宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 17 日 中美日房地产周期与居民债务周期比较 ——大国博弈经济学框架之一 投资要点： 分析框架：房地产周期对居民债务周期和消费动能的决定性影响。房 价收入比越高，意味着居民偿债能力冗余越薄，对房价上涨的依赖度越高， 这可能导致房地产下行阶段居民债务扩张减速周期拉长，从而可能对居民 消费特别是可选商品消费动能造成削弱。 宏 观 专 题 2015 年以来中国的房地产周期：受城镇化高速推进过程中财政货币政 策同步宽松的刺激，我国房地产市场自 2015 年起至 2021 年走出一波价量 快速上行的繁荣期。2021 年下半年，人口老龄化加速、货币化棚改政策退 出、房地产政策收紧等一系列因素共同影响下，房地产市场见顶开始回落， 下探趋势延续至今已 4 年，住宅均价、新建住宅销售面积分别较峰值水平 下滑 14.4%、49.0%。 2000-2011 年美国剧烈的房地产周期：21 世纪初美联储的一轮大幅宽 松、以及 MBS 等金融自由化进程的迅速蔓延，令美国房地产市场在 2000 年中至 2006 年期间迅速走向泡沫化的"非理性繁荣"。这一轮美国房地产 市场峰值时房价和新屋销 ...

自国家统计局5月16日公布2024年城镇单位就业人员年平均工资情况以来，6-7月份各大城市都在其地方统计局网站陆续公布该市2024年平均工资情况。 截至目前，至少有17个省市公布了2024年平均工资情况，一线城市中仅上海尚未公布。 从已经公布的城市来看，北京2024年平均工资最高，城镇非私营单位达224608元，约18717.3元/月，其次是深圳，城镇非私营单位达174478元，约14539.8 元/月。杭州城镇非私营单位以平均工资162774元（约13564.5元/月）超过广州159312元（约13276元/月）。 结合2024年热点城市新房房价、人均住房面积及人均可支配收入来看，上海、福州、北京、西安买房难度较高，都超20年，长沙、长春、青岛买房难度较 低，仅8-10年。 全国2024年平均工资发布 热点城市工资单曝光 2025年5月16日国家统计局发布《2024年城镇单位就业人员年平均工资情况》，数据显示，2024年全国城镇非私营单位和私营单位就业人员年平均工资分 别为124110元（约10342.5元/月）和69476元（约5789.7元/月）。 从区域来看，2024年城镇非私营单位分区域就业人员年平 ...

Core Insights - Chongqing has surpassed Shanghai to become the city with the highest total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first time, with a total of 538.54 billion yuan compared to Shanghai's 535.55 billion yuan [1][3] - The decline in consumption in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing is attributed to high housing prices and a significant proportion of transient populations, which affects local consumption patterns [7][10] Group 1: Consumption Data - In the first four months of this year, Chongqing's retail sales grew by 4.4%, outperforming Guangzhou's 4% and Shenzhen's 3.7%, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 0.3% and Beijing a decline of 3.7% [7][8] - The top ten cities for consumer spending last year were Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Wuhan [6] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Chongqing's Success - Chongqing's large population base of 31.9 million in 2024 provides a significant advantage over other first-tier cities, which have populations around 20 million [3] - The lower housing prices in Chongqing compared to first-tier cities allow residents to allocate more disposable income to consumption rather than mortgage payments [3][14] Group 3: Challenges for First-tier Cities - The high proportion of transient populations in cities like Beijing and Shanghai leads to lower local consumption, as these individuals may not spend significantly in the cities where they work [9][11] - The decline in consumer confidence among millennials and Generation X in first-tier cities is linked to high housing prices, which can diminish their purchasing power and willingness to spend [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - Chongqing is actively promoting consumption through initiatives such as a new round of appliance upgrades and plans to enhance service consumption and new consumption cultivation, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of 5% this year [14] - The long-term solution for first-tier cities to overcome their "affluence disease" involves addressing housing prices to improve the attractiveness of these cities for both residents and transient populations [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is expected to reach a turning point in housing prices between 2026 and 2027, contrary to the prevailing pessimistic sentiment among the public [1][2]. Group 1: Market Recovery Phases - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to occur in three phases: 1. Transaction volume stabilization by 2025 due to continuous government support [3][4]. 2. Price stabilization in 2026 as supply and demand reach a balance [4]. 3. Investment recovery post-2026 with increased land purchases and new construction [4]. Group 2: City-Specific Turning Points - Different cities will experience varying timelines for market stabilization: - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 due to favorable policies and strong demand [5]. - Strong second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Chengdu, are projected to stabilize between 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Third and fourth-tier cities may not see stabilization until 2027 or later due to long inventory cycles and population outflows [6][7]. Group 3: Indicators for Price Trends - Traditional indicators like price-to-income ratios and rental yields are deemed ineffective for predicting turning points; instead, the focus should be on supply-demand dynamics and inventory de-stocking cycles [8][14]. - The current inventory de-stocking cycles in key cities indicate a potential for price stabilization, while cities with longer cycles may face continued pressure on prices [16]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The overall recovery of the Chinese real estate market is expected to be challenging, with only a few core cities likely to present structural opportunities [19]. - The market's sensitivity to policy changes has diminished, and the focus should shift to city-specific supply-demand relationships to gauge future price movements [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xi'an's real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with new home prices declining for six consecutive months and second-hand home prices dropping for 18 months [2][10][12] - In contrast to Xi'an, Chengdu's real estate market is thriving, with new home transactions increasing by 19.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [2][4] - Xi'an's new home transaction volume has plummeted since its peak in 2018, with 2024's new home transaction area at 13.28 million square meters, only half of 2018's volume [15][22] Group 2 - Xi'an's economic growth has been sluggish, with a GDP growth rate of 4.6% in 2023, lagging behind the national average of 5.2% [18][20] - The city's industrial investment growth was negative at -5.8% in the first half of 2024, with industrial investment down by 13.3% [24][28] - Despite a population increase of 89,400 in 2024, the city's housing affordability remains a concern, with a price-to-income ratio of 28.1 times, significantly above the international warning line of 6-8 times [31][32] Group 3 - Xi'an's industrial strength is underwhelming despite its military and aerospace capabilities, with total industrial output value in 2023 estimated at 239.9 billion yuan, far below leading industrial cities [44][46] - The city has only three industries with over 100 billion yuan in output, with the automotive industry being the most prominent [46][48] - The lack of integration between military research and market applications is a critical issue for Xi'an's industrial development [66][68] Group 4 - The article raises the question of whether Xi'an's housing prices will continue to adjust downward, noting that while the city has a competitive population advantage, the overall real estate market sentiment remains negative [69][73] - Global economic uncertainties and trade tensions could further impact Xi'an's economy, although its reliance on exports is relatively low [75][76]

