引子 一、政策红利下的冰火两重天 河北这份规划确实分量十足。要打造"环京智能算力集聚区"，光模块、液冷技术、量子计算等细分领域被券商报告用加粗字体反复强调。中泰证券说这 是"十年一遇的产业机遇"，中信证券更预测要复制美股科技股的长期牛市。 但翻开账户看看，持有相关概念的散户有几个真正赚到钱了？去年电子板块连续领涨时，我认识的老李在光模块龙头股上三进三出，最后算账还不如一直拿 着ETF的朋友赚得多。这就像去米其林餐厅却只吃到餐前面包——明明坐在盛宴现场，却尝不到主菜滋味。 二、牛市最危险的两种幻觉 河北"十四五"规划刚发布，算力概念股就集体躁动。看着满屏飘红的K线，老张在营业部拍着大腿直呼"又错过了"。这一幕何其熟悉——每次政策东风一 来，散户总是后知后觉。但更残酷的是，即便赶上了风口，多数人依然赚不到钱。这让我想起2025年那轮牛市，指数涨了900点，广聚能源的投资者却眼睁 睁看着60%的涨幅灰飞烟灭… 这时我依赖的「机构库存」数据给出了截然不同的信号：前三次调整中机构资金暗流涌动，第四次却突然销声匿迹。这就像赌场里的荷官突然换牌——表面 规则没变，底层逻辑早已天翻地覆。 十年看盘让我总结出散户最致命的两个认 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 134.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, ranking among the top major economies globally [2] - The economic structure continues to optimize, with the primary industry accounting for 6.8%, secondary industry 36.5%, and tertiary industry 56.7% of GDP [2] - The three drivers of growth—consumption, investment, and exports—are working in synergy, contributing 2.2 percentage points, 1.3 percentage points, and 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - China is making significant breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies such as 6G communication, AI large models, and quantum computing [3] - The first international 6G field test network was established in July 2024, demonstrating potential for 6G transmission capabilities [3] - By March 2025, a major breakthrough in quantum communication was achieved, establishing a comprehensive quantum communication network [3] Group 3: New Energy and Carbon Neutrality - The new energy sector is becoming a growth engine under the "dual carbon" goals, with China accounting for over 60% of global new installations in wind and solar energy in 2024 [4] - The installed capacity of new energy storage has surpassed 70 million kilowatts, with leading companies like CATL and BYD holding a 65.5% market share in the global power battery market [4] - Solid-state battery technology has achieved mass production breakthroughs, with energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg, boosting the export of new energy vehicles to the world's highest volume [4] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - The aging population and health consumption upgrades are creating a trillion-yuan market, with national health expenditure reaching 2.03 trillion yuan in 2024 [5] - Technologies such as AI-assisted diagnosis, gene editing, and telemedicine are accelerating implementation, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Mindray Medical expanding globally [5] Group 5: Financial and Consumer Trends - The financial sector is progressing steadily amid strict regulations and digitalization, with total assets of financial institutions reaching 495.59 trillion yuan, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [6] - The banking sector's total assets amounted to 444.57 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [6] - In the consumer market, new retail and domestic brands are rising, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Pop Mart reshaping market dynamics through data-driven and IP operations [6] Group 6: Emerging and Future Industries - Emerging and future industries are seen as drivers of economic growth and international competitiveness, with the low-altitude economy projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [7] - The embodied intelligence market is expected to exceed 480 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in smart manufacturing and services [7] Group 7: Super CEO Selection - The "2025 Super CEO" selection is open to all outstanding enterprises in China, covering both listed and unlisted companies [8] - The evaluation criteria include company size (25%), financial performance (40%), shareholder returns (20%), and personal reputation (15%) [8] - A total of 288 CEOs have entered the candidate pool, with the final list to feature the top 25 CEOs [8]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have shown impressive performance, with the computing power sector leading the market, and there are emerging opportunities in models and applications for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The computing power sector has outperformed the market, indicating strong growth potential [1] - There is an expectation that domestic computing power will replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - Domestic chip manufacturers have begun exploring solutions like super nodes to overcome performance disadvantages of single cards by leveraging multi-card advantages [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The construction of multi-card clusters raises demands for the quantity and quality of components, creating greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Specific sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCBs, and quantum computing are expected to see higher performance elasticity [1] Group 4: Application and Model Opportunities - There is potential for localized explosive growth in models and applications, particularly in AI-enabled internet tech giants and rapidly commercializing AI applications such as AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and autonomous driving [1]

