作者：余飞 01 上海楼市，出大招了 新年救市第一枪，由上海打响。 2月25日上海出台的《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，主要内容如下： 非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人士）在外环内买住宅的社保或个税年限，从之前的3年降低为1年。3年社保或个税满3年的非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人 士），可以在外环内再多买1套。 此外，上海还进行了购房政策创新，提出没有上海户籍、社保也不用担心，如果你有5年以上的上海居住证，也可以买1套 （不限位置）。 非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人士）如果在上海缴纳了1年社保或个税，可以在外环外购买住房不限套数。 提高住房公积金最高贷款额度，家庭从160万提高到240万。如果叠加多子女、购买绿色建筑，最高可以达到324万元。对购买第二套住房的最高贷款额度 也相应予以提高。 上海户籍居民家庭中的子女成年后，购买住房属于成年子女家庭唯一住房的，暂免征收个人住房房产税。即对购房人于未成年时（或于上海个人住房房产 税试点前）已与父母、（外）祖父母共同拥有住房的，在上海新购或置换住房后，该住房仍属于成年子女家庭唯一住房的（除上述共同拥有住房外），暂 免征收个人住房房产税。 尽管上海依旧延续着过往的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a real-life example of asset hedging, where homeowners in Hangzhou profited from a combination of real estate and gold appreciation, despite the property value declining significantly [1][2] - The article raises a question about which asset, gold or real estate, will retain more value by 2026, indicating a shift in investment logic [3][6] - Gold is viewed as a "ultimate insurance" against geopolitical risks, inflation, and dollar instability, supported by central banks' increasing gold reserves [5][6] Group 2 - Real estate is characterized by stability, providing rental cash flow and benefiting from urban development, with rental yields in major cities rising to 2.39% [6][7] - The article suggests three actionable recommendations: avoid chasing high gold prices, focus on core urban real estate, and consider holding both assets for better risk management [8][9]

本文转自【潮新闻】； 不久前，一套拱墅区近大运河地铁站的酒店式公寓在商拍平台拍卖，宣称"年回报率达21%"。吸引了30人报名，超600人设置提醒，近8500次围观，直到 100次出价后终于成交，建筑面积37.24平方米，拍下价为55.2万元。 "回报率21%"当然是虚假的，这一回报率对应的是16.8万元的起拍价。根据拍下的价格，再加上成交服务费、契税等，理论上回报率在5.8%左右。即便如 此，数字看上去依然可观。从30人报名、上百次出价的"热度"来看，二手酒店式公寓投资似乎也升温明显。 据记者统计，2026年刚开年仅一个月，阿里资产上杭州公寓类的商拍就已成交了56套，有40套在50次出价以上，其中出价百次以上的则有8套。 总价低，"账面回报率"高 作为一个受捧的二手公寓样本之一，记者于日前探营了运河万科中心，目前该小区在贝壳上挂牌出售的只有5套，出租的房源有15套，总价全部低于100万 元，均为面积区间在37-44平方米的双钥匙公寓。 记者看了其中一套37平方米的在售房源，挂牌价63万元，加上契税和佣金约2万多元，楼上楼下两间房，每间实际面积在20来平方米左右，每间租金是 1800元/月，扣除每年2000元左 ...

