Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma regarding the real estate market, stating that housing prices would become as cheap as scallions, is now being validated as the market experiences significant price declines, aligning with his forecast [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the second half of 2021, the domestic real estate market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with prices in second and third-tier cities like Zhengzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing already declining [3]. - By 2023, first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have also shown noticeable price adjustments, with average housing prices dropping over 30% from their historical peaks [3]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have indeed fallen to levels comparable to Jack Ma's "scallion" prices, with properties available for just tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands [3]. Group 2: Demographic Signals - China has entered an aging society, with the number of individuals aged 60 and above surpassing 310 million by 2024, and projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, leading to a significant decrease in housing demand from younger populations [6]. - The population of young people is declining, with 175 million from the post-90s generation and 145 million from the post-00s generation, indicating that most elderly individuals already own homes and do not require new purchases [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a long-term trend of oversupply, with 600 million existing homes capable of accommodating 3 billion people, coupled with millions of new homes entering the market annually [8]. - The decline in housing prices has diminished the investment appeal, causing potential buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further exacerbating the oversupply situation [8]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The government has announced plans to provide 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually, aimed at meeting the housing needs of low-income urban residents [10]. - As affordable housing becomes more available, it is expected to significantly reduce the purchasing costs for low-income families, leading to a diversion of demand from the commercial housing market and increasing downward pressure on prices [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the realization of Jack Ma's prediction about housing prices, which he stated would decline, contrasting with the prevailing belief that prices would only rise [6][10] - The real estate market has shifted from a speculative "wealth myth" to a more rational phase characterized by deleveraging and reduced demand, leading to increased inventory and stagnant prices [8][10] - Key factors affecting the housing market include declining birth rates, an aging population, and changing societal attitudes towards homeownership, which are all contributing to a decrease in demand for housing [12][14][18] Group 2 - The article highlights the challenges faced by individuals holding cash savings, including low bank interest rates and rising living costs, which erode purchasing power due to inflation [22][24] - It discusses the emergence of new consumer traps where capital exploits consumer behavior through targeted marketing and easy payment options, leading to irrational spending and potential debt [24][26] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of investing in personal skills and capabilities as a means of financial security, rather than relying solely on traditional assets like real estate [30][31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prediction made by Jack Ma regarding the real estate market, emphasizing that by 2026, housing prices may continue to decline, reflecting a trend of "housing prices like green onions" [1][3]. Group 1: Declining Demand for Marriage Housing - Marriage housing has been a crucial driver for real estate prices, with 11.428 million couples registering for marriage in 2016, significantly boosting the market [6]. - However, the number of marriage registrations has dropped to 3.539 million in the first half of the year, indicating a decline in demand for marriage housing [8]. - Experts predict that the number of marriage registrations may fall below 6 million by 2026, further weakening the housing market [10]. Group 2: Population Decline - China has experienced three consecutive years of population decline, which is a major macroeconomic factor contributing to the current real estate downturn [12]. - The trend of population decline is expected to continue until at least 2090, leading to an oversupply in the housing market [12]. - The aging population and gender imbalance among the marriageable demographic exacerbate the issue, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above [14]. Group 3: Shift to "Housing for Living, Not Speculating" - The public has adapted to the new market reality of "housing for living, not speculating," reducing the appeal of real estate as an investment compared to stocks and gold [17]. - The average listing period for second-hand homes has exceeded 110 days, making quick sales increasingly difficult [19]. - The stock market has seen a surge in interest, with the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, drawing investors away from real estate [21]. Group 4: Rise of Affordable Housing - The government is now promoting a dual approach of developing both commercial and affordable housing to meet residential needs [23]. - Many cities are integrating affordable housing development with real estate inventory reduction strategies, directly purchasing unsold properties from developers [25]. - Affordable housing is becoming a key strategy in urban areas to attract residents, alleviating the burden of high housing prices for ordinary workers [25]. Conclusion - The era of "housing prices like green onions" has arrived, and the focus should shift to the residential attributes of housing rather than speculative investments [27].

Core Insights - Jack Ma's prediction about future housing prices being as low as "scallions" has proven to be accurate as the real estate market has entered a downward trend since the second half of 2021 [1][3] Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The domestic housing market has been in a decline since the second half of 2021, with cities like Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang experiencing price drops first, followed by major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - By July, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 0.77% month-on-month and 7.32% year-on-year, indicating a continuous expansion of the decline [3] - The average national housing price has dropped over 30% from its historical peak in 2021, with specific examples like a property in Shanghai that decreased from 4 million to 2.56 million [5] Group 2: Market Signals - There has been a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale, with Beijing reaching 163,300 listings, Shanghai surpassing 330,000, and other cities like Wuhan and Chongqing also showing high numbers [7] - The willingness of the general public to buy homes is decreasing, as evidenced by a reduction in bank deposits by 1.11 trillion yuan in July 2025, with funds being redirected to stock markets and other investments rather than real estate [9] - Among the 25-30 age group, the willingness to purchase homes has dropped to 48%, down from 65% in 2020, with many young people opting for a "rent and invest" strategy instead [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "split" scenario, with significant disparities between different cities and property types, leading to a fundamental shift in market dynamics and perceptions of property value [5][11][36]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while new residential sales fell by 6.5% [5]. - In lower-tier cities, property prices have plummeted, with homes that once sold for 500,000 yuan now listed at 150,000 yuan, reflecting a drastic decline in demand [7]. - In contrast, luxury properties in first-tier cities continue to see high demand, with some units priced at nearly 200,000 yuan per square meter selling out quickly [11][36]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - Since 2022, China's population has entered a phase of negative growth, resulting in fewer potential homebuyers, particularly among the younger generation [16]. - The number of individuals in the primary home-buying demographic (those born in the 2000s) is 47 million less than those born in the 1990s, altering the supply-demand balance [16][20]. - The traditional belief in the necessity of "school district housing" is being challenged as families reassess the value of high mortgage payments for educational purposes [20][23]. Group 3: Policy Responses - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market rather than simply driving prices up, with measures aimed at both "bottoming out" and guiding the market [25][28]. - The "shelter reform 2.0" initiative is expanding from major cities to nearly 300 cities, aiming to alleviate inventory issues in lower-tier markets through financial compensation and housing vouchers [30][32]. - Consumer rights protections are being enhanced, including trials to eliminate "shared area" calculations in property sales, which is expected to boost buyer confidence [32]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The prediction that "housing prices will be like scallions" suggests a return to real estate as a basic necessity rather than a speculative asset, with a focus on living quality rather than investment [34][36]. - Industry leaders believe that the era of rising property prices is over, and the new norm will be that "housing does not equal wealth" [38]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be a critical turning point for the Chinese real estate market, transitioning towards a more rational and human-centered approach [40][41].