马年春节的鞭炮声刚落，中国楼市便连扔三枚"深水炸弹"。 2月25日，短短一天之内，先有上海宣布限购松绑，后有广州土拍诞生地王，久违的躁动瞬间点燃市场。而在刚刚过去的春节黄金周，三亚以日均5亿的成 交额，为旅居楼市率先点火。跨越南北的三个城市，用政策、土拍与数据，为2026年的房地产市场注入了澎湃的想象。 上海：最后的堡垒"松绑"，信号意义大于一切 去年12月份，北京发布限购松绑相关政策后，市场就一直猜测上海限购松绑会何时发布。悬念，终于在昨日落地。 2月25日，上海住建委、房管局等五部门联合出台《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，涉及住房限购、房产税及公积金等7条政策。核心内容 为： 从政策层面看，上海"沪七条"的颁布政策的昭示作用远大于其实际意义。意味着全国在限购政策上已经彻底解绑。房地产健康发展的总基调进一步得到贯 彻，向市场发出了最明确的止跌企稳信号。 广州：243轮鏖战！马场地块问鼎"双料地王" 就在"沪七条"发布的同一天，广州珠江新城马场地块经过243轮、9小时的鏖战，最终花落越秀地产。地块成交总价236亿元。成为广州土拍历史上成交总 价第二的地块，仅次于2009年255亿的广州番禺亚运村地 ...

本报告导读： 上周(2 月 13-19 日)成交回落。26 年春节黄金周(2 月 16-22 日)成交相对 25 年春节 黄金周(1 月 28 日-2 月 3 日)回升。全年回稳趋势不变，维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 7周成交回落，行业定位积极有利于市 场复苏》2026.02.16 房地产《租赁住房 REITs 投资体系》2026.02.13 房地产《第 6周成交分化，房企减少拿地改善新房 市场预期》2026.02.08 第 8 周成交回落、春节黄金周回升，整体回稳不变 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 谢盐(分析师) 021-23185696 xieyan@gtht.com S088052504 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a mixed trend, with new residential property prices showing signs of decline overall, despite some cities reporting slight increases in prices [2][5]. New Residential Property Price Trends - In January 2026, 8 cities reported an increase or stable prices for new residential properties month-on-month, a decrease of 4 cities compared to the previous month [3]. - The city with the highest month-on-month increase in new residential property prices is Dalian, with a rise of 0.2%, while Xuzhou saw the largest decrease at 0.9% [4]. - Year-on-year, only 5 cities reported stable or increasing prices, with Shanghai showing the highest increase of 4.2% [5]. Second-hand Residential Property Price Trends - For second-hand residential properties, 2 cities (Yangzhou and Zhanjiang) reported month-on-month price increases, while Shenyang's prices remained stable [6]. - The month-on-month price declines for second-hand properties are generally less than 1%, indicating a narrowing trend [6]. - Year-on-year, second-hand residential property prices continue to decline across the board, suggesting that a significant recovery in this segment is still needed for market stabilization [7]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is seeing policy measures aimed at stabilizing the sector, with some cities experiencing an increase in transaction volumes for second-hand properties, which may indicate a potential recovery [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese real estate stocks continue to rise, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Sunac China (up 7.38%), CIFI Holdings (up 7.06%), R&F Properties (up 5.36%), and Vanke (up 5.18%) [1] - As of January 2026, the national real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with improved market confidence [1] - According to CRIC data, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in 13 key cities in January was approximately 8.1 million square meters, representing a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year growth of 33% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy measures include Shanghai's initiation of purchasing second-hand housing for rental housing projects and Foshan's allowance for real estate project delays and reduction of corporate penalties [1] - Longzhong Securities reports that the policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, although there are increasing downward pressures since April of last year [1] - The current stock prices are relatively close to the bottom, with limited premium, and the market valuation increase provides room for a rebound [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the rate of decline in both supply and demand, although overall sales still decreased year-on-year [1][2] - Structural opportunities exist in core cities and certain second and third-tier cities, with some companies poised to strengthen their competitive advantages [1][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of housing prices as a key indicator for market stabilization, with a focus on observing signals of price stabilization [3][32] Summary by Sections New Homes - In 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but the decline was less severe than in 2024 [11] - The number of new homes sold in 60 sample cities fell by 16% year-on-year, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The inventory of new homes in 80 cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, but the de-stocking period extended to approximately 32 months, the highest level since 2010 [37] Second-Hand Homes - The second-hand home market showed resilience, with total transactions in 2025 reaching approximately 2.39 million units, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [3][26] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in 2024 [32] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions continued to rise, reaching 66% in 16 key cities, up from 43% in 2021 [31] Cities and Companies - Certain cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, showed improvements in both sales volume and prices, indicating potential recovery [4][46] - Leading real estate companies like China Jinmao and China State Construction maintained or increased their market share despite overall market challenges [4][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5][50] - Companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][50] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from market recovery, along with property management companies with stable cash flows and dividend advantages [5][50]

