1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is short - term shock [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. Although anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved. After entering February and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream demand is expected to weaken further. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and cold - repair of production lines [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main glass contract opened lower today and fluctuated during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short - term shock signal. The pressure during the session continued to focus on the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support focused on the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 77,681 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 72,809 lots. The intraday high was 1087, the low was 1046, and the closing price was 1056, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.4% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the shipment was okay, the price was stable, and the focus was on order closing and pre - holiday collection; in East China, the trading was weakening, and enterprises mainly kept prices stable; in Central China, the market was running stably, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises slowed down; in South China, some downstream enterprises stocked up appropriately according to orders and storage capacity, but most still focused on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 36 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% from the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, unchanged from the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure was not significantly relieved [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% from the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand of most enterprises gradually entered the final stage from north to south [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - world demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. The real - estate demand has not improved. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening later and changes in macro - policies and cold - repair of production lines [4]