本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 11月TOP10/TOP100房企全口径销售额环比-9%/-12% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 1）2025年11月，TOP10房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售面积分别为1,270亿元、941亿 元、685万平，同比分别为-29.8%、-30.5%、-25.8%，环比分别为-9.3%、-7.9%、+7.1%。 2）2025年1-11月，TOP10房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售面积分别为1.48万亿元、 1.07万亿元、6,897万平，同比分别为-17.0%、-18.5%、-25.3%，累计同比较1-10月变化-1.4pct、-1.4pct、 0.0pct。 3）2025年11月，TOP100房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额 ...

Core Insights - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the first eight months reached 23,270.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3%, consistent with the decline observed in the first seven months [1] - The top three companies by sales in the first eight months were Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Property, each exceeding 150 billion yuan [1] - In August alone, companies such as Greentown, Binjiang, China State Construction, and Poly Real Estate showed strong sales performance [1] Sales Performance Summary - The average sales for the top 10 real estate companies was 1,145.0 billion yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year [1] - The average sales for companies ranked 11-30 was 287.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% decline compared to the previous year [1] - The average sales for companies ranked 31-50 was 138.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [1] - The average sales for companies ranked 51-100 was 66.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.4% [1] Market Outlook - The China Index Academy anticipates that with the arrival of the "Golden September," real estate companies are expected to enhance their sales strategies and optimization efforts, potentially leading to a mild market recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with major companies reporting substantial year-on-year decreases in sales figures for July and the first seven months of 2025 [4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In July 2025, the top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of 107.2 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.7% [4] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total sales for the top 10 companies reached 959 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.2% [4] - The top 100 real estate companies saw total sales of 226.5 billion in July 2025, down 25.2% year-on-year [4] - Cumulatively, the top 100 companies reported total sales of 2.01 trillion for the first seven months, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year [4] Group 2: Median Sales Data - The median year-on-year sales change for the top 50 companies in July 2025 was -25.6%, while the median for the first seven months was -10.8% [5] - Among the top 50 companies, 46 reported an average year-on-year sales change of -18.7% in July 2025 [5] - In July 2025, only 5 out of 20 mainstream companies reported positive year-on-year sales growth, with China Jinmao leading at +51% [5] Group 3: Notable Performers - For the first seven months of 2025, China Jinmao reported a cumulative year-on-year sales increase of 23%, while Yuexiu Property and Jianfa Real Estate also showed positive growth [5] - In July 2025, notable performers included China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property, both achieving significant year-on-year sales increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in sales, with significant year-on-year decreases in both sales amounts and areas sold among top companies, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May 2025, the top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of 157.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while the sales area decreased by 23.5% [2]. - Cumulatively from January to May 2025, the top 10 companies had total sales of 676.3 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with a sales area decline of 23.1% [3]. - The top 100 companies in May 2025 had total sales of 317.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [2][4]. Group 2: Median Sales Data - Among the top 50 companies, 46 reported a median year-on-year sales change of -9.0% in May 2025, while the cumulative median for January to May was +0.2% [4]. - In May 2025, 7 out of 20 major companies reported positive year-on-year sales growth, with notable performances from China State Construction (up 455%) and Sunac China (up 128%) [4]. Group 3: Cumulative Sales Trends - The cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to May 2025 totaled 1,411.3 billion yuan, representing an 8.4% year-on-year decline [3]. - The average year-on-year sales growth for the top 50 companies in May was +37.5%, with a median of -9.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the sales growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 2 percentage points month-on-month to -10%. The month-on-month sales decreased by 10%, which is better than the average of -14% over the same period in the past three years. The sales growth rates for different tiers of companies varied, with the top 1-10 and 11-30 companies experiencing a decline of 0.04 percentage points and 6 percentage points respectively, while the 31-50 and 51-100 companies saw increases of 12% and 17% respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry consists of 256 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 2,623.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 2,482.2 billion [4]. Performance Metrics - Absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -2.7%, -6.1%, and 14.4% respectively. Relative performance is 0.3%, -3.0%, and 9.8% for the same periods [6].