Core Insights - The article discusses former U.S. President Bill Clinton's concerns about the current state of U.S.-China relations and the implications of the ongoing trade war initiated during Donald Trump's presidency [1][3] - Clinton predicts that China will eventually surpass the U.S. to become the world's largest economy, drawing parallels to the historical shift from British to American dominance [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Clinton expresses deep concern over the current U.S. government's handling of globalization, which he believes has damaged America's leadership on the global stage [1][3] - He emphasizes the need for China to adopt a generous approach towards the U.S. once it achieves victory in the economic competition, contrasting this with the prevailing hardline stance in U.S. politics [3] Group 2: Historical Context - During Clinton's presidency, significant efforts were made to integrate China into the global economy, including pushing for China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) [5] - Clinton's administration had high expectations for economic integration, predicting a 300% increase in U.S. exports to China by 2010 and the creation of millions of jobs [5] Group 3: Current Economic Landscape - Despite initial optimism, Clinton acknowledges that the anticipated economic benefits did not materialize as expected, with a significant trade deficit of $382.9 billion in 2022 [7] - He notes that China has successfully upgraded its industries and made advancements in high-tech fields, which were not anticipated by U.S. policymakers [7] Group 4: Political Reflections - Clinton expresses disappointment in the current U.S. political landscape, criticizing the short-sightedness of both major parties and their failure to address the social divisions exacerbated by globalization [9] - He advocates for a cooperative approach between the U.S. and China, suggesting that the stability of the 21st century depends on finding a new way for the two superpowers to coexist [9]

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 一、过去一周资产的走势：关税谈判是最根本的驱动因素 从过去一周（0506-0513）全球资产的走势看，对中美关税谈判预期是最关键的因素。周初市场还在为 印巴两个核国家冲突可能失控而担心全球不确定性的增大，后半周就对贸易谈判成功寄予希望，随着协 议的达成，全球投资者风险偏好陡然提升。 上期首席视点指出对于过渡期中国的资产配置，需要明确关税战是个外生变量，在博弈进入相持状态时 需要将重心放到内生变量的改变上来。这种判断的前提是贸易战没有改变中国现代化进程的趋势和结 构，只是对节奏有所影响。甚至在外部压力的催化下，科技强国和刺激内需的战略得到更大程度上的强 化。随着《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》的发布，消耗战带来的风险大大弱化，投资者的风险偏好得 以修复，资产配置的节奏随之变化。 从具体的走势看，黄金下跌，石油大涨，股票资产全线反弹。从国别看，俄罗斯MOEX指数、纳斯达克 指数、香港恒指、恒生科技涨幅靠前。从A股的行业结构看，受海外军事冲突事件的引发，国防军工过 去一周走势靠前。 二、超预期协议的达成——基于消费者博弈的视角 从公开的研究报告及各媒体的报道来看，本次协议的达 ...