Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both transaction volume and prices, with second-hand housing transactions in key cities continuing to increase[2] - As of January 25, 2026, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 22 cities saw a year-on-year decline of only -13.0%, a significant improvement from -26.8% the previous month[5] - The average transaction area for second-hand houses in 22 cities reached 279.0 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%[5] Price Dynamics - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price decreasing by only -0.7% month-on-month in January 2026, compared to a consistent decline of around -1.3% in the previous six months[12] - In January 2026, the month-on-month price changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.3%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing improvement from the end of 2025[12] Demand and Supply Factors - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand housing demand, with new housing sales declining significantly in January 2026[19] - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with the total sales area of new and second-hand homes in Shanghai in 2025 reaching 3,474.8 million square meters, slightly higher than in 2024[34] Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative decline in housing prices has reached 37.0% for listing prices and 40.5% for transaction prices since the peak in July 2021, indicating a significant correction compared to other countries[39] - The rental yield in December 2025 rose to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, suggesting a more balanced market[54] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with the pace of recovery dependent on short-term factors such as rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings[65] - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be crucial for assessing the market's stabilization and potential recovery[3]