Core Insights - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have shown impressive performance, with the computing power sector leading the market [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, domestic computing power is on the rise, with performance elasticity and investment certainty expected to replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [1] Sector Analysis - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - Domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for single card performance disadvantages by leveraging multi-card advantages, facilitating breakthroughs in computing power [1] - The construction of multi-card clusters demands higher quality and quantity of components, presenting greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Sub-sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCBs, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Application Opportunities - The model and application side is anticipated to witness localized explosive opportunities, particularly in internet tech giants empowered by AI [1] - Fast-developing AI application sectors include AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and commercial autonomous driving [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a frenzy driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence investments [1] - Major companies are heavily investing in AI models, research, quantum computing, and data center construction, leading to increased demand for electricity [1] - There are indications of market bubbles due to concentrated investments in technology [1] Investment Trends - Companies are increasing investments in AI and related technologies due to fears of falling behind in strategic competition [1] - The concentration of market value is notable, with over 30% of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization held by the top seven technology companies, a level of concentration described as "almost unprecedented" [1] Economic Concerns - The U.S. faces unsustainable sovereign debt levels, with unclear solutions to address this issue [1] - Despite strong economic growth, the recent depreciation of the dollar may reflect foreign investors' concerns about accumulating risks in the U.S. financial sector [1]

Core Insights - The reports highlight the continuous optimization and upgrading of China's information infrastructure, with significant growth in the digital economy and expansion of the digital culture industry [1][2] Group 1: Internet Development - As of June 2025, the total number of fixed broadband access users in China reached 684 million, with 4.55 million 5G base stations built and 1.118 billion 5G mobile phone users [1] - The number of IPv6 internet active users reached 834 million, accounting for over 75% of total internet users [1] Group 2: Digital Economy Growth - China's digital economy is developing steadily and deeply, with highlights in digital industrialization and ongoing digital transformation [1] - The quantum computing industry is expected to exceed 11.56 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%, representing 41.2% of the overall quantum technology industry [1] - China holds 60% of global artificial intelligence patents, and 6G patent applications account for approximately 40.3% globally, ranking first [1] Group 3: E-commerce and Digital Culture - By December 2024, the number of online shopping users in China is projected to reach 974 million, making up 87.9% of the total internet users, with online retail sales growing by 7.2% [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest online retail market for 12 consecutive years [1] - The digital culture industry has entered the "trillion-level" scale, with revenue from large-scale cultural and related enterprises reaching 14.15 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] - The digital culture industry, including micro-short dramas, "guzi economy," cloud performances, digital games, and digital reading, continues to thrive and expand [2]

Core Insights - Quantum technology is becoming a focal point for global innovation and is recognized as a key area for measuring national technological strength [2][3] - The successful development of the "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computing prototype marks a significant shift for China from a follower to a leader in quantum computing [2][3] - The quantum technology index reached a historical high with a year-to-date increase of 40.92%, indicating growing market expectations [1][2] Industry Development - The quantum technology market in China is projected to reach $9.758 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.45% from 2024 to 2029 [4] - The industry is currently in a transitional phase, moving from "0 to 1" to "1 to N," with quantum communication being the most mature sector [4][5] - Key challenges for the commercialization of quantum technology include the maturity of technology and the completeness of the industrial chain [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Quantum communication, particularly quantum key distribution (QKD), is seen as the most mature and likely to achieve large-scale revenue first [6][7] - Companies like Guodun Quantum are gaining attention, with significant holdings in various funds, reflecting investor interest in the sector [8][9] - The recent surge in quantum technology stocks is attributed to both technological advancements and policy support, indicating a potential long-term investment opportunity [9][10]

