2026年1月6日动力煤市场简报 一、市场综述：报价试探性上涨，需求响应冷淡 当前动力煤市场呈现"供应端挺价、需求端观望"的僵持特征。产地供应逐步恢复，港口库存持续去化， 叠加进口煤供应扰动，贸易商报价试探性上涨。然而，终端电厂库存高位运行，非电行业采购乏力，市 场实际成交清淡，价格上行缺乏持续性需求支撑。 二、供应端：产地逐步恢复，结构性矛盾显现 1. 主产区供应恢复，价格分化 来源：市场资讯 （来源：煤炭视界） 鄂尔多斯市场前期因完成年度任务停产的煤矿陆续复产，供应量恢复正常。部分性价比高的煤矿因需求 小幅释放，价格上调5–10元/吨，但贸易商拉运仍显谨慎。榆林市场生产基本稳定，价格整体持稳。下 游化工企业仅少量刚需采购，市场交易活跃度偏低。晋北市场受港口情绪传导，价格稳中小涨，但煤矿 出货速度普遍偏缓。 2. 港口库存持续去化，成本倒挂支撑挺价 截至今日，环渤海九港库存降至2837万吨，日环比下降12万吨。由于发运到港成本持续倒挂，贸易商低 价出货意愿低，尤其低硫优质煤种报价坚挺。今日北港贸易商报价：5500K低硫煤690–700元/吨， 5000K低硫煤600–600元/吨，4500K低硫煤520–5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply contraction expectations have intensified again, with polysilicon leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, lithium carbonate has stopped falling due to tight supply - demand, and polysilicon prices may rise due to supply contraction expectations. In the long term, silicon supply contraction is expected, and the supply - demand surplus of lithium carbonate is narrowing [3]. - For industrial silicon, there is a situation of weak supply and demand during the dry season, and the price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, policy expectations have risen again, and the price will fluctuate and rebound. For lithium carbonate, demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the dry season, supply and demand are both weak, and the silicon price will oscillate [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon is stable. The domestic inventory is 448,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In October, the domestic monthly output was 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume in October was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [8]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces in the southwest has decreased rapidly, and the supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon industries may decline, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The social inventory is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipts registration [8]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, but the short - term market sentiment is volatile, so the price will oscillate [8]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations have risen again, and the polysilicon price will fluctuate and rebound [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 is 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 7,270 lots. In October, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will promote industry self - discipline and "anti - involution" work [9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, policy expectations have risen. In terms of supply, production in the southwest will decrease during the dry season, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the demand has weakened since November. Overall, the demand has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking, and the anti - involution policy is expected to strengthen, so the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the price, but the demand is weakening, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.99% to 96,340 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 22,323 lots to 1,055,957 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 750 yuan/ton to 92,800 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, supply and demand are both strong, and de - stocking is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is growing strongly but is restricted by ore shortages. The demand is good, and speculative demand may emerge. The social inventory is de - stocking, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price will oscillate at a high level [13]. 2. Market Monitoring No specific content provided for analysis. 3. Commodity Index - On November 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2,543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index was 2,200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index was 1,336.40, down 0.13% [54]. - The new energy commodity index on November 26, 2025, was 451.43, with a daily increase of 0.35%, a decrease of 0.33% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.41% in the past month, and an increase of 9.47% since the beginning of the year [55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is to oscillate. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Conditions - As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [5] Supply Side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of power coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [5] Demand Side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: In the afternoon of the day, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the copper price increased with rising positions. The main contract price broke through the high on Monday and approached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through the high in May 2024 during the session. The warming of both domestic and foreign macro - environments, combined with the expected supply contraction, led to the continuous increase in copper price with rising positions [4]. - **沪铝**: In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the aluminum price increased with rising positions. As the macro - environment improved and the copper price rose strongly, the aluminum price followed. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods decreased, while the inventory reduction of intermediate electrolytic aluminum slowed down due to the high aluminum price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **沪镍**: In the afternoon, the position of Shanghai nickel decreased while the price rebounded, especially at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved and non - ferrous metals prices rose, nickel rebounded with a decreasing position but lacked strength. With the improvement of the macro - environment today, the nickel price rebounded again with a decreasing position. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the high on Monday [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The Trump administration in the United States on Friday overturned an air - pollution regulation of the previous administration, which imposed stricter restrictions on the emissions of copper smelters. The copper rule finalized in May 2024 required smelters to control pollutants such as lead, arsenic, mercury, benzene, and dioxins according to the latest US federal air standards. The US announcement provided a two - year exemption for affected fixed sources, aiming to promote US mineral security by reducing the regulatory burden on domestic copper producers [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,400 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, copper monthly spread, etc. These charts show the inventory and price spread trends of copper from different aspects [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The charts for aluminum include the aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory, which reflect the market situation of aluminum [20][22][24]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - related charts cover the nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel monthly spread, providing information on the nickel market [32][34][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a significant increase on August 25, with various contracts showing notable gains, particularly in coking coal and fuel oil, driven by supply concerns and improved market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal's main contract rose by over 6%, with a near increase of 22,000 contracts, while coking coal and coke prices were supported by supply-side concerns following a mining accident [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil's main contract increased by over 5%, buoyed by stable international oil prices and seasonal demand from regions like the Middle East and South Asia [3]. - Other commodities such as iron ore, glass, and rubber also saw gains of over 2%, indicating a broad-based rally in the market [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in coking coal prices is attributed to supply-side disruptions and improved sentiment, although actual supply impacts from the recent mining accident may be limited [2]. - The international oil market remains a focal point, with ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply risks, particularly regarding Russian oil [3]. - The overall commodity price index rose, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1443.58 points, up 0.97% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate saw a slight decline of 0.30%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards supply fundamentals, despite expectations of demand growth in the upcoming consumption season [5]. - The egg market remains under pressure, with prices slightly down due to high supply levels and limited demand, although there are expectations for a recovery in demand as schools reopen [6].