近些年，国内房地产市场进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是像郑州、石家庄等二三线城市房价出现下跌。之后，上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也加入到下跌 的队伍之中。全国平均房价跌幅已经超过了30%。而在进入到2026年之后，各地房价仍然延续之前调整的趋势。数据显示：1月份全国百城二手住宅均价为 12905元/平方米，环比下跌0.85%，同比下跌8.67%。 第一，要看当前房价的趋势 房子的租售之比，也是决定你现在是否卖掉房子的关键参考指标。举个例子，上海一套二手房的市价是700万，每个月的租金是7500元，一年租金回报率要 低于银行存款利率。显然，在高房价的背景之下，房子的租售比是很低的。也就是说，现在的房子并不具备投资价值，就连投资性购房需求都不会进来。而 只有等到房子的投资回报率达到3-4%以上，投资购房需求才有可能入市。 现在卖掉房子，是"聪明"还是"蠢"？内行人一语道破，终于懂了。就是你只要看三大指标，它们分别是：当前房价的大趋势、要看房价与收入之比，以及看 房子的租售比。从目前情况来看，现在房价正处于下行趋势之中，房价收入之比处于历史高位，房子的租售比也较低。这就显示出，现在卖掉房子是"聪 明"之举，而绝非"愚蠢 ...

作者：余飞 01 上海楼市，出大招了 新年救市第一枪，由上海打响。 2月25日上海出台的《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，主要内容如下： 非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人士）在外环内买住宅的社保或个税年限，从之前的3年降低为1年。3年社保或个税满3年的非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人 士），可以在外环内再多买1套。 此外，上海还进行了购房政策创新，提出没有上海户籍、社保也不用担心，如果你有5年以上的上海居住证，也可以买1套 （不限位置）。 非户籍（包括家庭或成年单身人士）如果在上海缴纳了1年社保或个税，可以在外环外购买住房不限套数。 提高住房公积金最高贷款额度，家庭从160万提高到240万。如果叠加多子女、购买绿色建筑，最高可以达到324万元。对购买第二套住房的最高贷款额度 也相应予以提高。 上海户籍居民家庭中的子女成年后，购买住房属于成年子女家庭唯一住房的，暂免征收个人住房房产税。即对购房人于未成年时（或于上海个人住房房产 税试点前）已与父母、（外）祖父母共同拥有住房的，在上海新购或置换住房后，该住房仍属于成年子女家庭唯一住房的（除上述共同拥有住房外），暂 免征收个人住房房产税。 尽管上海依旧延续着过往的 ...

中国的房价收入比创历史新低！ 2025年，中国的房价收入比为5.9，是20年以来的最低值。 房价收入比的计算方式为：标准住房总价 ÷ 家庭年可支配收入，这是一项重要的"民生指数"，反映了买房的难易程度。 近年来，中国的房价收入比已由2020年的峰值7.9降至去年的5.9。 国际上的合理区间为4-6，9是一道分水岭，超过9即为买房负担重。 说明整体买房负担显著缓解，楼市调整的成效显现。 但是，一线及强二线城市比值仍远超合理水平。 深圳26、北京22、上海21…… 也就是说，家庭平均20年以上才能在一线城市购买一套90平米住房。 在天津，买房到底难不难呢？ 需要明确的是，中国的房价收入比是按照新房售价进行计算的。 但按照国际惯例以及房产成交占比来说，天津的房屋总价应该以二手房的平均售价进行计算。 整体买房负担较过往历史高点得到大幅缓解。 这一指标，除了体现买房负担之外，还体现出房价的合理性。 在一定程度上，天津的房价已经进入到合理空间，"泡沫"已经挤得非常彻底。 因为，天津楼市全年成交二手房占比已经高达70%，还没有将公产、企业产房源包含在内。 根据官方在2026年1月发布的2025年全年数据显示，全市居民人均可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of total demand in core cities, along with long-term factors such as rental yield and price-to-income ratio nearing valuation bottoms, collectively determine the direction of the real estate market's recovery in 2026. The pace of this recovery will depend on short-term factors like rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings [2][38]. Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both "volume" and "price." The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has increased, with a year-on-year decline in transaction area narrowing to -13.0% as of January 25, compared to -26.8% the previous month. The weekly transaction area reached 2.79 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive at 17.7% [4][5]. - In January, the transaction prices of second-hand homes have ended the accelerated decline seen since June 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of only -0.7%, an improvement from the previous half-year's average decline of around -1.3% [9]. Group 2: Short-term Factors Behind Positive Changes - The increase in second-hand home transactions is primarily due to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand. As the market enters a stock era, the sales of new and second-hand homes often offset each other. In December 2025, new home sales in 40 cities rebounded, while second-hand home sales remained relatively flat [13]. - The narrowing of price declines is influenced by seasonal factors, with sellers becoming more hesitant to lower prices as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a slowdown in price drops [14]. Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative price decline, rental yield, and price-to-income ratio indicate that the real estate market in most cities is nearing valuation bottoms. The total housing demand in core cities has stabilized, suggesting that the market is beginning to meet conditions for recovery [20]. - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with new home sales in 2025 at 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%. However, this decline is more due to the increased share of second-hand home transactions rather than a decrease in overall housing demand [21]. Group 4: Rental Yield and Price-to-Income Ratio - As of December 2025, the rental yield in 100 cities has risen to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, indicating a reasonable gap between rental yield and borrowing costs [31]. - The price-to-income ratio has shifted significantly during this downturn, with many properties transitioning from investment assets to consumer goods. The price-to-income ratio in most cities has returned to levels below those seen in 2006, indicating a reduction in valuation bubbles [35][36]. Group 5: Market Recovery Dynamics - The stabilization of total demand in core cities and the nearing of valuation bottoms for rental yield and price-to-income ratio will influence the pace of the real estate market's recovery. The rental prices and the volume of second-hand home listings will be critical short-term factors [38][43]. - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be a key window for assessing the market's recovery pace, with optimistic scenarios suggesting stable rental prices and second-hand home listings, while conservative scenarios may see renewed pressure from increased listings [44][45].

Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both transaction volume and prices, with second-hand housing transactions in key cities continuing to increase[2] - As of January 25, 2026, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 22 cities saw a year-on-year decline of only -13.0%, a significant improvement from -26.8% the previous month[5] - The average transaction area for second-hand houses in 22 cities reached 279.0 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%[5] Price Dynamics - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price decreasing by only -0.7% month-on-month in January 2026, compared to a consistent decline of around -1.3% in the previous six months[12] - In January 2026, the month-on-month price changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.3%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing improvement from the end of 2025[12] Demand and Supply Factors - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand housing demand, with new housing sales declining significantly in January 2026[19] - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with the total sales area of new and second-hand homes in Shanghai in 2025 reaching 3,474.8 million square meters, slightly higher than in 2024[34] Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative decline in housing prices has reached 37.0% for listing prices and 40.5% for transaction prices since the peak in July 2021, indicating a significant correction compared to other countries[39] - The rental yield in December 2025 rose to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, suggesting a more balanced market[54] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with the pace of recovery dependent on short-term factors such as rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings[65] - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be crucial for assessing the market's stabilization and potential recovery[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in social behavior and economic conditions in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, highlighting the increasing trends of young people choosing not to marry or have children, the challenging job market, rising traffic congestion, and exorbitant housing prices. Group 1: Marriage and Birth Rates - The marriage rate in China has declined from approximately 9‰ in 2015 to around 4.3‰ in 2024, while the birth rate has dropped from 11.99‰ in 2015 to 6.77‰ in 2024, indicating a rising trend of "non-marriage and non-childbearing" among the post-90s and post-00s generations [5][8]. - The high cost of housing and raising children in first-tier cities is a significant deterrent for young people considering marriage and parenthood [11][13]. - Parents from the 70s and 80s are becoming less insistent on their children marrying and having children, recognizing the pressures faced by the younger generation [15][17]. Group 2: Employment Challenges - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 once exceeded 20%, marking a historical high, reflecting the increasing difficulty for young people to find jobs [20][22]. - The number of college graduates has consistently surpassed 10 million annually, leading to an oversupply in the job market, while traditional industries are contracting and new technologies like AI are replacing certain jobs [22][24]. - Young job seekers often face challenges such as unresponsive job applications and low salary offers, contributing to a sense of instability in employment [24]. Group 3: Traffic Congestion - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing severe traffic congestion, with the number of registered vehicles in Shanghai nearing 5.9 million, while road infrastructure has not expanded correspondingly [33][35]. - Average commuting times in Shenzhen are around 36 minutes, but many residents experience over an hour of travel each way, highlighting the daily struggles with traffic [37]. - Cities are implementing technological solutions to alleviate congestion, such as AI traffic management systems, but individuals are advised to consider their commuting choices to improve their quality of life [39][41]. Group 4: Housing Prices - Housing prices in first-tier cities remain extremely high, with average prices in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai reaching 30,000 yuan per square meter or more [43][45]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in many first-tier cities exceeds reasonable levels, with Shenzhen's ratio approaching 30, indicating that ordinary families would need to save for decades to afford a home [47]. - The rental yield for residential properties in these cities is generally below 2%, suggesting that property values are primarily driven by appreciation expectations rather than actual rental income [48].

