浮法玻璃周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 浮法玻璃行情分析 ➢ 现货概况：本周浮法玻璃现货价格持续阴跌，区域分化明显。截至2025年11月20日，全国5mm浮法玻璃均价为1,106元/吨，周内下跌45元/吨，跌幅约3.9%。 沙河、湖北等主要产区价格走弱，产销率偏低，部分企业为去库采取"以价换量"策略。期货价格维持下跌趋势，主力合约逼近历史低位，市场情绪偏弱。供需基 本面承压，库存高位运行，行业利润持续收窄。本周玻璃期货总成交量显著放大，11月20日单日成交量达192.29万手，为近期峰值，显示市场交投活跃但方向 分歧加剧。持仓量维持高位，截至11月21日为194.37万手，反映空头力量持续积累。 ➢ 供给端：周内本溪一600吨/日产线冷修，国内在产日产量降至15.81万吨。此为本周唯一明确的产能退出，但整体供给仍处高位，未形成系统性减产。全国 周度产量111.02万吨，环比-0.34%，同比+0.08%。 ➢ 需求端：需求偏弱难改，截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大 ...

消息面 近期矿价上涨，市场心态有所好转，但在高库存、低利润、强供应预期的三重压制下，铁矿石价格仍将 承压。建议个人投资者不追高，前期空单继续持有，可将98-100美元作为第一下行目标；现货企业继续 采取低库存策略和按需补库模式。 国投安信期货： 供应端，全球发运偏强，四季度发运量预计维持高位，国内到港量阶段回落，港口库存保持累库趋势， 短期存在一定结构性扰动。需求端，钢材表需环比有所反弹，但目前进入淡季并且钢厂盈利情况较差， 铁水本周小幅减产，仍然处于季节性减产趋势中，减产速度有所放缓，短期关注宏观层面是否会有利好 政策出台。铁矿石基本面边际转宽松，我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量15054.65万吨，环比下降75.06万吨；日均疏港量329.92万吨，增2.97万 吨；在港船舶数量120条，增4条。 11月21日当周，铁矿石港口库存录得15734.85万吨，较上一周减少77.99万吨，减少幅度达0.49%；最近 一个月，铁矿石港口库存累计增加625.36万吨，增加幅度为4.14%。 机构观点 国都期货： 11月20日：全国主港铁矿石成交91.8万吨，环比上涨27.32%；远期现货成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weak PMI in October is primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels negatively impacting production indices [2][68]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][68]. - The production index dropped significantly, falling to 49.7%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to the contraction zone for the first time in six months [2][9]. - New orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating that while demand is weakening, it is not as severe as the production index [2][9]. Group 2: Causes of Weakness - The significant drop in the production index may be attributed to the retreat of the "rush production" effect, high inventory levels, and the nature of the PMI as a month-on-month indicator [2][14]. - In September, there was a temporary "stock-up rush" phenomenon, which led to a spike in production and inventory levels, but this created constraints for October's production capacity [14][68]. - The new export orders index fell sharply by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point of the year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies [3][69]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains resilient overall, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries and construction [3][23]. - The PMI for high-energy industries dropped to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction efforts [3][23]. - The construction PMI also remains low, falling to 49.1%, but recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising by 3.6 percentage points [3][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent setbacks in manufacturing sentiment, the short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and proactive fiscal policies are being implemented [4][35]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience as external uncertainties ease and new policies are rolled out to support production and demand [4][35]. - Continuous monitoring of the marginal changes in manufacturing sentiment will be essential as the situation evolves [4][70]. Group 5: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 50.1%, indicating some recovery in the service sector, driven by holiday travel and pre-sales activities [5][51]. - The service sector PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points, with the employment index also improving, suggesting a positive trend in service-related employment [5][55]. - In contrast, the construction sector experienced a slight decline in PMI, although the new orders index saw a significant rebound, increasing by 3.7 percentage points [6][60].

