【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：日内短线走强 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，压力继续看日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较昨日减 36.1 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36536 手；日内最高 1055，最低 1027，收盘 1054， （较昨日结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.67%。 目前国内深加工企业多数仍在停工状态，华北、东北地区下游加工企业多尚 未开工，大多将于正月十五后开工，但部分出口订单企业受退税政策影响，仍赶 单为主；华中、西南区域今年下游加工厂节后整体开工普遍偏晚，大部分开工时 间集中在正月十六-正月二十开工，小部分企业在正月初八到正月初十开工，目 前多数企业接单情况不佳；华东地区多数下游加工厂多集中在元宵节之后，而仅 有少部分因部分出口订单受退税政策影响，赶工为主；华南区域下游深加工除部 分月底开工外，多数集中在正月十五后开工，年后原片企业提涨下，少数加工厂 适当采买。。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短线震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭，短 期震荡信号，压力继续关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线附近。 成交量较昨日减 11.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 5898 手；日内最高 1064，最低 1044， 收盘 1062，（较昨日结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.66%。 虽假期结束，但国内深加工企业多数仍在停工状态，华北、东北地区下游加 工企业多尚未开工，大多将于正月十五后开工，但部分出口订单企业受退税政策 影响，仍赶单为主；华中、西南区域今年下游加工厂节后整体开工普遍偏晚，大 部分开工时间集中在正月十六-正月二十开工，小部分企业在正月初八到正月初 十开工，目前多数企业接单情况不佳；华东地区多数下游加工厂多集中在元宵节 之后，而仅有少部分因部分出口订单受退税政策影响，赶工为主；华南区域下游 深加工除部分月底开工外，多数集中在正月十五后开工，年后原片企业提涨下， 少数加工厂适当采买。。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短 期震荡，压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量昨日增 38.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 32787 手；日内最高 1073，最低 1049，收盘 1064，（较 昨日结算价）涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.53%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。节前部分产线冷修，产能收 缩，供需格局略有改善。而随着 3 月重要会议临近，关注市场对宏观预期以及北 方主产地环保的影响。但往上空间若想打开仍需房产企稳。短期而言，预计维持 震荡运行。关注后期房产政策以及主产地产线检修情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯碱：主力合约今日高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨线附近，支撑关注日 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力高开震荡，收十字星。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭，短期震 荡偏弱，压力关注布林带中轨线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较节前减 590 手，持仓量较节前增 79844 手；日内最高 1060，最低 1037，收盘 1050，（较上 一交易日结算价）跌 6 元/吨，跌幅 0.57%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。目前市场也处于传统需求淡 季，整体市场交投情绪清淡。节前部分产线冷修，产能收缩，供需格局略有改善。 但往上空间若想打开需得房产企稳。短期预计维持震荡运行。关注后期房产政策 以及产线检修情况。 纯碱的核心矛盾是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改善。 目前重碱需求一般，轻碱需求较好一定程度上对冲重碱需求的减量，但整体还是 过剩格局延续。目前行业持续亏损，下方面临较强成本支撑。同时随着节后资金 回流，节前主动减仓的资金重新进场，今日价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is volatile [1] Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" (due to cold repairs and policies) and "weak actual demand" (caused by the sluggish real - estate market and seasonal off - peak seasons). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the price rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. In the short term, the glass market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and closed lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightens, indicating short - term volatility. The pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 294,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 6,827 lots. The intraday high was 1083, the low was 1064, and the closing price was 1072, down 20 yuan/ton or 1.83% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market is stable with overall sales slowing down as the industry gradually takes holidays. In East China, there are few changes, with stable prices and slowing sales. In Central China, the market operates steadily, with middle - and downstream enterprises focusing on collecting payments. In South China, the market remains stable for now, with most downstream enterprises finishing their work and the trading atmosphere weakening [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0558 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo with a designed capacity of 600 tons each were shut down today [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing factories in all regions have declined [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% from the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.85 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 67.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 43.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42.86 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations (cold repairs and policies) and weak actual demand (real - estate downturn and seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the main pressure for price rebound. Real - estate demand has not improved, and although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction remains. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are finishing work, and the market sentiment is weak. So the glass market weakened intraday and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is oscillating with a slight upward bias [1] Core View - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between the "expectation of supply contraction" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (sluggish real estate + seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Although there are some factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is advisable to adopt an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass futures main contract opened low and moved lower, weakening during the session. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening triple track, indicating a short - term oscillating with a slight upward bias signal. Resistance is near the upper Bollinger Band, and support is near the 30 - day moving average. Trading volume decreased by 762,000 lots compared to yesterday, and open interest decreased by 78,483 lots. The intraday high was 1109, the low was 1078, and the closing price was 1088, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, the market is stable with acceptable overall shipments; in East China, the purchasing sentiment is weak, and manufacturers' quotes are temporarily stable; in Central China, middle - and downstream buyers are rational, and transactions are mediocre; in South China, most downstream enterprises are on holiday except for a few processing plants rushing orders, and the purchasing sentiment has declined [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 68 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5th, the total weekly output of float glass was 1.0558 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged week - on - week; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo stopped production today, each with a designed capacity of 600 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing plants in all regions have declined [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared to the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.85 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand. High inventory restricts the market rebound. Although there are some positive factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is recommended to take an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, and the market strengthens in the short term due to the sharp rise in energy costs and the possible shutdown of Dongtai Zhongbo's production line, the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is ending, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, showing a strengthening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks opened upward, indicating a short - term slightly upward trend. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 30 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 764,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 1,452 lots. The intraday high was 1,120, the low was 1,085, and the closing price was 1,109, up 36 yuan/ton or 3.36% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, prices were stable, shipments were okay, and trading weakened; in East China, enterprises mostly kept prices stable, downstream demand was weak, and purchases were mainly for rigid needs; in Central China, the market was stable, middle and downstream buyers were rational, and the focus was on collecting payments; in South China, except for a few processing plants rushing to work, most downstream enterprises were on holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 89 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, the same as the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, the same as the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025) [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% week - on - week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - demand", and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk to rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival in February, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and short - term prices may maintain volatile operation, with a possible weakening trend later. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a contracting horn, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 415,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 34,986 lots. The intraday high was 1084, the low was 1062, and the closing price was 1072, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.28% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, prices are mostly stable with some increases, and there is appropriate restocking; in East China, trading has become lighter, and downstream buyers maintain rigid - demand purchases; in Central China, the market is running stably, and middle and downstream buyers are rational, mainly for rigid demand; in South China, except for some flexible transactions, most prices remain stable, and most downstream enterprises are in the process of winding up, with purchases mainly for rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, with a basis of - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week. In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or - 1.22% week - on - week and + 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually winding up [2] - **Import and export**: In December 2025, China's float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is short - term shock [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. Although anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved. After entering February and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream demand is expected to weaken further. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and cold - repair of production lines [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main glass contract opened lower today and fluctuated during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short - term shock signal. The pressure during the session continued to focus on the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support focused on the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 77,681 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 72,809 lots. The intraday high was 1087, the low was 1046, and the closing price was 1056, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.4% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the shipment was okay, the price was stable, and the focus was on order closing and pre - holiday collection; in East China, the trading was weakening, and enterprises mainly kept prices stable; in Central China, the market was running stably, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises slowed down; in South China, some downstream enterprises stocked up appropriately according to orders and storage capacity, but most still focused on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 36 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% from the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, unchanged from the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure was not significantly relieved [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% from the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand of most enterprises gradually entered the final stage from north to south [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - world demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. The real - estate demand has not improved. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening later and changes in macro - policies and cold - repair of production lines [4]