来源：中国能源网 以华北市场为例，2025年华北LLDPE主流6100-9000元/吨，低点出现在12月23日，高点在1月1日，华北 LDPE普通膜料主流7800-10550元/吨，低点出现在12月26日，高点在1月1日，HDPE以低熔指注塑为 例，全年价格6550-7950元/吨，低点出现在12月24日，高点在6月末。 2025年国内PE市场持续下行，连刷新低点，其中LLDPE跌幅最大，年终较年初价格跌29.76%，其次是 LDPE，年终较年初跌22.35%，HDPE跌幅相对较小，年终较年初跌13.45%，聚乙烯综合跌幅20.28%。 期间"高供应、弱需求、高库存"矛盾深刻，市场信心严重缺失，LLDPE期货持续疲软，现货市场全年成 交低迷，导致国内上游生产企业纷纷降价促进成交，以期稳定市场份额，减缓资金压力。2025年中美贸 易关系恶化导致需求雪上加霜，全年需求低迷，参与操守以规避风险为主。市场可分为两个阶段，一， 上半年行情下行但伴随小幅反弹。上半年国内PE产能继续扩张，加上2024年四季度扩张产能产量不断 释放，同时受中美贸易摩擦等因素影响，需求提升远不及预期，市场在供需矛盾加大下持续下行。5月 12日 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 成本：12 月 17 日布油主力收盘 55.1 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.9 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5285 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季承压震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.37%，报 6404 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.96%，报 5388 元/吨。 （2）观点 纯苯：短期来看，国内纯苯到港高峰阶段性结束，港口库存增速明显放 缓，但库存 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 过剩局面不改，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-15日沪镍主力合约2601开于115070元/吨，收于114690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.88%，当日成交量 为129996（+29560）手，持仓量为105210（252）手。价格走势延续近期弱势，呈现 \"冲高回落、震荡下行\" 走势， 核心受供需过剩、高库存及技术破位三重压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面矿山多履行前期订单出货为主， 矿山延续挺价心态。游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面， 12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 整体镍矿内贸价格预计仍将有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌精炼 镍现货升贴水多持稳。其中金川镍升水变化100元/吨至5300元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元 ...

Core Viewpoints - The PMI for November shows limited recovery, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of holidays [2][4][88] - In the manufacturing sector, the PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, reflecting weak overall performance despite a low base [2][10][44] - The production index remains weak, with only a minor increase to the threshold line of 50%, indicating ongoing production challenges [2][10][19] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, with production and new orders indices showing slight improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [5][44][89] - High inventory levels from previous months continue to constrain current production, with the finished goods inventory index decreasing to 47.3% [2][19][87] - Key industries such as high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods have seen their PMIs fall into contraction territory, while energy-intensive industries have shown some improvement [3][22][88] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, primarily due to a high base from the previous month and the impact of holiday effects [3][36][59] - Service industries, including retail and hospitality, experienced declines in their PMIs, while sectors like telecommunications and financial services remained in a high growth zone [3][36][88] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 49.6%, with significant increases in new orders and employment indices, indicating a potential recovery in this area [30][36][76] Economic Outlook - The short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and with supportive fiscal policies being implemented, economic growth is anticipated to remain resilient [4][42][88] - The easing of debt-related investment constraints is reflected in the improvements seen in energy-intensive and construction sectors [4][42][88] - Overall, the combination of external demand stability and the rollout of fiscal measures is projected to support economic resilience through the end of the year [4][42][88]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - November Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October's 49%[2] - Production index rose marginally by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, indicating weak production performance[8] - New orders index improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, slightly better than the same period last year[2] Inventory and Production Constraints - High inventory levels from previous months continue to constrain current production, with finished goods inventory index at 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points[3] - The purchasing quantity index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but this increase is weaker compared to the previous month's decline of 2.6 percentage points[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors dropped into contraction territory at 49.8% and 49.4% respectively[3] - High-energy consumption industries saw a PMI increase of 1.1 percentage points to 48.4%, reflecting some improvement in investment dynamics[3] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering contraction territory primarily due to high base effects and holiday impact[4] - Service sector indices for shopping, accommodation, transportation, and tourism all showed declines, with real estate and residential services below critical levels[4] Economic Outlook - Despite short-term disruptions from high inventory, the economy is expected to maintain resilience due to supportive fiscal policies and sustained external demand[4] - The construction sector's PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, indicating potential for continued improvement in business activity[22]

