Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and volatile - bullish respectively [1][5] - Although the supply - demand structure of methanol is weak, the decline of the methanol 2601 contract is limited due to improved macro - sentiment, and it may maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Wednesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile - bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1] Price and Market Analysis - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.46% to 2,383 yuan/ton on Tuesday night, but the downward space is limited [5] Core Logic - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure and a downward price center [5] - The improvement of macro - sentiment has boosted the market, making the methanol 2601 contract likely to maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Wednesday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.28% to 15,955 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [5]. For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a stable and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.09% to 11,680 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：本周美联储迎来 9 月议息会议，降息 25 个基点的概 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has significantly improved. Meanwhile, the cost support of polypropylene has weakened as the crude oil futures price lacks upward momentum. Given that domestic petrochemical plants have resumed production after maintenance, the supply pressure of polypropylene has increased, and the downstream demand has failed to meet expectations with a sluggish consumer market. In the context of the strong macro - expectation competing with the weak industrial reality, it is expected that the polypropylene futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Factor - The Fed chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting sent a dovish signal, which was widely interpreted as a clear sign of an interest rate cut after the September FOMC meeting. After his speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.1%. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has improved the macro - sentiment and boosted the prices of domestic energy and chemical futures to stabilize and strengthen [3]. Cost Factor - Polypropylene's upstream raw materials mainly include coal and crude oil. Although the domestic coal futures price rebounded last Friday night, strengthening the cost support for coal - chemical products, the crude oil futures price lacks the impetus to drive polypropylene prices higher. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has been shrinking due to political efforts to cool down the geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Also, the oil market's focus has shifted to the situation of supply - demand surplus, weakening the cost support for polypropylene futures [4]. Supply Factor - Last week, as the maintenance devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical resumed operation, the loss of polypropylene production continued to decline, leading to a slight increase in overall production. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the average domestic polypropylene capacity utilization rate was 78.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The domestic polypropylene production last week was 78.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons (0.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.84 tons (17.73%). With the planned restart of Jingbo Polyolefin's double - line this week, the domestic polypropylene production is expected to continue to rise [5]. Demand Factor - In late August, the downstream demand for domestic polypropylene failed to meet expectations, and the consumer market remained sluggish. Non - standard product sales pressure forced enterprises to cut prices to reduce inventory, leading to a weak decline in polypropylene prices. The average operating rates of most domestic polypropylene downstream industries showed an upward trend, except for BOPP and PP pipes, which declined, and modified PP, which remained stable. The BOPP industry's overall orders trended upward, but some enterprises stopped production due to insufficient orders, resulting in a decline in the industry's operating rate. For PP pipes, without policy support, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the demand was limited, causing the industry's operating rate to decline [6].