1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate dropping, expected production in November decreasing, and some refineries planning to switch to producing residue. Demand is also weakening due to factors such as cold weather and limited project increments. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries is at a low level. Considering these factors, it is expected that the futures price of asphalt will oscillate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The start - up rate of asphalt last week decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production of domestic asphalt in November is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) from the previous month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) from the same period last year. The start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years. Due to factors such as sanctions not affecting Russian oil production and potential peace frameworks, crude oil prices fell. Some refineries in Shandong plan to switch to producing residue this week, and the start - up rate of asphalt will remain low. With the arrival of cold snaps, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. The basis in Shandong is at a neutral level, and the spot price is stable, so the futures price of asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.33% to 3,058 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,976 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,062 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 8,998 to 172,183 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 28 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residue, and the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national investment in highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared to January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% in January - September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% in January - September 2025. As of the week of November 14, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point compared to January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion less due to a high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared to the week of November 7, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

2025 年 11 月 13 日 沥青：现货不振，偏弱震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,063 | 0.39% | 3,041 | -0.72% | | | BU2601 | 元/吨 | 3,063 | 0.43% | 3,036 | -0.88% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2512 | 手 | 5,643 | (4,470) | 20,326 | (34) | | | BU2601 | 手 | 183,695 | (68,513) | 198,272 | 4,444 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 7690 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月07日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.8个百分点至31.5%，较去年同期高了3.5个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青 开工环比上涨1个百分点至34%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华东地区供应减 少，出货量减少幅度较大，全国出货量环比减少6.79%至30.88万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存 货比环比继续小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。中化泉州、金诚石化等炼厂计划复产，沥青 产量将有所增加。北方多地项目赶工，市场发货积极，但资金仍有制约，后续需求将逐步转弱，南 方降雨增加，多询盘低价货源。近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息，中美两国领导人会谈基本符 合市场预期，两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，但明年一季度暂停增产， 原油价格震荡运行。炼厂远期低价资源集中释放，近期山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of fluctuating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but is still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the expected production in November has decreased. The downstream industry's start - up rate has mostly increased, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continues to decline and remains at a record low. The crude oil price fluctuates, and the forward low - price resources of refineries are released, causing the asphalt futures price to show a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The asphalt production rate last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [1]. - Most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather [1]. - The shipment volume of the main refineries in North China increased significantly last week. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% month - on - month to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price fluctuated. The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively, and the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,103 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,167 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 1,885 to 201,642 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 9 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to September, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but is still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of October 31, most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, and is restricted by funds and weather [4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. The new social financing in September was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and is still at the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of oscillating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but a significant reduction in planned production for November. The downstream industry's production rate has mostly increased, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - Last week, the main refineries in North China maintained stable production and fulfilled contracts for shipment, with a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week-on-week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week-on-week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The production of Sinochem Quanzhou and some main refineries is intermittent, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Projects in many northern regions are rushing to complete work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. In the south, there is more inquiry for low-priced goods. Recently, the market has digested the news of sanctions on Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating. The long-term resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.00% to 3,193 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,189 yuan per ton, and the highest price was 3,245 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 892 to 206,960 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3,200 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 7 yuan per ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou have resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of the stock of social financing, from January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the newly added social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.08% and a historical percentile of 24.70% over the past 3 years [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Group 4: Core Views - Due to news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and US sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen recently. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments are not affected. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand in the spot market remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage remains unsolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. Recently, crude oil has rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand. In the long - term, northern demand will end as the temperature drops, while southern demand may increase after the rain decreases. Currently, the peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Due to recent external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the resistance level. It is necessary to pay attention to OPEC's latest meeting resolution and whether the Middle East OSP quote will be lowered as expected [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela [6] - Refineries in Shandong (Shengxing and Lanqiao) started maintenance and stopped asphalt production [6] - The tariff confrontation between China and the US is expected to ease [6] - The US cancelled the "Trump - Putin meeting" and imposed more sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting two major Russian oil giants. Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities, and the US purchased strategic oil reserves [7] Group 6: Bearish Factors - OPEC continued to increase production [7] Group 7: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day and 120 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/day and 90 yuan/week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Basis - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/day and 71 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot 12 - contract basis was 216 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 49 yuan/week; the North China spot 12 - contract basis was - 4 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/day and 41 yuan/week; the South China spot 12 - contract basis was 196 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 99 yuan/week [8] Cracking Spread - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 104.2694 yuan/barrel, down 6.9316 yuan/day and 13.607 yuan/week; the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 106.6955 yuan/barrel, down 1.7328 yuan/day and 2.3432 yuan/week [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing a downward trend with fluctuations. The supply side has seen a decline in the asphalt operating rate, and the expected production in November is decreasing. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, and the national shipments have increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly decreased and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Due to factors such as international events affecting crude oil prices and the large decline of the asphalt basis in Shandong from a high level, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt is expected to produce 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased last week, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The refinery supply in the East China region increased, and the national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Qilu Petrochemical refinery is in stable production, and the asphalt output will increase slightly. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, the weather has improved, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly from a low level, and the asphalt basis in Shandong has decreased significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.79% to 3279 yuan/ton, near the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3263 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3295 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3762 to 197,268 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract decreased to 41 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing and Guangzhou Petrochemical have stopped production for maintenance, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - July 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1%. As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 24, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% compared with the week of October 17 and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows an upward - trending volatility. The supply side has a lower - than - normal capacity utilization rate, and the downstream industry's capacity utilization rate has mostly increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries is at a historical low. Considering factors such as international political and economic situations and the current state of the domestic market, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 268.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a 0.1% decline) and an increase of 35.0 million tons year - on - year (a 15.0% increase). Shandong Shengxing, Guangzhou Petrochemical and other refineries are under maintenance [1][4]. - Demand side: This week, the capacity utilization rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The capacity utilization rate of road asphalt rose 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [1][4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 24, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Market shipment: This week, the refinery supply in East China increased, and the national shipment volume increased 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still a constraint [1]. - International situation: There will be a new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. The US has imposed sanctions on important Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - Suggestion: The basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level in recent days and is currently at a moderately high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.92% to 3,299 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,049 to 195,746 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to 51 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of asphalt dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, slightly up from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The price of asphalt futures increased with the rebound of oil prices, and the previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position [6] - The overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, the expected supply may decline, and the funds for small and medium - sized projects are still in a severe situation [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3172 yuan/ton, closed at 3249 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3249 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3157 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.95%, and a trading volume of 26.95 million lots. BU2512 opened at 3198 yuan/ton, closed at 3268 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3268 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3192 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.51%, and a trading volume of 5.05 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in the Northeast, North China, and Shandong regions decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable. The rigid demand for asphalt was poor, and the trading atmosphere was light [6] - Supply: Liaohe Petrochemical plans to increase production, but the reduction of Jinling Petrochemical in East China and the non - resumption of asphalt production plans of some local refineries in Shandong and Henan are expected to lead to a decline in the asphalt operating rate this week [6] - Demand: The rainfall in the northern region has decreased, providing some support for rigid demand. However, the funds for small and medium - sized projects are still in a severe situation, and speculative demand is also relatively low [6] - Operation Suggestion: The previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position [6] 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although the supply of asphalt resources from Guangzhou Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical decreased, the social inventory of asphalt was still abundant, and some traders sold at low prices, making it difficult to push up the price [7] - East China Market: The mainstream intended price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3410 - 3500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The prices of futures and spot sources increased, and the price difference between social inventory and refinery truck transportation narrowed. However, the overall demand was average, and the procurement enthusiasm of industry players was weak, still putting pressure on the spot price [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an upward trend in a volatile manner. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of reduction. The demand is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and slow infrastructure investment growth. Considering the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons (0.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries like Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, which will reduce asphalt production, but it remains at a high level [1]. - **Demand**: After the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a neutral - low level. The downstream construction rate of asphalt is mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, but there are temperature drops in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and capital constraints, which affect asphalt demand [1]. - **Recommendation**: Due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.95% to 3,249 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,157 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,249 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 4,829 to 186,849 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract dropped to 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The asphalt开工率 in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [4]. - **Investment Data**: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, a slight improvement from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - **Downstream Construction**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream construction rate of asphalt was mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [1][4]. - **Social Financing**: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to the high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% compared with the week of October 10, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].