Group 1 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has seen an increase in available listings, with a total of 75,169 effective second-hand housing units for sale as of July 7, marking a week-on-week increase of 1,311 units, reaching a new high [1] - The transaction volume for second-hand homes recorded 1,436 units last week, representing a week-on-week growth of 4.2%, indicating a sustained high level of market activity [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes has decreased to 54,600 yuan per square meter, reflecting a market trend of "trading price for volume" [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the demand for larger residential units has increased, with 42.6% of second-hand home transactions being for units larger than 90 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2] - The financial policies in Shenzhen have been favorable, with reductions in public housing loan rates and an increase in loan limits, contributing to a more active market [2] - The overall market activity is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to a combination of favorable policies and the traditional peak sales season [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with overall transaction performance exceeding the same period last year [1] - As of June 25, 2025, approximately 64,000 new and second-hand homes were sold in Shenzhen, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.6%, with residential transactions nearing 50,000 units, up 38.3% year-on-year [1] - The inventory of new residential properties available for sale in Shenzhen is 25,731 units, with a depletion cycle reduced to 7.4 months, the lowest in nearly four years, primarily due to a significant decrease in new supply [1] Group 2 - In the second-hand housing market, properties priced below 40,000 yuan per square meter accounted for 40.8% of transactions, an increase of 9% year-on-year, while properties priced below 3 million yuan made up 41.5% of transactions, up 6.1% year-on-year [2] - The bargaining rate in the second-hand housing market reached 7.6%, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020, reflecting a 0.9% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Analysts suggest that the trading sentiment in the second-hand market is facing challenges, as buyers are more selective and cautious, seeking the best value properties [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant downturn, exacerbated by economic challenges post-pandemic, despite government efforts to implement supportive policies [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The government has introduced substantial policy changes aimed at reducing the barriers to home buying, with the down payment for first-time homebuyers lowered to 15% and for second homes to 25% [5][6]. - Loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers have dropped significantly, with many cities now offering rates as low as 3.2% to 3.5%, compared to over 5% two years ago [6][9]. - Various local governments are providing direct financial incentives, such as cash subsidies for families with multiple children, with some offering up to 120,000 yuan [8][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has seen a drastic price decline, with some properties being sold at discounts of 40% or more, particularly in previously high-demand areas [17][21]. - However, there are signs of stabilization, with certain cities like Chengdu showing early signs of price recovery, indicating that the market may have reached its bottom [19][25]. - The trend of rising prices is not merely speculative; actual sales data and transaction prices reflect a shift towards a more balanced market, with increased seller confidence [21][23]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2024 is anticipated to be a market low point, while 2025 may mark the beginning of a recovery, particularly in first-tier cities that are receiving targeted policy support [25][27]. - The recovery in first-tier cities is expected to have a cascading effect on second and third-tier cities, potentially leading to a nationwide market reversal [27][29]. - Despite the supportive policies, there are concerns about the overall demand for housing due to rising debt levels and declining marriage rates, which may limit the buying enthusiasm seen in previous years [33][35].