Core Viewpoint - The perception of desirable housing among wealthy individuals is shifting, with a growing interest in older walk-up apartments over modern elevator buildings, driven by factors such as cost efficiency and location advantages [3][5][46]. Group 1: Price and Value - Walk-up apartments are generally 15%–30% cheaper per square meter compared to elevator apartments, allowing buyers to purchase more units for the same investment [7][10]. - For instance, in Guangzhou's Tianhe District, the average price for elevator apartments is 60,000 yuan per square meter, while walk-up apartments are priced at 42,000 yuan per square meter, resulting in a potential savings of 1.8 million yuan for a 100 square meter unit [7][9]. Group 2: Hidden Costs - Walk-up apartments typically have lower shared area percentages (10%–15%) compared to elevator apartments (25%–30%), resulting in more usable space for the buyer [14][16]. - A 100 square meter walk-up apartment may provide 85–90 square meters of usable space, while an elevator apartment may only offer 70–75 square meters, leading to significant cost differences [16][18]. Group 3: Holding Costs - The monthly property management fees for walk-up apartments range from 0.5 to 1.8 yuan per square meter, while elevator apartments can cost between 2.5 to 4 yuan per square meter, leading to substantial savings over time [20][22]. - Additionally, elevator maintenance and replacement costs can be significant, with many elevators requiring replacement after 15–20 years, which adds to the financial burden for owners of elevator apartments [22][24]. Group 4: Location Advantage - Many walk-up apartments are located in prime urban areas, built during periods of city expansion, making them highly desirable despite their age [26][30]. - For example, 90% of walk-up apartment complexes in Shanghai's inner ring are within 500 meters of subway stations, providing significant commuting advantages compared to newer developments in suburban areas [28][30]. Group 5: Rental Returns - Walk-up apartments tend to offer higher rental yields compared to elevator apartments, making them more attractive investments [32][34]. - In Shanghai's Jing'an District, a 60 square meter walk-up apartment priced at 3 million yuan can generate a monthly rent of 6,000 yuan, yielding a return of approximately 2.4%, while a similarly located 80 square meter elevator apartment priced at 6 million yuan yields only 1.4% [32][34]. Group 6: Future Value Enhancement - The ongoing renovation of old neighborhoods and the installation of elevators in walk-up buildings are expected to increase their value significantly, with government subsidies available for such improvements [40][44]. - For instance, after an elevator was added to a building in Beijing's Chaoyang District, the price per square meter increased from 28,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan, a rise of about 14% [44].

2026年刚开年，各路大佬又开始了对楼市的新一轮"预言大会"。有人说要反弹，有人说还得跌，有人说"横盘稳着走"。 听多了是不是会更迷糊？ 那好吧，本期内容，我们不说虚的、不玩概念，就用踏踏实实的数据，把2026年楼市可能的走向，真话或许不中听，但往往最值钱。 01、房子没卖多少，"惜售"房东却变多了 不知道你注意到没有，最近二手房挂牌量好像没有以前那么"汹涌"了。 一组比较有趣的数据是，一般3-4月、9-10月是新挂牌房源的小高峰，早就成了一种定局，但是有意思的是，有些挂了很久还没有卖掉的"老房源"正在慢慢 的减少，是不是都卖了？ 不是！是很多房东自己主动撤牌了，他们之所以不想挂，原因其实不难理解。 有的挂了一半多不卖了，干脆直接下架观望一下；有的被中介或者身边人劝着以为"很快就会有回暖"…… 这种情绪，就叫"惜售情绪"，很像股市里"筹码被锁住了"的感觉，卖的人暂时不想卖，买的人在等。 再看需求端：买房的人气不爆，但也没断崖下跌，基本处于一个中间线，两边一对比，房源在减少，买家在犹豫，供需天平正在发生很微妙的倾斜。 市场还没热，但情绪已经在悄悄变化。 02、租售比2.47%，楼市触底了吗？ 咱们拿香港做一下参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of total demand in core cities, along with long-term factors such as rental yield and price-to-income ratio nearing valuation bottoms, collectively determine the direction of the real estate market's recovery in 2026. The pace of this recovery will depend on short-term factors like rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings [2][38]. Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both "volume" and "price." The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has increased, with a year-on-year decline in transaction area narrowing to -13.0% as of January 25, compared to -26.8% the previous month. The weekly transaction area reached 2.79 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive at 17.7% [4][5]. - In January, the transaction prices of second-hand homes have ended the accelerated decline seen since June 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of only -0.7%, an improvement from the previous half-year's average decline of around -1.3% [9]. Group 2: Short-term Factors Behind Positive Changes - The increase in second-hand home transactions is primarily due to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand. As the market enters a stock era, the sales of new and second-hand homes often offset each other. In December 2025, new home sales in 40 cities rebounded, while second-hand home sales remained relatively flat [13]. - The narrowing of price declines is influenced by seasonal factors, with sellers becoming more hesitant to lower prices as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a slowdown in price drops [14]. Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative price decline, rental yield, and price-to-income ratio indicate that the real estate market in most cities is nearing valuation bottoms. The total housing demand in core cities has stabilized, suggesting that the market is beginning to meet conditions for recovery [20]. - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with new home sales in 2025 at 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%. However, this decline is more due to the increased share of second-hand home transactions rather than a decrease in overall housing demand [21]. Group 4: Rental Yield and Price-to-Income Ratio - As of December 2025, the rental yield in 100 cities has risen to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, indicating a reasonable gap between rental yield and borrowing costs [31]. - The price-to-income ratio has shifted significantly during this downturn, with many properties transitioning from investment assets to consumer goods. The price-to-income ratio in most cities has returned to levels below those seen in 2006, indicating a reduction in valuation bubbles [35][36]. Group 5: Market Recovery Dynamics - The stabilization of total demand in core cities and the nearing of valuation bottoms for rental yield and price-to-income ratio will influence the pace of the real estate market's recovery. The rental prices and the volume of second-hand home listings will be critical short-term factors [38][43]. - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be a key window for assessing the market's recovery pace, with optimistic scenarios suggesting stable rental prices and second-hand home listings, while conservative scenarios may see renewed pressure from increased listings [44][45].

Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both transaction volume and prices, with second-hand housing transactions in key cities continuing to increase[2] - As of January 25, 2026, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 22 cities saw a year-on-year decline of only -13.0%, a significant improvement from -26.8% the previous month[5] - The average transaction area for second-hand houses in 22 cities reached 279.0 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%[5] Price Dynamics - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price decreasing by only -0.7% month-on-month in January 2026, compared to a consistent decline of around -1.3% in the previous six months[12] - In January 2026, the month-on-month price changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.3%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing improvement from the end of 2025[12] Demand and Supply Factors - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand housing demand, with new housing sales declining significantly in January 2026[19] - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with the total sales area of new and second-hand homes in Shanghai in 2025 reaching 3,474.8 million square meters, slightly higher than in 2024[34] Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative decline in housing prices has reached 37.0% for listing prices and 40.5% for transaction prices since the peak in July 2021, indicating a significant correction compared to other countries[39] - The rental yield in December 2025 rose to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, suggesting a more balanced market[54] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with the pace of recovery dependent on short-term factors such as rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings[65] - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be crucial for assessing the market's stabilization and potential recovery[3]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing sales in major cities [1][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In 2025, the national new housing sales area decreased year-on-year, with expectations for further decline in 2026, primarily due to weak demand in third and fourth-tier cities [1][4]. - First-tier cities require rental yields to exceed mortgage rates for price stabilization; currently, the average rental yield is about 1.8%, while mortgage rates are at least 3%, indicating a potential 30%-40% decline before reaching theoretical price bottoms [1][5]. - Some second-tier cities like Chongqing and Zhuhai show stable housing demand supported by population and economic fundamentals, while cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou continue to see declining transaction volumes [1][7]. Land Market Dynamics - In 2025, land transfer fees in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing increased year-on-year, indicating a stronger land market performance compared to other regions [1][8]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, especially in first and second-tier cities, with significant growth in mid-to-high-end properties compared to low-end ones [1][10][11]. Policy Expectations - There is cautious optimism regarding potential policy shifts to support the real estate market, but significant changes are not anticipated. The market recovery is attributed more to seasonal factors rather than substantial policy changes [2][4][13]. - Effective measures to reduce buyer burdens include relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates, and providing subsidies [3][15][16]. Future Price Trends - Without strong market stabilization policies, first-tier cities may experience greater price declines in 2026 compared to previous years [5][13]. - The overall market is still in an adjustment phase, but some cities and product types are showing signs of structural stabilization [13][19]. Supply and Demand Indicators - The supply of new homes is increasingly focused