Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a relative stability, with a narrowing decline in housing prices year-on-year, indicating the gradual impact of previous policies [1][3][5] Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [2][3] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points, with Shanghai showing a 5.6% increase [3][4] Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market continues to face significant downward pressure, with first-tier cities seeing a month-on-month decline of 1.0% in September, consistent with the previous month [4][5] - The average listing time for second-hand homes in lower-tier cities has increased to 99 days, indicating greater difficulty in inventory turnover [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of supportive policies in first-tier cities has helped stabilize transaction volumes, while smaller cities may need to adopt price reductions to stimulate sales [5][6] - Analysts predict that the ongoing effects of policy adjustments will lead to a further narrowing of year-on-year price declines in the fourth quarter, with potential for first-tier cities to see positive growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional real estate market in September 2025 showed signs of slight recovery, with major developers experiencing a month-on-month increase in sales, although overall sales for the first nine months still declined compared to the previous year [3][5]. Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 26,065.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, but the decline narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - In September alone, the sales of these companies increased by 11.9% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery during the "Golden September" period [3]. - The top five companies by sales in the first nine months were Poly Developments (201.7 billion yuan), Greentown China (178.5 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (170.5 billion yuan), China Resources Land (154.4 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (140.6 billion yuan) [3]. Market Dynamics - In September 2025, 72 of the top 100 real estate companies reported month-on-month growth, with 45 companies showing increases greater than 30% [5]. - The new housing market saw a steady recovery in supply and demand, with a 55% increase in supply across 30 monitored cities, reaching the second-highest level of the year [5]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen benefited from policy relaxations in August and September, leading to a month-on-month increase in transaction volumes [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that policies will maintain a loose stance, focusing on stabilizing the market and accelerating the implementation of existing measures [6]. - Core cities are expected to see a mild improvement in new housing supply, providing some support to the market, although many cities will have limited new projects, leading to continued market differentiation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in Shenzhen's housing loan market, where banks have unified the interest rate pricing mechanism for first and second homes, is expected to significantly lower borrowing costs for homebuyers, particularly benefiting those purchasing second homes [1][4][7]. Group 1: Loan Rate Adjustments - Multiple banks in Shenzhen have announced a new pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, eliminating the distinction between first and second home loans [1]. - The new interest rates for both first and second homes are set at LPR - 45 basis points (3.05%), with second home down payment requirements at 20% [1][5]. - The adjustment allows second home loan rates to align with first home rates, potentially reducing monthly payments for borrowers [4][5]. Group 2: Eligibility for Rate Reduction - The reduction in second home loan rates is not automatic; it requires borrowers to meet specific conditions, primarily that their existing loan rates exceed the national average by more than 30 basis points [2][6]. - Borrowers who qualify can apply for a rate adjustment, and banks have begun processing these applications [3][6]. Group 3: Impact on Borrowers - The previous higher rates for second homes (0.6% - 1.2% above first home rates) meant significantly higher monthly payments, but the new policy reduces this gap, easing repayment pressure for families looking to upgrade their homes [4][7]. - For example, a borrower with a remaining loan of 3 million over 20 years could save approximately 138 yuan per month, totaling around 33,000 yuan over the loan term [5]. Group 4: Market Implications - The adjustment signals a continued trend of loosening housing policies in Shenzhen, aimed at encouraging reasonable housing demand, especially for upgrading buyers [7]. - There is potential for more banks to adopt similar policies, possibly leading to further reductions in second home loan rates in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a significant increase in supply and demand following the implementation of new policies on August 25, which have removed purchase restrictions in areas outside the outer ring and allowed for the use of public housing funds for down payments [1][9]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In September, Shanghai developers launched 11 new projects with a total of 1,099 units, primarily located outside the outer ring [1]. - The new policies have led to an expected 20% to 30% increase in luxury home transactions in September [2]. - The first batch of new projects in September has a total supply area of 139,000 square meters, with a total value of approximately 8.31 billion [3]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - Some new projects have seen a decrease in listing prices compared to previous batches, making it easier for buyers to purchase homes outside the outer ring [6]. - The average price for new homes in Shanghai during the first week of September was approximately 74,914 yuan per square meter [8]. - The average price for the Dahuajing'an project in the Jing'an District is set at around 130,000 yuan per square meter [5]. Group 3: Market Activity and Future Outlook - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai has surpassed 5,000 units since the beginning of September, indicating a positive market response to the new policies [8]. - The Shanghai Real Estate Research Institute predicts that the market will gradually stabilize and improve due to the ongoing effects of the new policies and the traditional sales peak season [9]. - The government is encouraged to continue supporting the market through policy guidance and infrastructure improvements to ensure long-term stability [10].

