本文字数：1104，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 传统楼市"金九"时节，房企卖房"战绩"如何？ 中指研究院最新数据显示，2025年1～9月，百强房企销售总额为26065.9亿元，同比下降12.2%， 降幅较1～8月收窄1.1个百分点。但9月单月，百强房企销售总额环比增长11.9%，"金九"实现销售 微幅回升。 从房企排名看，保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口稳居前五，前9月全口径销售 额分别为2017亿元、1785亿元、1705亿元、1544亿元、1406亿元。万科前九月也位居千亿阵 营，全口径销售额1002亿元。 销售前十房企中，还依次有建发房产、中国金茂、越秀地产、滨江集团，期内销售金额分别为955.7 亿元、806.8亿元、800亿元、786.3亿元。华发股份、中国铁建、龙湖集团销售超五百亿，分别为 633亿元、522.8亿元、507.5亿元。 2025.09. 30 中指方面表示，9月核心城市继续优化需求端政策，从市场表现来看，除核心城市市场有所修复外， 多数城市楼市表现相对平淡，市场仍面临一定调整压力。 该机构认为，短期来看，后续政策将维持宽松基调，预计会聚焦"止跌回 ...

那么，为什么此次调整对深圳购房者尤为重要？过去，深圳的二套房贷利率普遍比首套高出 0.6% - 1.2%，这意味着同样贷款 100 万，二套房购房者的月 供可能比首套房高出数百元，长期下来利息支出差距巨大。而此次调整后，二套房利率与首套房的差距缩小，购房者的还款压力将明显减轻，尤其是改善 型需求的家庭，换房的门槛进一步降低。 | 深圳最新首付及房贷利率表 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乐有家2025年9月13日整理 | | | | | | | | בה | 首套最低首付 | 利率 | 二套最低首付 | 利率 | 仔量自身利率 | 存量二套利率 | | 商业贷款 | 15% | LPR-45BP | 20% | LPR-45BP | LPR-30BP | LPR-14BP | | (3.05%) | | (3.05%) | | | (3.2%) | (3.36%) | | 公积金贷款 | 20% | 2.60% | 20% | 3.075% | | | | 注: | | | | | | | | 1、以上均为5年期及以上利率 ...

经过8月传统楼市淡季，上海各家开发商9月开始集中推盘，市场供应量明显抬升。 9月6日，上海网上房地产官网公示了最新一批楼盘过会名单，共计11个楼盘、1099套房源，其中9个楼盘位于外环以外区域。 "8·25新政"落地实施后，上海外环以外的区域不再限购住房套数，且公积金新政可提取支付新房首付款，刺激购房需求，部分楼盘开始抓住窗口期，将前期 价格较低的房源入市销售。 注：8月25日，上海发布楼市新政，涉及住房限购、公积金、住房信贷、住房税收等方面，其中最受关注的是，符合上海购房条件的居民家庭，在外环线以 外区域购买新建商品住房或二手住房，不再限制套数。 内环豪宅市场则依旧表现坚挺，黄浦区金陵华庭公布最新一批房源的备案价，单价最高达到32.68万元/㎡，刷新上海新房备案单价纪录。 某央企上海公司内部人士在现场向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，楼市政策利好看房量增加，预计9月上海豪宅成交量环比提升20%~30%。 "大部分人力和物料都扑在这个项目上" 根据上海网上房地产官网，9月首批领取预售许可证的商品房项目，总供应面积达13.9万平方米，总货值约83.1亿元，覆盖上海多个热点板块。 9月8日一早，奉贤本地国企奉发集团就对 ...

Group 1 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has seen an increase in available listings, with a total of 75,169 effective second-hand housing units for sale as of July 7, marking a week-on-week increase of 1,311 units, reaching a new high [1] - The transaction volume for second-hand homes recorded 1,436 units last week, representing a week-on-week growth of 4.2%, indicating a sustained high level of market activity [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes has decreased to 54,600 yuan per square meter, reflecting a market trend of "trading price for volume" [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the demand for larger residential units has increased, with 42.6% of second-hand home transactions being for units larger than 90 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2] - The financial policies in Shenzhen have been favorable, with reductions in public housing loan rates and an increase in loan limits, contributing to a more active market [2] - The overall market activity is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to a combination of favorable policies and the traditional peak sales season [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with overall transaction performance exceeding the same period last year [1] - As of June 25, 2025, approximately 64,000 new and second-hand homes were sold in Shenzhen, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.6%, with residential transactions nearing 50,000 units, up 38.3% year-on-year [1] - The inventory of new residential properties available for sale in Shenzhen is 25,731 units, with a depletion cycle reduced to 7.4 months, the lowest in nearly four years, primarily due to a significant decrease in new supply [1] Group 2 - In the second-hand housing market, properties priced below 40,000 yuan per square meter accounted for 40.8% of transactions, an increase of 9% year-on-year, while properties priced below 3 million yuan made up 41.5% of transactions, up 6.1% year-on-year [2] - The bargaining rate in the second-hand housing market reached 7.6%, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020, reflecting a 0.9% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Analysts suggest that the trading sentiment in the second-hand market is facing challenges, as buyers are more selective and cautious, seeking the best value properties [2]

Core Insights - The core cities' new home sales in June may receive some support due to various market factors [1] Market Performance - In May, the land market in core cities remained relatively active, although there was a marginal weakening, with the land transfer fees in 300 cities showing a narrowing year-on-year increase [1] - High premiums continued for quality land parcels in cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1] Economic Indicators - The recent reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates has injected confidence into the market [1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, many regions continued previous promotional activities, but the overall market performance remained subdued [1] Consumer Sentiment - Weak expectations regarding employment and income among residents are currently the primary constraints on the release of housing demand [1] Policy Outlook - The housing market policies in June are expected to maintain a loose tone, focusing on the implementation of special bond storage and urban village renovation policies [1] Sales Dynamics - As the mid-year sales period approaches, real estate companies are likely to increase their launch pace and promotional efforts, alongside the introduction of "good housing" products [1] - Despite potential support for new home sales in core cities, there will still be a continuation of differentiated market conditions between cities and among new and old projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant downturn, exacerbated by economic challenges post-pandemic, despite government efforts to implement supportive policies [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The government has introduced substantial policy changes aimed at reducing the barriers to home buying, with the down payment for first-time homebuyers lowered to 15% and for second homes to 25% [5][6]. - Loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers have dropped significantly, with many cities now offering rates as low as 3.2% to 3.5%, compared to over 5% two years ago [6][9]. - Various local governments are providing direct financial incentives, such as cash subsidies for families with multiple children, with some offering up to 120,000 yuan [8][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has seen a drastic price decline, with some properties being sold at discounts of 40% or more, particularly in previously high-demand areas [17][21]. - However, there are signs of stabilization, with certain cities like Chengdu showing early signs of price recovery, indicating that the market may have reached its bottom [19][25]. - The trend of rising prices is not merely speculative; actual sales data and transaction prices reflect a shift towards a more balanced market, with increased seller confidence [21][23]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2024 is anticipated to be a market low point, while 2025 may mark the beginning of a recovery, particularly in first-tier cities that are receiving targeted policy support [25][27]. - The recovery in first-tier cities is expected to have a cascading effect on second and third-tier cities, potentially leading to a nationwide market reversal [27][29]. - Despite the supportive policies, there are concerns about the overall demand for housing due to rising debt levels and declining marriage rates, which may limit the buying enthusiasm seen in previous years [33][35].