on high-end properties, while the second-hand market caters more to first-time buyers [23][24]. - The demand for low-end properties remains stable, while high-end market demand is softening, indicating a potential disconnect in the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors should focus on properties with reasonable rental yields, particularly in stable areas where prices have adjusted favorably [26]. Additional Important Insights - The concentration of sales in major real estate companies, particularly state-owned enterprises, is notable, with a few companies contributing significantly to the market [12]. - The market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure in transaction volumes, with low and high-end properties performing better than mid-range options [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the real estate market in China, highlighting critical trends, policy implications, and investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of asset prices in key cities due to the positive shift in CPI and the continuous decline in risk-free interest rates, indicating a transition from a "negative outlook" to a "neutral" stance for certain assets in major cities [1]. Summary by Sections Rental Yield and CPI - The past residential rental yield was 1.5%, which, when considering CPI, is not low. The market needs to differentiate between actual and nominal yields. Historically adjusted nominal rental yields are effective indicators. The traditional calculation of rental yield using "nominal rent / nominal house price" has comparability issues. The adjusted nominal yield, which includes potential inflation, is a more reasonable metric. Under high inflation, the nominal rental yield of 1.5% in first-tier cities is equivalent to an international nominal yield of 3.5% [2]. Rental Yield Trends in Major Cities - In first-tier cities, the rental yield has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025. However, due to previous deflation, the "rental yield + CPI" has decreased from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2025, which is below mortgage rates but slightly above risk-free rates. With CPI turning positive in some first-tier cities by Q4 2025, asset prices are expected to shift from a "negative outlook" to "neutral" [3]. Second-Tier Cities Potential - The "rental yield + CPI" in second-tier cities shows potential for recovery, with data indicating a rise from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025. This is an improvement compared to the current 1.8% yield on ten-year government bonds. Cities like Hefei and Xi'an are projected to see increases in their rental yield + CPI to 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively, by 2025 [4]. Market Confidence and Pricing Trends - There is an improvement in home-buying confidence, with 16% of residents expressing stronger intent to purchase homes, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. However, the proportion of declining listing prices has risen to 19%, indicating a weakening in the second-hand housing market. The article suggests monitoring CPI trends and regulatory guidance on price expectations [5].

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is showing a clear trend where luxury homes and entry-level properties are performing well, while mid-range improvement housing is struggling to find its footing [1][4][13] - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" phenomenon, indicating a significant divide in buyer interest and sales performance [4][5][13] Luxury Market - High-end properties are thriving, with unique resources and quality allowing them to maintain a separate market dynamic [6][8] - In November, luxury properties priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter frequently appeared on sales charts, with notable sales such as Jianfa Haiyan in Haidian district achieving a price of 137,036 yuan per square meter and generating over 600 million yuan in sales [7][9] - Buyers in the luxury segment are less sensitive to price changes, focusing instead on scarcity and exclusive resources [7][8] Entry-Level Market - Entry-level properties are gaining traction due to their affordability, with several units priced below 60,000 yuan per square meter making it to the top sales rankings [11] - Key factors driving the success of entry-level homes include proximity to subway lines, low total prices, and high usable area ratios [12] - For instance, the Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan in Tongzhou sold nearly 70 units at just over 60,000 yuan per square meter, highlighting the appeal of affordable housing options [11][12] Mid-Range Market - The mid-range improvement housing market is facing challenges, caught in a difficult position without the allure of luxury or the price appeal of entry-level homes [13][14] - Properties priced between 6 million to just over 10 million yuan are struggling, with some previously popular projects now seeing price declines in the secondary market [13][14] - The disparity in costs within the same project could pose risks for future transactions, as buyers who purchased at higher prices may face losses if market conditions worsen [14] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue seeking balance between policy support and self-correction, with a persistent trend of "two extremes stable, middle fluctuating" likely to endure [15][16]