Core Insights - Jack Ma's prediction in 2017 that housing prices would become as cheap as scallions is now seen as prescient, as housing prices have indeed begun to decline significantly since late 2021 [2][4] - The current real estate market is experiencing a downward trend, with national average housing prices dropping over 30% from their peak in 2021 [4] - The decline in housing prices is attributed to demographic changes, oversupply of housing, and a slowdown in urbanization [4] Group 1: Signals of Market Trends - Signal 1: The trend of declining housing prices is becoming increasingly clear and difficult to reverse [5] - Signal 2: The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing listings exceed 16 million and 33 million respectively, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7] - Signal 3: Public willingness to buy homes is decreasing, as evidenced by a significant drop in bank deposits, with 1.11 trillion yuan withdrawn in July 2025, and funds being redirected to other investments [9] Group 2: Changing Attitudes Towards Homeownership - Signal 4: Young people's willingness to buy homes has become more rational, with only 48% of individuals aged 25-30 expressing a desire to purchase a home, down from 65% five years ago [11] - Many young individuals prefer a "rent and invest" approach, with long-term rental agreements increasing by 25% year-on-year, reflecting a shift in housing attitudes [11][13] - The perception that housing prices are on a downward trajectory encourages young people to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a broader societal shift in housing views [13]

右耳君前几天和几个在北京工作的朋友喝茶，聊起燕郊房价的事儿。大家说起这些年的变化，感觉市场 确实不像前几年那么火热了，不过对真正需要住房的人来说，可能也有不一样的意义。 房价回归更理性的水平 燕郊的房价从早些时候的较高水平，逐渐回落到现在大约1.3万元左右。在右耳远闻看来，这对一些准 备安家的年轻人来说，意味着买房的门槛可能降低了些。就像有个朋友说的，现在考虑在燕郊置业，压 力确实比前几年小了不少。 居住环境在逐步改善 随着时间推移，燕郊的生活配套也在慢慢完善。虽然通勤高峰期进京的路还是有点堵，但右耳君听说， 周边的学校、商店这些生活设施比之前多了。对于在这里居住的人来说，日常购物、孩子上学确实方便 了一些。 房子更多回归居住属性 现在大家看待房子的角度和以前不太一样了，更多是考虑实际的居住需求。右耳君觉得，这种变化让购 房决策更加理性。毕竟房子首先是用来住的，周边配套、交通便利这些生活因素变得越来越重要。 每个地方的发展都有自己的节奏，燕郊这些年的变化也给我们提供了一些思考。你们对北京的周边楼市 有什么看法？右耳君挺想在评论区聊聊。 ...

时过境迁，当我们再次审视马云多年前"未来房价如葱"的预言，或许更能体会其深刻的含义。并非房价真的会跌至葱的价格，而是指房价终将回归理性，达 到多数民众能够负担的水平。如今，三个关键信息浮出水面，似乎正预示着这一预言正逐步成为现实。 2. 刚需购房者：前些年，在高位购房的改善型家庭，不仅面临房价下跌导致首付款缩水的问题，还需承受沉重的还贷压力。如果房价回归居住属性，他们将 面临较大的经济损失。 3. 开发商：在买涨不买跌的市场规律下，房价下跌将直接导致房屋销售困难。那些资金链薄弱的中小开发商或将面临破产倒闭的风险。预计未来房地产市场 将迎来一轮洗牌，更多房企可能面临倒闭或被收购重组的命运。 1. 炒房客：那些曾坚信房价只涨不跌，错失了抛售良机的炒房客，如今面对二手房挂牌量激增和各地放松新房限价政策的局面，手中的房产难以变现，资产 大幅缩水已成定局。 其次，我国房地产市场已呈现供过于求的态势。住建部披露的数据显示，全国拥有高达6亿栋房屋，若每栋居住10人，足以容纳60亿人口。再加上每年新增 的大量商品房，房地产市场已然进入"供大于求"的时代。与此同时，高达96%的家庭拥有一套房产，其中拥有两套及以上房产的家庭占比 ...