投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 10月9日 | 9月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7077 | 7153 | -76 | -1.06% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7158 | 7220 | -62 | -0.86% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6745 | 6852 | -107 | -1.56% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6807 | 6880 | -73 | -1.06% | | | L2509-2601 | 81 | 67 | 14 | 20.90% | | | PP2509-2601 | 62 | 28 | 34 | 121.43% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6680 | 6750 | -70 | -1.04% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7030 | 7100 | -70 | -0.99% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -50 | -50 | ...

张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2328 | 6567 | -31.00 | -1.31% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2362 | 2388 | -26.00 | -1.09% | | | MA15价差 | -34 | -29 | -5.00 | 17.24% | | | 太仓基差 | -125 | -138 | 13.50 | -9.78% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2090 | 2090 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2250 | 2250 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2238 | 2250 | -12.50 | -0.56% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 148 | 160 | -12.50 | -7.81% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | -13 | 0 | -12.50 | #DIV/0! | | | ...

供应方面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失 量，整体产量小幅增加，下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，或将使得国内甲醇装置 产能利用率继续提升，产量增加。 9月26日夜盘，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，主力合约报收于2364.00 元/吨，小幅上涨0.51%。 库存方面，截至9月25日，华东港口甲醇库存为82.40万吨，上周同期为85.18万吨，环比减少2.78万吨。 展望后市，东海期货表示，短期内的国产和进口小幅下降以及港口MTO重启使得库存没有继续上行， 港口持续的走弱导致价格承压与附近内地套利窗口部分开启。虽然能缓解一些压力，但短期内无法改变 供应过剩的格局，高库存仍然压制价格。中长期来看，伊朗装置上周故障检修引发提前限气猜想，10月 进口或成为甲醇供需转变关键。中长期等待布局多单机会。 需求端，五矿期货分析称，港口烯烃装置重启且负荷提升，开工回到高位，传统需求多数开工回升，但 利润依旧偏低。整体需求边际有所好转。 ...

高库存，高产量，纸价走势乏力 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格：双胶纸产量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。② 供应端：双胶纸产 量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，部分 新增装置生产趋稳，行业货源供应有所增量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期。③针叶浆现货含税均价 5694元/吨，环比上期下降0.3 %；阔叶浆现货含税均价4189元/吨，环比上期持平。 【逻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. In the absence of a clear recession forecast in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under the loose background. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The short - term aluminum price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If the subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, the aluminum price still faces the risk of falling after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term suppression of base metal prices by the Fed's interest rate cut is expected. The cost of scrap aluminum provides strong support for prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is difficult to open. Short - term prices may be boosted by macro factors, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. It is expected that the tin price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [9]. Nickel - The macro environment is improving, but the industrial fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, and the cost support is strengthening, but the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply side has increased news disturbances, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 [14][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,600 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous value. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous value [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,160 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous value. The import loss was 3,610 yuan/ton, down 315.79 yuan/ton from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin was 272,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous value. The import loss was 14,781.16 yuan/ton, down 3.90% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,181 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value. The spot - futures spread was 385 yuan/ton, down 3.75% from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.834% month - on - month; the import volume was 73,000 tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous value. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread was - 120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [14].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has been experiencing a downward trend since August, with the main contract dropping over 5% and reaching a two-month low due to weak fundamentals and high supply pressure [1][4]. Supply Analysis - Domestic methanol production remains high, with operating rates at 83%-85% and daily output at 270,000 tons. The recovery of previously shut-down facilities is expected to further increase production [1]. - Iran's methanol shipments are projected to exceed 1 million tons in August, contributing to a potential record high in monthly imports to China [1]. - High upstream production profits and capacity utilization rates indicate that the supply surplus is unlikely to change in the near term [1]. Demand Analysis - Core downstream sectors are facing significant losses, with MTO facilities in East China reporting a loss of 789 yuan per ton, which is suppressing operational and purchasing willingness [1]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are in a consumption lull, leading to low overall operating rates [1]. - There is a notable divergence in profits between upstream and downstream sectors, with high upstream profits not being effectively transmitted to the downstream due to strong resistance to high raw material prices [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 27, methanol port inventory in China reached 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons, nearing historical highs. The sellable inventory also hit a record high of 670,000 tons, putting downward pressure on spot prices [2]. - The current market shows a "two-tier" inventory situation, with high port inventories and low inland inventories. Inland methanol inventories are approximately 200,000 tons, significantly lower than the average for the same period in previous years [4]. Price Dynamics - Weak cost support from domestic coal prices and declining international natural gas prices are contributing to the downward pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The market is expected to remain bearish in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with limited potential for price rebounds until inventory levels are effectively reduced [4]. Future Outlook - The high inventory situation at ports is likely to persist, but the potential for further significant increases in inventory is low. Supply is expected to gradually decrease as autumn maintenance approaches [5]. - Two potential positive factors for the market include the upcoming "golden September and silver October" demand season and expectations of reduced methanol supply from countries like Iran due to natural gas production limits [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group's stock price fell by 5%, reaching a two-month intraday low before narrowing the decline [1] - Jefferies reported that weak smartphone demand and high inventory may pressure the company's Q2 performance, slightly lowering the target price to HKD 69.85 [3] - The average selling price growth of Xiaomi's flagship smartphones in China significantly slowed down in Q2 compared to Q1, according to Jefferies' tracking data [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].