by the Middle East situation. There are still core differences between the two sides, and the market rumors that the US may strike Iran, which could drive up oil prices and lead to an increase in asphalt prices. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran. [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2604 opened at 3359 yuan/ton, closed at 3348 yuan/ton, with a high of 3408 yuan/ton, a low of 3346 yuan/ton, a daily change of 1.67%, and a trading volume of 154,400 lots. BU2606 opened at 3380 yuan/ton, closed at 3372 yuan/ton, with a high of 3414 yuan/ton, a low of 3366 yuan/ton, a daily change of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 65,800 lots. [6] - Spot Market: Today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, East China, and South China increased, while those in Sichuan and Chongqing decreased, and prices in other regions remained stable. The high - level fluctuations of crude oil prices and asphalt futures supported the spot market atmosphere. [6] Group 5: Industry News - No industry news information provided. Group 6: Data Overview - Shandong Market: The mainstream intended price of 70A grade asphalt was 3270 - 3340 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the holiday, the increase in international oil prices supported asphalt prices from the cost side. The asphalt futures opened higher and fluctuated, which was beneficial to the spot market sentiment, and the spot and contract quotes of traders increased. [9] - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Although crude oil prices declined, they were still at a six - month high, providing some support on the cost side. The asphalt futures opened and closed higher, boosting the spot price. During the Spring Festival holiday, Sinopec slightly raised prices, driving up the mainstream transaction price. [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. The supply is at a low level in the same period in recent years, the demand is limited in the short - term, the raw material situation is uncertain, and the base - spread is at a moderately low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment decreased 5.80% to 214,500 tons. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil this week, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1] - Demand side: The rigid demand in the north is basically stagnant but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined last week, and road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to capital and weather constraints [1] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] - Price and base - spread: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the base - spread has been repaired but is at a moderately low level. Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the short - term asphalt is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] 2. 期现行情 - Futures: The asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.36% to 3,339 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,336 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,382 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 13,038 to 85,907 lots [2] - Base - spread: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,250 yuan/ton, and the base - spread of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 89 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] 3. 基本面跟踪 - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (ex - electricity) both showed negative year - on - year growth [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate at a low level and expected production in February 2026 decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, with most downstream industries' start - up rates falling, and the overall market is affected by factors such as raw material supply and geopolitical situation. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced 193.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 million tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 million tons (6.5%). Shandong refineries' production and shipments decreased. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, keeping the asphalt start - up at a low level [1] - Demand side: The start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt fell last week. Road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. Northern rigid demand is basically stagnant, but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis has been repaired but is still at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the rebound of crude oil prices, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3311 yuan/ton, the highest was 3384 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 11,833 to 98,945 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 111 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [4] - Downstream start - up: As of the week of January 30, most downstream industries' start - up rates of asphalt fell, and the road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.2 percentage points compared with that from January to November [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased, and the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data 1. Futures Prices and Positions - BU2603 (main contract) price rose from 3157 to 3242, an increase of 85 or 2.69%. BU2604 rose from 3170 to 3246, an increase of 76 or 2.40%. BU2605 rose from 3093 to 3247, an increase of 154 or 4.98%. SC2603 rose from 440.8 to 446.4, an increase of 5.6 or 1.27%. Brent first - line rose from 63.65 to 64.46, an increase of 0.8 or 1.27% [2] - The main contract's position increased from 18.7 million lots to 20.3 million lots, an increase of 1.6 million lots or 8.49%. The main contract's trading volume increased from 14.9 million lots to 30.0 million lots, an increase of 15.1 million lots or 101.87%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 45,820 tons [2] 2. Basis and Calendar Spread - BU04 - 05 decreased from 77 to - 1, a decrease of 78 or 101.30%. BU04 - 03 increased from - 13 to - 4, an increase of 9 or - 130.77%. The Shandong - main contract basis decreased from 30 to - 36, a decrease of 66 or 220.00%. The East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20 to - 96, a decrease of 76 or 580.00%. The South China - main contract basis decreased from 10 to - 66, a decrease of 76 or 760.00% [2] 3. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price rose from 3070 to 3080, an increase of 10 or 0.33%. The East China and South China market prices remained unchanged at 3150 and 3180 respectively. Shandong gasoline rose from 6976 to 6983, an increase of 7 or 0.10%. Shandong diesel rose from 5662 to 5676, an increase of 14 or 0.25%. Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged at 2890. