Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing shrinking profit margins and falling prices due to high costs and low steel prices, with an expected increase in steel production cuts [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with prices oscillating downward. The expected increase in long - term supply and the rising number of loss - making steel mills are factors to watch [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weakening demand expectations, with prices oscillating. The supply and demand dynamics of both are affected by factors such as steel mill profits and production levels [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a short - term price increase due to demand boost, but the long - term supply remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading volume was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 9.14 tons, a daily decrease of 3.37% and a weekly decrease of 23.79% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel supply is driven by fundamentals. High costs and falling steel prices have squeezed profit margins, and some steel mills' rebar businesses are in the red. High production and inventory levels have increased the expectation of production cuts [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. The spot price in Tangshan ports declined, and trading volume was down 33.08% to 124.4 tons. The forward - looking spot trading volume increased by 90.65% to 173.5 tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore arrivals increased, iron - water production remained high, and port inventory rose slightly. Due to the high probability of increased long - term supply and high price valuations, attention should be paid to the negative impact of steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures main contracts oscillated. The coal price in the main production areas continued to rise, and some terminal demand for restocking was released. The import market was strong [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking enterprise profits are near the break - even point. High iron - water production provides short - term support for coke prices, but the demand outlook is weak. After the holiday, coking coal production has recovered, and demand remains resilient [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to increased demand from metallurgical and chemical industries, restocking demand, and rising prices from large groups. In ports, the market sentiment was positive, and prices increased. The import market was stable to strong, and prices were more competitive [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term prices will oscillate due to demand boost, but the long - term supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided [8]