Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a significant downturn, with property values being reassessed and liquidity issues arising for many homeowners [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Property prices in non-core areas of first-tier cities have rapidly declined, with new residential sales area dropping by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and the listing volume of second-hand homes increasing by over 30% [3]. - In a specific metro line area, new home prices peaked at nearly 50,000 yuan per square meter in 2020, but by 2024, owners were listing at 32,000 yuan per square meter, and developers were offering promotions starting at 18,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, yet sales remained sluggish [3][5]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - The decline in the real estate market is not solely due to reduced purchasing power; rather, there is a fundamental shift in buyer confidence. A survey indicated that the proportion of residents preferring to save increased by 2.3 percentage points, while those inclined to invest decreased [5]. - The mindset of potential buyers has shifted from "fear of missing out" to "fear of overpaying," leading to more cautious decision-making in the context of slowing income growth and a pressured job market [5][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average urban household now owns more than 1.1 homes, indicating a transition from absolute housing shortage to structural oversupply, particularly in cities with population outflows and insufficient industrial support [7]. - The phenomenon of "having a price but no market" is becoming the norm, as the financial investment aspect of real estate diminishes, returning focus to the fundamental need for housing [7][9]. Group 4: Changing Buyer Priorities - In this transitional phase of the real estate market, genuine housing needs are becoming the primary driver of transactions, with factors such as education, commuting, and community environment taking precedence over speculative buying [7][9]. - Experts suggest that buyers should assess their real housing needs, stable repayment capabilities, and have realistic expectations regarding price fluctuations, as the price correction process reflects a return to value [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a notable year-on-year decrease in sales figures for major developers, indicating a contraction in the market overall [3][6]. Market Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 20,730.1 billion, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year decline, which is an increase in the decline rate by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. - Only five companies achieved sales exceeding 1 billion in the first seven months of 2025, a decrease from ten companies in 2023 and six in 2024, highlighting a shrinking new home market [3][6]. Market Trends - The proportion of new home sales in Chengdu has dropped from 48.7% in 2022 to 39.8% in 2023, with the share of second-hand homes rising to 60.2%, indicating a shift towards a stock market [5][6]. - The trend of increasing second-hand home sales is expected to continue, as the market transitions into a stock era where the focus shifts from new home development to the trading and operation of existing properties [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment shows a general decline in both new and second-hand home prices, with the adjustment period still ongoing [10]. - The transition from an incremental to a stock market phase is characterized by significant price adjustments, where the value of properties will vary greatly based on their quality and marketability [9][10].