Group 1 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has seen an increase in available listings, with a total of 75,169 effective second-hand housing units for sale as of July 7, marking a week-on-week increase of 1,311 units, reaching a new high [1] - The transaction volume for second-hand homes recorded 1,436 units last week, representing a week-on-week growth of 4.2%, indicating a sustained high level of market activity [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes has decreased to 54,600 yuan per square meter, reflecting a market trend of "trading price for volume" [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the demand for larger residential units has increased, with 42.6% of second-hand home transactions being for units larger than 90 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2] - The financial policies in Shenzhen have been favorable, with reductions in public housing loan rates and an increase in loan limits, contributing to a more active market [2] - The overall market activity is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to a combination of favorable policies and the traditional peak sales season [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with overall transaction performance exceeding the same period last year [1] - As of June 25, 2025, approximately 64,000 new and second-hand homes were sold in Shenzhen, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.6%, with residential transactions nearing 50,000 units, up 38.3% year-on-year [1] - The inventory of new residential properties available for sale in Shenzhen is 25,731 units, with a depletion cycle reduced to 7.4 months, the lowest in nearly four years, primarily due to a significant decrease in new supply [1] Group 2 - In the second-hand housing market, properties priced below 40,000 yuan per square meter accounted for 40.8% of transactions, an increase of 9% year-on-year, while properties priced below 3 million yuan made up 41.5% of transactions, up 6.1% year-on-year [2] - The bargaining rate in the second-hand housing market reached 7.6%, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020, reflecting a 0.9% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Analysts suggest that the trading sentiment in the second-hand market is facing challenges, as buyers are more selective and cautious, seeking the best value properties [2]

Core Insights - The core cities' new home sales in June may receive some support due to various market factors [1] Market Performance - In May, the land market in core cities remained relatively active, although there was a marginal weakening, with the land transfer fees in 300 cities showing a narrowing year-on-year increase [1] - High premiums continued for quality land parcels in cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1] Economic Indicators - The recent reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates has injected confidence into the market [1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, many regions continued previous promotional activities, but the overall market performance remained subdued [1] Consumer Sentiment - Weak expectations regarding employment and income among residents are currently the primary constraints on the release of housing demand [1] Policy Outlook - The housing market policies in June are expected to maintain a loose tone, focusing on the implementation of special bond storage and urban village renovation policies [1] Sales Dynamics - As the mid-year sales period approaches, real estate companies are likely to increase their launch pace and promotional efforts, alongside the introduction of "good housing" products [1] - Despite potential support for new home sales in core cities, there will still be a continuation of differentiated market conditions between cities and among new and old projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant downturn, exacerbated by economic challenges post-pandemic, despite government efforts to implement supportive policies [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The government has introduced substantial policy changes aimed at reducing the barriers to home buying, with the down payment for first-time homebuyers lowered to 15% and for second homes to 25% [5][6]. - Loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers have dropped significantly, with many cities now offering rates as low as 3.2% to 3.5%, compared to over 5% two years ago [6][9]. - Various local governments are providing direct financial incentives, such as cash subsidies for families with multiple children, with some offering up to 120,000 yuan [8][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has seen a drastic price decline, with some properties being sold at discounts of 40% or more, particularly in previously high-demand areas [17][21]. - However, there are signs of stabilization, with certain cities like Chengdu showing early signs of price recovery, indicating that the market may have reached its bottom [19][25]. - The trend of rising prices is not merely speculative; actual sales data and transaction prices reflect a shift towards a more balanced market, with increased seller confidence [21][23]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2024 is anticipated to be a market low point, while 2025 may mark the beginning of a recovery, particularly in first-tier cities that are receiving targeted policy support [25][27]. - The recovery in first-tier cities is expected to have a cascading effect on second and third-tier cities, potentially leading to a nationwide market reversal [27][29]. - Despite the supportive policies, there are concerns about the overall demand for housing due to rising debt levels and declining marriage rates, which may limit the buying enthusiasm seen in previous years [33][35].