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price rose slightly by 0.01% [2] 4. Spread and Profit - The asphalt refinery profit decreased from 7.21 to - 20.72, a decrease of 27.94 or 387.22%. The refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from 26.22 to - 3.90, a decrease of 30.12 or 114.89%. The BU - SC crack spread increased from - 412.53 to - 386.15, an increase of 26.38 or 6.39%. The gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased from 720.16 to 683.58, a decrease of 36.58 or 5.08%. The diesel spot - Brent spread decreased from 247.33 to 216.94, a decrease of 30.39 or 12.29% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Overview - On January 22, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3243 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous day. The higher asphalt futures boosted the market sentiment. Traders in Shandong raised their selling prices. In the South, the main refineries had stable shipments and lower inventory levels, supporting the stable prices of the main asphalt products. Some social warehouses in South China and East China slightly raised their selling prices [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt rose 10 to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the weak terminal demand limited the price increase [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries' shipments by ship were good, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. However, the cold weather affected the demand, and the social warehouse shipments were average. The Zhenjiang warehouse price was slightly raised by 20 to about 3170 yuan/ton [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3110 - 3150 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the futures price boosted the market sentiment, but most downstream users were cautious, and the high - price resource transactions were average. The local main refineries will keep low production and low inventory, so the mainstream transaction price will remain stable in the short term [6] 2. Market Outlook - The discount of Venezuelan oil raw materials has risen in the market quotation but there has been no real transaction. The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel prices, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a weekly drop of 1.11% and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]. Market Overview - As of January 15, the spot price of asphalt was reported at 3140 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 6.67 yuan/ton, or 0.21%. Over the past week, asphalt prices have risen by 40 yuan/ton, a 1.29% increase, and over the past month, prices have increased by 193.33 yuan/ton, or 6.56% [2]. - During the week of January 7 to January 13, the total shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 317,000 tons, representing a 1.0% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate for 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 6.8%, up 0.1% week-on-week and 2.6% year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - Dayue Futures notes that recent production cuts by refineries have reduced supply pressure, but overall demand remains weak and below expectations. Inventory levels are stable, and weakening crude oil prices are diminishing cost support in the short term. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with asphalt prices projected to oscillate between 3138 and 3196 yuan/ton [3]. - Haitong Futures emphasizes that the absolute price trends of asphalt will continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the U.S. and Iran. The uncertain situation in Iran is likely to cause volatility in oil prices, which will subsequently affect asphalt prices. The short-term outlook suggests a focus on geopolitical risks, with strategies indicating a preference for buying low in the near term [3].

Market Performance - The BU 2603 main contract experienced high volatility, closing at 3168, an increase of 0.88% from the previous day, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 1.1% [2][37] - The next month contract 2606 also saw a rise of 0.60% compared to the previous day's closing [2][37] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 3100 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6% and a cumulative increase of 1.0% over the past week [2][37] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3200 CNY/ton, with a basis of +32 CNY/ton, accumulating a 7-day increase of 35 CNY/ton [2][37] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded at -159 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 47 CNY/ton [2][37] - The main BU contract closed up by 0.9%, while Brent decreased by 0.6% [2][37] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the low-end price of heavy asphalt in East China has stabilized at 3150 CNY/ton for four consecutive trading days, with the high-end price rising to 3230 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.3% [3][38] - The net short positions for the 03 contract have been decreasing since January 8, while net long positions have been fluctuating upwards, maintaining a long-short ratio of 0.52 [3][38] Geopolitical Developments - Major traders Vitol and Trafigura have received special licenses from the U.S. to supply Venezuelan oil to Chinese and Indian refiners, aiding in the sale of large amounts of floating and in-transit Venezuelan oil [4][38] - The U.S. government has applied for court orders to seize more oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, which may accelerate the dilution of floating and in-transit inventories [4][38] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract will continue to focus on geopolitical developments [5][39] - The strategy is to maintain a range-bound approach, with a focus on buying the near-month 03 contract on dips and the far-month 06 contract [6][40]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran continues to escalate, and oil prices are strong. However, the market has gradually digested the impact of Venezuela on oil prices, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded, and the market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived as scheduled. The weekly supply and demand have decreased simultaneously on a month - on - month basis. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On January 14, 2026, the price of BU2603 (the main contract) was 3168 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89% from the previous day; BU2604 was 3172 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89%; BU2605 was 3175 yuan, up 94 yuan or 3.05%; SC2602 was 445.5 yuan, down 0.1 yuan or - 0.02%; the price of Brent's first - line contract was 65.22 US dollars, up 1.1 US dollars or 1.68%. The main contract's position was 20.3 million lots, down 0.5 million lots or - 2.20%; the main contract's trading volume was 19.9 million lots, down 8.1 million lots or - 28.99%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 46450 tons, up 5800 tons or 14.27% [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU04 - 05 spread was - 3.00 yuan, down 66.00 yuan or - 104.76%; the BU04 - 03 spread was - 4.00 yuan, unchanged; the Shandong - main contract basis was 58.00 yuan, down 8.00 yuan or - 12.12%; the East China - main contract basis was - 22.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 466.67%; the South China - main contract basis was 8.