Group 1 - The real estate sector saw significant capital inflow on the first trading day of 2026, with the only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) rising by 1% and experiencing a net subscription of 200 million shares, indicating a surge in trading activity [1][5] - Leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, New Town Holdings, and China Merchants Shekou all saw their stock prices increase by over 3% [1][5] - A commentary article published in the January issue of "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to improve and stabilize expectations in the real estate market, signaling the central government's heightened focus on managing market expectations [2][7] Group 2 - Starting January 1, the interest rates for existing housing provident fund loans and commercial loans will be lowered, with a specific reduction of 0.25 percentage points for loans issued before May 8, 2025 [2][7] - Analysts from Ping An Securities believe that the policy environment in 2026 remains promising, with a focus on mortgage rate adjustments and urban renewal progress, suggesting a new product iteration cycle is underway [2][7] - Huatai Securities recommends prioritizing investments in real estate stocks that possess "good credit, good cities, and good products," and emphasizes the importance of companies that can manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments [8] Group 3 - The real estate ETF (159707) is noted for its concentration on top-tier companies, with over 90% of its top ten constituent stocks, indicating a strong focus on central state-owned enterprises [3][8] - The ETF is designed to passively track the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which was established on December 31, 2004, and published on December 21, 2012, reflecting a significant historical performance [3][9] - In the context of industry consolidation, leading real estate firms are expected to exhibit greater resilience and potential for growth [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) shares rose over 7%, closing at HKD 44.9 with a trading volume of HKD 379 million, indicating positive market sentiment driven by recent data on the Shenzhen real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, Beike-W's stock price increased by 7.01% [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 379 million, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Shenzhen Real Estate Market - Data shows that the number of viewings for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen increased by 81% year-on-year during the New Year's holiday [1] - The signing volume for second-hand residential properties also rose by 43% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand [1] - Since December of the previous year, the Shenzhen real estate market has entered a recovery phase, with the momentum continuing into the New Year [1] Group 3: Policy Outlook - An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to improve and stabilize expectations in the real estate market [1] - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that the policy environment will remain accommodative, which is expected to support the market's stabilization in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Beike-W (02423) shares rose over 7%, currently up 7.01% at HKD 44.9, with a trading volume of HKD 379 million [1] - Data shows that during the 2026 New Year's holiday, the number of viewings for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen increased by 81% year-on-year, and the signing volume rose by 43% year-on-year [1] - Since December of last year, the Shenzhen real estate market has entered a rebound phase, with the market heat continuing into the New Year's holiday [1] Group 2 - An article in the January 1 issue of "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to effectively improve and stabilize expectations for the real estate market [1] - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the policy environment will remain accommodative, which will help consolidate and stabilize the market in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese consumer market, driven by the expansion of the middle and high-income groups [1] - The first key factor positively impacting the Chinese consumer market is the increase in middle and high-income households, with an estimated 64 million households expected to have a disposable income exceeding $25,000 by 2024, nearly doubling by 2029 [1] - In 2024, there will be 26.8 million households (equivalent to 77 million people) with an annual income exceeding $35,000, presenting significant opportunities for high-end and luxury brand operators [1] Group 2 - The second key factor is the rapid expansion of international and domestic leading grocery retailers, indicating strong consumer confidence in the Chinese market [1] - The third key factor highlights that Chinese consumers surpass global counterparts in acceptance of health, sustainability, and international products, creating opportunities for new categories and products [1] - The fourth factor indicates that the financial market anticipates the Chinese yuan will strengthen by 2026, which, along with a stabilized real estate market, will boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a slightly optimistic outlook among real estate companies regarding the financing environment for 2026, with nearly 40% of respondents expecting slight improvements compared to the current year [1] - Over half of the real estate respondents believe there will be no significant changes in the financing environment for 2026, while 44% of financial institution respondents anticipate a continued decline [1] - A significant majority of respondents from both real estate companies and financial institutions support the establishment of a national credit fund to enhance the acquisition of existing properties and land, with over 60% expressing strong support [1] Group 2 - Nearly 90% of real estate respondents believe that the most critical policy to stabilize the market is the removal of restrictive measures such as purchase limits [2] - More than 55% of real estate respondents advocate for lowering mortgage rates and increasing housing provident fund loan limits, while financial institutions emphasize the need for large-scale urban renewal [2] - A vast majority of respondents expect a decline in national commodity housing sales area for 2026, with 93% of real estate respondents predicting a decrease, and 64% expecting a drop of over 5% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Close to half of the real estate respondents anticipate that the average transaction price of residential properties will decline by more than 5% in 2026, while 67% of financial institution respondents share this view [3] - Over 60% of real estate respondents believe that the market will require one to three years to stabilize, a sentiment echoed by more than 55% of financial institution respondents [3]