浮法玻璃周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 浮法玻璃行情分析 ➢ 现货概况：本周浮法玻璃现货价格持续阴跌，区域分化明显。截至2025年11月20日，全国5mm浮法玻璃均价为1,106元/吨，周内下跌45元/吨，跌幅约3.9%。 沙河、湖北等主要产区价格走弱，产销率偏低，部分企业为去库采取"以价换量"策略。期货价格维持下跌趋势，主力合约逼近历史低位，市场情绪偏弱。供需基 本面承压，库存高位运行，行业利润持续收窄。本周玻璃期货总成交量显著放大，11月20日单日成交量达192.29万手，为近期峰值，显示市场交投活跃但方向 分歧加剧。持仓量维持高位，截至11月21日为194.37万手，反映空头力量持续积累。 ➢ 供给端：周内本溪一600吨/日产线冷修，国内在产日产量降至15.81万吨。此为本周唯一明确的产能退出，但整体供给仍处高位，未形成系统性减产。全国 周度产量111.02万吨，环比-0.34%，同比+0.08%。 ➢ 需求端：需求偏弱难改，截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大 ...

消息面 近期矿价上涨，市场心态有所好转，但在高库存、低利润、强供应预期的三重压制下，铁矿石价格仍将 承压。建议个人投资者不追高，前期空单继续持有，可将98-100美元作为第一下行目标；现货企业继续 采取低库存策略和按需补库模式。 国投安信期货： 供应端，全球发运偏强，四季度发运量预计维持高位，国内到港量阶段回落，港口库存保持累库趋势， 短期存在一定结构性扰动。需求端，钢材表需环比有所反弹，但目前进入淡季并且钢厂盈利情况较差， 铁水本周小幅减产，仍然处于季节性减产趋势中，减产速度有所放缓，短期关注宏观层面是否会有利好 政策出台。铁矿石基本面边际转宽松，我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量15054.65万吨，环比下降75.06万吨；日均疏港量329.92万吨，增2.97万 吨；在港船舶数量120条，增4条。 11月21日当周，铁矿石港口库存录得15734.85万吨，较上一周减少77.99万吨，减少幅度达0.49%；最近 一个月，铁矿石港口库存累计增加625.36万吨，增加幅度为4.14%。 机构观点 国都期货： 11月20日：全国主港铁矿石成交91.8万吨，环比上涨27.32%；远期现货成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weak PMI in October is primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels negatively impacting production indices [2][68]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][68]. - The production index dropped significantly, falling to 49.7%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to the contraction zone for the first time in six months [2][9]. - New orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating that while demand is weakening, it is not as severe as the production index [2][9]. Group 2: Causes of Weakness - The significant drop in the production index may be attributed to the retreat of the "rush production" effect, high inventory levels, and the nature of the PMI as a month-on-month indicator [2][14]. - In September, there was a temporary "stock-up rush" phenomenon, which led to a spike in production and inventory levels, but this created constraints for October's production capacity [14][68]. - The new export orders index fell sharply by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point of the year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies [3][69]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains resilient overall, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries and construction [3][23]. - The PMI for high-energy industries dropped to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction efforts [3][23]. - The construction PMI also remains low, falling to 49.1%, but recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising by 3.6 percentage points [3][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent setbacks in manufacturing sentiment, the short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and proactive fiscal policies are being implemented [4][35]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience as external uncertainties ease and new policies are rolled out to support production and demand [4][35]. - Continuous monitoring of the marginal changes in manufacturing sentiment will be essential as the situation evolves [4][70]. Group 5: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 50.1%, indicating some recovery in the service sector, driven by holiday travel and pre-sales activities [5][51]. - The service sector PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points, with the employment index also improving, suggesting a positive trend in service-related employment [5][55]. - In contrast, the construction sector experienced a slight decline in PMI, although the new orders index saw a significant rebound, increasing by 3.7 percentage points [6][60].

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, which are influenced by trade policies and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2366.00 CNY/ton and experienced a decline, with a maximum of 2376.00 CNY and a minimum of 2308.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.24% [1]. - As of October 16, the average spot price for canola meal was reported at 2533.68 CNY/ton, which is 169.68 CNY/ton higher than the futures price [1]. Group 2: Export and Inventory Data - According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola seed exports increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons for the week ending October 12, compared to 80,500 tons the previous week [1]. - On October 16, the number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts was 8,699, a decrease of 390 from the previous trading day [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures indicates that trade policies and high inventory levels are creating mixed factors for canola meal, suggesting a range-bound market [2]. - Ruida Futures notes that the lack of substantial progress in China-Canada trade negotiations will limit canola seed imports in Q4, while the demand for canola meal may decline due to reduced aquaculture needs and the availability of soybean meal as a substitute [2].