Core Insights - The UK government has announced a quantum technology support plan aimed at accelerating the application of quantum technology in key sectors such as healthcare, transportation, defense, and energy, contributing to economic growth and industrial upgrading [1][2] - By 2045, quantum technology is projected to contribute £11 billion (approximately 102.6 billion RMB) to the UK's GDP and create over 100,000 jobs [1] - The funding will focus on core areas like quantum sensing, supporting cutting-edge technology research projects to transition quantum technology from laboratories to practical applications [1] Government Initiatives - The UK government will enhance domestic quantum research infrastructure by establishing specialized institutions such as the Nuclear Defense and Security Quantum Center and the Quantum National Metrology Institute [1] - Key facilities like quantum computing testbeds will be deployed, and resources from universities and research institutions will be integrated to focus on applications in nuclear technology, healthcare, and transportation [1] - The government is also expanding international cooperation by signing agreements with multiple countries and regions to promote research collaboration, talent exchange, and technology commercialization in the quantum field [1]

Core Insights - The major bull stocks this year are concentrated in sectors such as artificial intelligence, precious metals, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, many of which are closely related to future technology industries [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the forward-looking layout of future industries, promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G as new economic growth points [1] - The 2025 Government Work Report explicitly states the establishment of a growth mechanism for future industry investment, nurturing sectors like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [1] Industry Analysis - Huazhong Securities believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clear deployment for emerging industries and forward-looking layouts, reflecting strong policy support for high-level technological development [1] - According to data, 142 stocks have been mentioned in institutional research reports related to future industries, with 66 stocks involving embodied intelligence, 33 stocks involving hydrogen energy or nuclear fusion, and 20 stocks involving quantum technology [2] - Quantum technology, including quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum measurement, is expected to see significant growth during the "14th Five-Year" period, with continuous technological breakthroughs paving the way for future commercialization [3] Company Performance - Companies like Guandun Quantum and New Era (002527) are predicted to have net profit growth rates exceeding 100% over the next two years, while others like Hezhong Intelligent (603011) and Shenzhou Information (000555) are expected to exceed 50% [3] - The average stock price increase for the mentioned companies is close to 62%, significantly outperforming the broader market, with stocks in embodied intelligence and nuclear fusion showing particularly strong performance [3] - Silver Wheel Co. (002126) and Zhongjian Technology (002779) have been highlighted for their involvement in the embodied intelligence sector, with both companies having seven research reports mentioning them [2]

Core Insights - Sichuan Province is implementing a "Quantum Technology Industry Breakthrough Development Action Plan" to enhance innovation and support policies in quantum technology sectors [1] - The quantum technology industry in China is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in quantum communication, which has already seen initial commercialization [1][2] - Quantum computing is recognized as a disruptive technology, with ongoing advancements in various technical routes and a projected substantial progress in the next 5 to 10 years [2] Group 1: Sichuan Province Initiatives - The "Action Plan" will focus on technology innovation, industry innovation, enterprise cultivation, application promotion, and resource assurance [1] - Specific support policies will be developed to drive the growth of the quantum technology industry in Sichuan [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Trends - Quantum communication is leading the way in commercialization, with key players dominating the industry [1] - The quantum computing market is anticipated to experience rapid development between 2028 and 2030, warranting ongoing attention to the sector [1] - The quantum technology sector is currently in its early development stage, with a focus on critical components like lasers and dilution refrigerators [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Quantum computing is seen as one of the most disruptive frontier technologies, with diverse technical routes such as superconducting, ion traps, neutral atoms, photonic, and silicon semiconductors [2] - The industry is gradually forming a development pattern that integrates basic research, engineering development, application exploration, and industrial cultivation [2] - Reports indicate that quantum computing is still in the early stages of technological breakthroughs, with potential for significant advancements in the coming years [2]