靠近JR熊本站的"MJR熊本Gate Tower"最顶层的房源价格超过2亿日元 日本2024年新出售的新建住宅楼平均价格（按70平方米换算），除以当地的平均年收入，算出"房价收 入比"，日本全国平均值为10.38倍。这意味着只有一个人工作的家庭很难买得起新房…… 在日本，东京以外其他地区新建住宅楼价格的上涨也变得明显。在建筑成本和地价上涨等背景下，销售 价格提高，占全日本一半以上的24个都道府县的平均价格超过当地年收入的10倍。在日本全国范围内， 新建住宅楼都正在成为普通工薪家庭难以负担之物。 在冈山市的"Proud Tower冈山"，包括最高售价达3亿6998万日元（约合1667万元）的住宅在内，目前已 售的300多套按申请登记来看均为当天售出。购买者身份各异，除了经营者、公司董事和医生等之外， 还有公司职员和公务员。 在札幌市中心销售的"The Leben札幌大通MASTERS ONE"，高层的6套房超过1亿日元。据悉，以医生 和医疗相关人员为中心，购买意愿强烈。 | | 新建住宅楼的房价收入比(日本西部) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 都道府县 | 房价收入比(倍) | 上年 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The average price of newly built residential buildings in Japan for 2024 has led to a national average housing price-to-income ratio of 10.38 times, indicating that it is increasingly difficult for single-income households to afford new homes [1][3]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - The housing price-to-income ratio has increased from 10.09 in 2023 to 10.38 in 2024, marking the second consecutive year it has exceeded 10 times [3]. - Over 24 prefectures in Japan have a housing price-to-income ratio exceeding 10 times, a 30% increase from 18 prefectures in the previous year [6]. - The average annual income is growing slowly while housing prices are rising at a rate that outpaces income growth [6]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In regions outside of Tokyo, the average price of newly built residential buildings has also risen significantly, with many areas seeing prices surpassing 10 times the local annual income [1][6]. - Specific examples include Kumamoto Prefecture, where the "MJR Kumamoto Gate Tower" is selling units priced over 2 billion yen (approximately 901 million yuan) due to its prime location and strong demand [6]. - In Okayama City, the "Proud Tower Okayama" has sold over 300 units, including one priced at 369.98 million yen (approximately 166.7 million yuan), indicating a diverse buyer demographic [6]. Group 3: Construction Costs and Market Dynamics - Rising construction costs, with a reported increase of 4-6% in the past year for reinforced concrete buildings, are contributing to higher housing prices [9]. - Real estate companies are shifting focus towards high-end housing to meet the demands of dual-income families and affluent individuals, as traditional housing for the general public yields lower profits [9]. - The disparity in housing conditions between urban centers and local cities is notable, with local markets facing higher land acquisition costs due to competition with hotels and other developments [9].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 数据背后的地产行业图景 优于大市 关注非热门城市的新房供需新格局 楼市持续筑底，高基数下同比承压。今年下半年以来，销售量价明显回落， 叠加上年高基数影响，四季度地产销售同比压力明显增大。2025 年 1-10 月， 全国商品房销售额同比-9.6%，销售面积同比-6.8%。10 月单月，商品房销售 额同比-24%，降幅较 9 月扩大了 13pct；商品房销售面积同比-19%，降幅较 9 月扩大了 8pct。从样本城市高频数据看，11 月单月，30 城新建商品房成 交面积同比-33%，降幅较 10 月扩大了 9pct；18 城二手住宅成交套数同比 -26%，降幅较 10 月扩大了 2pct。库存压力居高难下，开发投资加速下跌， 土拍热度冲高回落。百强销售较弱但拿地修复，头部国央企继续发力。 非热门城市人口流出，但本地居民改善置业需求仍在。2024 年末，全国一线、 二线、三四线城市的常住人口占比分别为 6%、21%、73%，较 2010 年末分别 变动+1、+4、-5pct。一二线楼市仍有新流入人口补充刚需购买力，三四线 楼市则以本地居民的改善置业需求为主，刚需客群流失对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing unaffordability of housing in major cities, highlighting a shift from housing as a basic need to a financial asset, making homeownership a distant dream for many [1][4]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Crisis - In major cities like Hong Kong, Sydney, and Beijing, the price-to-income ratio has skyrocketed, with Hong Kong at 14.4 and Beijing exceeding 20, indicating that individuals may need to spend 20 to 30 years of income to afford a home [3][4]. - A global survey reveals that no city remains affordable, with traditional norms of housing prices being three times the annual income now obsolete [1][3]. Group 2: Financialization of Housing - Housing has transformed from a place to live into a financial asset, attracting various investors such as pension funds and family trusts, which has decoupled housing prices from local wages and construction costs [5][7]. - The limited supply of housing due to strict zoning laws and increased demand from global capital has led to soaring prices, with investors focusing on holding properties for value retention rather than for living [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Disparities and Debt - Despite advancements in productivity and technology, median wages have only increased by about 10% in the last two decades in the U.S., while housing prices have doubled or tripled, creating a significant disconnect [9][11]. - The rising housing costs have led to increased debt levels, as banks are willing to issue larger loans, further inflating property prices in a debt-valuation cycle [9][11]. Group 4: Policy Responses and Future Directions - Countries like the U.S. and Singapore are re-evaluating the notion of housing as wealth, implementing policies to increase housing supply and treat homes as infrastructure rather than investment vehicles [12]. - China is also focusing on stabilizing housing prices and increasing the supply of affordable housing, aiming to create a livable environment for new citizens and youth [12].