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宝城期货甲醇早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:20
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. In the short - term, it is slightly stronger in a volatile manner, in the medium - term it is volatile, and on the day it is slightly weaker in a volatile manner, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is slightly stronger in a volatile manner, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly weaker in a volatile manner, and the overall view is weak operation. The core logic is that the cost drive has weakened, leading to a weak and volatile trend of methanol [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - In the context of improved macro factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has recovered. However, since the night session on Friday, the domestic coal futures prices have corrected from high levels, dragging the methanol futures 2509 contract to stop rising and turn down. With the weakening of the cost - drive logic, the weak supply - demand structure of methanol has once again dominated the futures price. On Monday night, the 2509 contract closed down 1.23% to 2412 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250728
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term view of being moderately strong, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being moderately weak. The main reason is that the cost driver has weakened, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol is re - dominating the futures price [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic coal futures prices had a high - level correction and a sharp decline, which dragged the methanol futures 2509 contract down 2.80% to 2430 yuan/ton [5] Market Environment - Over the weekend, the US and Europe reached a trade agreement, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month. Against the backdrop of improved macro factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has rebounded [5] Outlook - It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a moderately weak volatile trend on Monday [5] Definition of Price Movements - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Moderately strong/weak only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [2][3][4]