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 77.78% [3]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 3100 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.65%; the East China market price was 3150 yuan, unchanged; the South China market price was 3180 yuan, unchanged; Shandong gasoline was 7087 yuan, up 41 yuan or 0.58%; Shandong diesel was 5832 yuan, up 54 yuan or 0.93%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the diluted asphalt discount was - 13.2, unchanged; the central parity rate of the exchange rate was 7.0120, up 0.0017 or 0.02% [3]. - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit was - 2.93 yuan, down 22.82 yuan or 114.73%; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 68.66 yuan, down 14.11 yuan or - 17.05%; the BU - SC cracking spread was - 445.07 yuan, up 25.51 yuan or 5.42%; the gasoline spot - Brent spread was 730.76 yuan, down 21.33 yuan or - 2.84%; the diesel spot - Brent spread was 310.14 yuan, down 9.83 yuan or - 3.07% [3]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On January 14, the average price of the domestic asphalt market was 3239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. In the Shandong market, the supply decreased slightly, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt futures rose, which boosted market sentiment. Traders slightly raised their shipping prices. In the East China market, the high - priced resources in the social inventory were not sold well, but the main refineries' road and shipping deliveries were good, and the asphalt price was stable. In the South China market, some main refineries limited their shipments, and the local price remained firm [6]. - **Market in Different Regions**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices drove up the asphalt futures price, and most traders slightly raised their shipping prices. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the mainstream transaction price was still at the lower end. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries produced asphalt stably, and the road and shipping deliveries were smooth, which reduced the refinery inventory. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3080 - 3150 yuan/ton. The supply and demand were balanced, and some resources were sold at a premium due to limited shipments from some main refineries [6][7]. - **Market Outlook**: The situation in Iran is escalating, and oil prices are strong. The impact of Venezuela on oil prices has been digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived, with simultaneous month - on - month decreases in supply and demand. The inventory is low, the spot price is firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of Shandong local refinery gasoline, and the price of Shandong local refinery diesel [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12th, the afternoon closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 was 3157 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, with a gain of 0.25%. The open interest was 222,525 lots, down 3,135 lots, and the trading volume was 220,926 lots, down 13,052 lots. The spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt showed mixed trends, and the overall market atmosphere was fair. The current contradictions and drivers in the asphalt market mainly come from the cost side. After pricing in the expected tightening of crude oil supply, the futures market has entered a volatile phase. Due to the escalating situation in South America and the US's intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil supply to domestic refineries is being continuously realized. The market is now focusing on the availability of alternative raw materials and their impact on costs. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, after the consumption of inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc., including discounted resources from Russia and Iran, which will make the changes in cost and product yield more complicated and require dynamic tracking. Overall, the cost center of asphalt raw materials may rise compared to before the incident [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - **Single - side Strategy**: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, but avoid excessive chasing of rising prices [2]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash Strategy**: None [2]. - **Options Strategy**: None [2]. 4. Figures and Their Units - **Spot Prices**: Figures 1 - 6 show the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), with the unit of yuan/ton [3][5][8][10]. - **Futures Prices**: Figures 7 - 10 show the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, the main contract, the near - month contract, and the near - month spread, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][20][22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Figures 11 - 12 show the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, with the unit of lots [3][26]. - **Production**: Figures 13 - 18 show the weekly asphalt production in China, the production of independent refineries, and the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][28][30]. - **Consumption**: Figures 19 - 22 show the consumption of asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][40][41]. - **Inventory**: Figures 23 - 24 show the refinery inventory and social inventory of asphalt according to Longzhong's data, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate. It suggests keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is expected to decline due to refinery production changes and geopolitical risks, while demand varies regionally with northern winter - storage demand and southern general demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a relatively low level [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years. In January 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%). Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production [1]. - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined last week. Road asphalt operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather. Northern road construction is ending, and subsequent rigid demand will slow, but winter - storage demand is being released. Southern demand is generally average, and low - price supplies from southern refineries are decreasing [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly last week but remains near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical factor: The US sanctions on Venezuela have caused concerns about the export of heavy crude oil, which may affect domestic asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has widened again [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3017 yuan/ton, the highest was 3053 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,149 to 118,184 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 98 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries like Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September 2025. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather [1][4]. - Social financing: From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries rose 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared to the week of December 19, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [4].