Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in September 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 major and medium-sized cities in China showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, signaling a potential stabilization in the market [1][4]. - In September, new home prices in 63 cities fell compared to the previous month, and all 70 cities reported lower second-hand home prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. - In Shandong province, cities like Jinan and Qingdao experienced a consistent decline in both new and second-hand home prices in September 2023, with Jinan's new home prices down 0.4% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2 - The narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices is seen as a positive signal, indicating that previous policy effects are beginning to take hold, alleviating long-term downward pressure on the market [4][5]. - Core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai showed resilience, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and Shanghai achieving a significant year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4][5]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, it is anticipated that continued policy easing will support transaction volumes in core cities, while non-core areas and many small cities will need to adopt "price for volume" strategies to reduce inventory [5].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a relative stability, with a narrowing decline in housing prices year-on-year, indicating the gradual impact of previous policies [1][3][5] Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [2][3] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points, with Shanghai showing a 5.6% increase [3][4] Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market continues to face significant downward pressure, with first-tier cities seeing a month-on-month decline of 1.0% in September, consistent with the previous month [4][5] - The average listing time for second-hand homes in lower-tier cities has increased to 99 days, indicating greater difficulty in inventory turnover [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of supportive policies in first-tier cities has helped stabilize transaction volumes, while smaller cities may need to adopt price reductions to stimulate sales [5][6] - Analysts predict that the ongoing effects of policy adjustments will lead to a further narrowing of year-on-year price declines in the fourth quarter, with potential for first-tier cities to see positive growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the year-on-year decline of housing prices across various cities, indicating a potential recovery phase [1][2][5]. Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [3]. - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased, with Shanghai leading at a 5.6% year-on-year increase [4]. Market Analysis - Industry experts suggest that the real estate market is still undergoing deep adjustments, but the trend towards stabilization is evident, with some cities entering a recovery phase [6]. - The average month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices has decreased from 0.91% before the "9.26 new policy" last year to 0.58% this year, indicating a narrowing of price declines [6][7]. - The combination of recent policy measures is seen as a key driver for the improvement in year-on-year price metrics [7]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that from October to December, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across various cities will continue to narrow, with first-tier cities potentially seeing a shift from negative to positive growth [2][7].