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宝城期货甲醇早报-20250808
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak. The reference view is weak operation, and the core logic is that the decline in coal futures prices leads to the weak oscillation of methanol [1]. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that the weak supply - demand structure and the decline in domestic coal futures prices on Thursday night lead to the oscillatory - weak trend of the methanol futures 2509 contract, with the futures price slightly down 0.04% to 2394 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Friday [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250806
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The price of methanol is affected by coal price rebound and its own supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term trend of methanol 2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly stronger, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.46% to 2392 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - The rebound of domestic coal futures prices drives the methanol futures 2509 contract to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:10
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and mid - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation and weakness [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On the night of last Friday, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.83% to 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillation - weakening trend on Monday [5] Core Logic - The recent Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden led to the continuation of the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures as scheduled. After the digestion of positive factors, the sharp decline in coal futures prices dragged down the methanol market [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly dropped by 0.08% to 2410 yuan/ton on Thursday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Friday [5] 3.2 Driving Factors - After the digestion of positive factors from the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the significant decline in coal futures prices has dragged down the methanol price. Also, although the Sino - US talks were in - depth, differences still exist [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250731
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:17
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5]. - The core reason is the decline in coal prices and the digestion of positive factors after the Sino - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is the decline in coal prices [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - After the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, although there was in - depth communication, differences still exist. After the positive factors were digested, affected by the sharp decline in coal futures prices, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.90% to 2410 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250728
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term view of being moderately strong, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being moderately weak. The main reason is that the cost driver has weakened, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol is re - dominating the futures price [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic coal futures prices had a high - level correction and a sharp decline, which dragged the methanol futures 2509 contract down 2.80% to 2430 yuan/ton [5] Market Environment - Over the weekend, the US and Europe reached a trade agreement, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month. Against the backdrop of improved macro factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has rebounded [5] Outlook - It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a moderately weak volatile trend on Monday [5] Definition of Price Movements - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Moderately strong/weak only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [2][3][4]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250717
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a sideways - weak trend in the short - term, sideways in the medium - term, and a sideways - weak trend intraday [1][5] - The imbalance between supply and demand, with increasing supply and decreasing demand, is the main factor leading to the weak operation of methanol. However, the possible new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a sideways - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.59% to 2362 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a sideways - weak trend [5] 3.2 Market Logic - Domestically, methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving, increasing external supply expectations. Ports are entering a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand is entering the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5] - After the previous sharp correction, the bearish sentiment has been released. The recent high - level meeting in China has set the tone for governance of low - price disorderly competition and promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250709
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand structure is weak, with increasing internal and external supply and decreasing downstream demand. However, the potential new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Outlook - Short - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Medium - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Intraday view of methanol 2509: weakly volatile [1][5] - Overall reference view: weakly running [1][5] Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are arriving, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are in a inventory - building cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season [5]. - Policy factor: The recent high - level meeting proposed to address low - price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. Price Performance - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2366 yuan/ton [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250626
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 02:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5] - The geopolitical factor weakens, and the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strongly - biased trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - After experiencing a sharp decline on Tuesday and stabilizing on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures had an oversold rebound on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.30% to 2419 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - As US President Trump's comments indicated the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and then the two countries announced a formal cease - fire, the geopolitical trading logic weakened. The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures and international methanol prices declined [5]