近期，有位在三线城市购房的亲友向我咨询：他刚花120万买的房子，五年后到底能值多少钱？说实 话，这个问题看似简单，背后却牵扯到经济趋势、城市发展、政策调控等多重因素。为了给出相对客观 的参考，我特地请教了几位在房地产行业深耕多年的朋友，他们从不同角度给出了自己的判断。今天， 我就把这些信息整理出来，用更贴近现实的角度，和大家聊聊房子未来价值的那些事儿。 一、市场整体态势：分化成为关键词 从全国范围看，房地产市场早已告别"普涨"时代。根据2024年统计部门发布的数据，房价整体呈现稳中 有降的态势，但不同能级的城市之间差异显著。一线和重点二线城市因资源集聚、人口流入，房价支撑 力较强，部分区域甚至保持温和上涨；而多数三、四线城市则面临需求放缓、库存压力等问题，房价出 现不同程度回调。 这种分化格局意味着，同样120万的房子，放在不同城市，五年后的命运可能天差地别。正如一位在三 线城市做了近二十年中介的朋友所说："过去闭眼买房都能赚，现在得睁大眼睛挑。人口往外走、房子 不好卖，已是不少中小城市的常态。" 二、业内观点：理性看待增值空间 几位行业人士虽然视角不同，但普遍认同一个观点：房地产高速增值阶段已基本结束，未来 ...

Core Insights - The burden of mortgage loans has become a significant economic pressure for contemporary Chinese families, with over 78 million households struggling to meet monthly mortgage payments [1][3] - The average mortgage payment-to-income ratio has reached 42%, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized reasonable level of 30%, indicating a state of financial strain for most households [1][3] - The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) for mortgage-holding families has reached an alarming 3.6 times, suggesting that it would take nearly four years of total income to pay off the mortgage debt [3] Mortgage Debt Statistics - As of June 2025, the total mortgage balance in China has risen to 56.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [3] - The average housing price in first-tier cities increased by 4.7% from 2024 to 2025, while the actual disposable income growth for urban residents was only 3.2% during the same period [3] Impact on Family Life - A national survey in the first quarter of 2025 revealed that 64% of mortgage-holding families had to cut back on basic living expenses due to mortgage pressure, and 58% found it difficult to save effectively for the future [4] - The financial strain has led 37% of families to postpone or abandon plans for having children, indicating a profound impact on family planning and quality of life [4] Interest Rate Environment - The average interest rate for first-time home loans is currently 4.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2024, but this reduction has minimal impact on the financial burden of families already under significant debt [4] Employment Market Concerns - The urban unemployment rate reached 5.3% in the second quarter of 2025, with the unemployment rate for the 25-34 age group at 7.8%, exacerbating the anxiety of young mortgage-holding families [5] - The decline in property investment returns has disappointed families hoping to improve their financial situation through real estate appreciation, with new residential prices in 70 major cities rising only 2.1% in the first half of 2025, effectively close to zero when adjusted for inflation [5] Consumer Spending Trends - Mortgage pressure has led to an 8.7% year-on-year decrease in spending on non-essential items by mortgage-holding families in the first half of 2025, affecting sectors like automotive, high-end electronics, and tourism [5] - Families are exploring various strategies to alleviate their mortgage burden, with 32% considering renting out spare rooms and 26% contemplating downsizing to smaller homes [5] Government Response - In March 2025, multiple government departments issued measures to promote a stable and healthy real estate market, including encouraging banks to offer more flexible repayment options for qualifying mortgage families [6] - Long-term solutions to alleviate mortgage pressure require substantial income growth, a rational real estate market, diversified financial products, and prudent personal financial planning [6] Changing Attitudes Towards Homeownership - A survey in 2025 indicated that 43% of respondents aged 25-35 are not in a hurry to buy homes, a significant increase from 29% in 2020, reflecting a shift in values among younger generations [8] - The financial pressure from mortgages is prompting a reevaluation of housing as merely a residence rather than an investment tool, raising questions about the current housing system and personal financial choices [8]