财经图解 . 财经大事早知道，关注东方财富股票！ 以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 仅供投资者参考，不构成投资建议 免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 ↓ 点击"阅读原文" 快速开通天天基金交易账户， 当天开户当天可买基金！ 据中指研究院近日发布的《中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数报告（2025年2月）》，2月百城新建住宅 均价为16711元/平方米，在部分优质改善项目入市带动下，新房价格环比结构性上涨0.11%，同比上涨 2.73%。 综合各大直辖市、省会城市、计划单列市的新房价格和当地最新的人均可支配收入看，在深圳和上海买 1平米新房需要的时间最长。 具体来看，深圳2024年居民人均可支配收入为81123元，也即每月6760元，而新房价格为52652元，买1 平米深圳新房需要当地7.8个月的人均可支配收入；上海2024年居民人均可支配收入88366元，也即每月 7364元，新房价格5.73万元/平，买1平米上海新房同样需要当地7.8个月的人均可支配收入。 值得一提的 ...

今天a股成交1.86万亿，中位数上涨0.66%，今天让人感到欣慰的是大盘股小盘股涨势均衡，并没有出现冷热不均的情况。 | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅％ | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1B0016 | 上证50 | +0.96% | 2702.27 | | 2 | 399300 | 沪深 300 | +0.99% | 4028.50 | | ന | 1B0688 | 科创 50 | +0.37% | 1010.90 | | ব | 399006 | 创业板指 | +1.35% | 2292.15 | | 5 | 399905 | 中证 500 | +0.88% | 6100.39 | | 6 | 1B0852 | 中证1000 | +0.66% | 6490.15 | | 7 | 932000 | 中证 2000 | +1.07% | 2663.79 | | 8 | 883418 | 微营股 | +2.06% | 1405.22 | 其中一个很重要的因素是今天有大量资金流入消费相关的板块，零售业+5.6%，乳业+5.2%、白酒+3.4%、食品加工+4 ...

郑钦文昨晚成功的拿下了奥运网球女单冠军，这也是一枚含金量极高的金牌，今天基本上霸榜了各类热搜，说明大家都是识货的。 奥运会的网球比赛在WTA系统里没有积分，赛事本身也没有奖金，所以对职业选手个人不是很重要，但每一届也会有一些顶尖高手为了国家荣誉而战。 对于郑钦文而言这次的1/4决赛、半决赛都打的极其艰苦，尤其是半决赛掀翻了世界第一斯瓦泰克更是有如神助，之前在WTA的比赛里郑钦文对斯瓦泰克6 战全负，但那一天为国夺金的信念激励她翻越了这座高山。 这么优秀的姑娘值得丰厚的商业回报，可以预见从今起她的收入将会显著增长，我这里给大家贴一个图，是福布斯女运动员排行榜。 看见国旗右边的标志了吗，世界前10里有9个都是网球运动员，唯一一个例外是谷爱凌。右边的收入里，颜色浅的"on-the-field-earning"意思是你的比赛奖 金收入，颜色深的"off-the-field-earning"是场外商业收入。 斯瓦泰克这两块一半一半，毕竟她是当今女网第一人。谷爱凌赛场收入可以忽略不计，2210万美元全是场外商业收入，估计都是冬奥会夺金后接的品牌广 告。 这里我吐槽一句，她的u型池和跳台都属于极限运动，中国女性平时玩这两个 ...