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The approval of futures and options for various paper products by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) indicates a growing interest in the paper market, particularly in pulp and related commodities [1]. Group 1: Market Developments - The CSRC has approved the registration of futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]. - As of August 15, the warehouse futures inventory of pulp was 235,114 tons, a decrease of 39 tons from the previous trading day, while the factory inventory remained stable at 19,240 tons [1]. - By August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports for pulp in China reached 2.099 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period, reflecting a 2.5% rise [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures reports that expectations of supply contraction are driving market sentiment, with major international pulp producers like Suzano and Bracell announcing production cuts or shifts [2]. - External pricing has increased by $20 per ton, providing cost support for the current pulp market, although demand improvements are uncertain [2]. - The transition from the off-peak to peak season in the downstream market is leading paper mills to cautiously pass on cost pressures, but high finished paper inventories and low profit margins are limiting the rebound potential for pulp prices [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that while there is clear cost support for pulp prices, the slight increase in inventory this week has reduced pressure compared to earlier periods [3]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, suggesting that pulp prices may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation, although terminal consumption is lagging, limiting the upside potential [3]. - A strategy of low-margin positioning may be advisable given the current market conditions [3].

Report Date - The report is dated August 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel**: After the coal mine safety meeting, the hype sentiment for coking coal cooled, leading to a correction in the black sector. This week, the supply of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but overall inventory is low, and there is support from low - price buyers. The short - term market optimism has cooled, and the upper resistance for the rebar October contract is between 3250 - 3300. However, due to the expected supply contraction, the downside space is limited, with support at around 3100 for the rebar October contract (around 3350 for hot - rolled coils). The short - term disk is expected to be oscillating weakly [3] - **Iron Ore**: Market supervision has tightened, and speculative sentiment has declined. The price of iron ore was dragged down by the sharp drop in coking coal. The fundamentals of iron ore are currently stable, with short - term supply being neutral and iron - making water production expected to remain stable. Production restrictions have a limited impact on near - month demand. Steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, supporting the price. The price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There have been frequent reports of supply disruptions in Shanxi coal mines. The "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. However, the incremental substitution effect of imports cannot be ignored. The supply - demand of coking coal has returned to a tight - balance pattern. The long - term outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events [29] - **Ferroalloys**: The price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Currently, steel mill profits are good, and high iron - making water production supports ferroalloy demand. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is weak. In the short term, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction [46] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with daily production fluctuating around 106,000 - 107,000 tons. The demand for soda ash is expected to remain weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory has reached a new high, putting pressure on the spot price. The cost has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [56] - **Glass**: The near - term trading has returned to industrial reality, and policy expectations may fluctuate. The daily melting volume of the supply side is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by 7%. The market is in a weak - balance state. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3269 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3314 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3188 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3432 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3439 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3439 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3386 yuan/ton, in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, in Beijing was 3290 yuan/ton, in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3460 yuan/ton, in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, and in Shenyang was 3400 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 51 yuan/ton, the 05 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 6 yuan/ton, and the 10 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 132 yuan/ton. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 28 yuan/ton, the 05 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - screw spread was 163 yuan/ton, the 05 roll - screw spread was 125 yuan/ton, and the 10 roll - screw spread was 251 yuan/ton [9][13] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 776 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 755.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 792 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The 01 basis was - 4 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 18 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajás fines was 879 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special was 646 yuan/ton [20] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making water production was 240,660 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3467 million tons, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, the global shipping volume was 3.0467 billion tons, the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2.4277 billion tons, the 45 - port arrival volume was 2.3819 billion tons, the 45 - port inventory was 138.1927 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Cost and Basis**: On August 15, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 222.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1605 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 124.6 yuan/ton [34] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 996 yuan/ton, and the CFR price of Australian Peak Downs North was 203.5 US dollars/wet ton. The ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On August 15, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [47] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5800 yuan/ton [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1450 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1293 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1395 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 157 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [57] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 116 yuan/ton. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the light - alkali market price was 1250 yuan/ton [57][60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1046 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1211 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 263 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [83] - **Basis and Sales**: The 05 contract basis (Shahe) was - 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis (Shahe) was 98.6 yuan/ton. On August 11, 2025, the Shahe sales rate was 82%, the Hubei sales rate was 56%, the East China sales rate was 87%, and the South China sales rate was 99% [83][84]