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, which are influenced by trade policies and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2366.00 CNY/ton and experienced a decline, with a maximum of 2376.00 CNY and a minimum of 2308.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.24% [1]. - As of October 16, the average spot price for canola meal was reported at 2533.68 CNY/ton, which is 169.68 CNY/ton higher than the futures price [1]. Group 2: Export and Inventory Data - According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola seed exports increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons for the week ending October 12, compared to 80,500 tons the previous week [1]. - On October 16, the number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts was 8,699, a decrease of 390 from the previous trading day [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures indicates that trade policies and high inventory levels are creating mixed factors for canola meal, suggesting a range-bound market [2]. - Ruida Futures notes that the lack of substantial progress in China-Canada trade negotiations will limit canola seed imports in Q4, while the demand for canola meal may decline due to reduced aquaculture needs and the availability of soybean meal as a substitute [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in prices, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a potential for increased production and marginally improved demand [1] Supply - Recent recovery in domestic methanol production capacity exceeds the impact of maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight overall increase in output [1] - Planned maintenance and production cuts next week will involve less capacity than the planned recovery, suggesting continued improvement in capacity utilization [1] Demand - The restart and increased load of port olefin facilities have returned operations to high levels, with traditional demand also showing signs of recovery, although profit margins remain low [1] Inventory - As of September 25, methanol inventory at East China ports stood at 824,000 tons, down from 851,800 tons the previous week, reflecting a decrease of 27,800 tons [1] Market Outlook - Short-term domestic and import declines, along with the restart of port MTO, have prevented further inventory increases, but high inventory levels continue to suppress prices [1] - The recent maintenance issues at Iranian facilities have raised speculation about gas supply limits, making October a critical month for methanol supply-demand dynamics [1] - There is a potential opportunity for long positions in the medium to long term as the market adjusts [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of double - offset paper and coated paper remains unbalanced with high inventory and low demand, and the paper price trend is weak. The double - offset paper industry may see a limited increase in supply, while the demand is mainly rigid. The cost support is limited as pulp prices are stable. For trading, a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 01 contract, and paper mills can focus on risk - free arbitrage opportunities [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - Double - offset paper: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. The industry's supply has increased due to the resumption of some production and the stabilization of new units. However, the demand is weak as publishing tender orders are limited. The average spot tax - included price of softwood pulp is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period, and that of hardwood pulp is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short sell at high prices for the 01 contract as the supply exceeds demand. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines mainly, and paper mill industrial customers can pay attention to risk - free arbitrage opportunities. For options, stay on the sidelines [8] II. Core Logic Analysis - Supply: Previously shut - down enterprises are gradually resuming production, but the industry's profitability is under pressure, so the increase in double - offset paper supply is expected to be limited. - Demand: Distributors are cautious in stockpiling, and downstream printing factories' orders are average, with overall demand being rigid. - Cost: The prices of softwood and hardwood pulp are stable, providing limited cost support [7] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Double - Offset Paper - Supply: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. Some shut - down units have resumed production, and large factories are stably producing. However, due to low profitability, some paper machines are being converted or cross - scheduled. The gross profit margin is declining as paper prices fall and pulp prices fluctuate slightly [16] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 121.0 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. Factory production has increased slightly, while downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a multi - year high [20] - Price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is 4742.9 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [37] B. Coated Paper - Supply: The production is 7.80 tons, a 0.51% decrease from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.6%, down 0.3%. The shut - down factories have not fully resumed production, and the overall capacity utilization rate is still low. The gross profit margin remains low as pulp prices fluctuate slightly [23] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 33.2 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. The industry's supply has not changed much, and downstream consumption is weak. The inventory has rebounded slightly [27] - Price: The average enterprise price of 157g coated paper is 5175.0 yuan/ton, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [37] C. Pulp Prices - Softwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period - Hardwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Natural pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Chemimechanical pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [42]