靠近JR熊本站的"MJR熊本Gate Tower"最顶层的房源价格超过2亿日元 日本2024年新出售的新建住宅楼平均价格（按70平方米换算），除以当地的平均年收入，算出"房价收 入比"，日本全国平均值为10.38倍。这意味着只有一个人工作的家庭很难买得起新房…… 在日本，东京以外其他地区新建住宅楼价格的上涨也变得明显。在建筑成本和地价上涨等背景下，销售 价格提高，占全日本一半以上的24个都道府县的平均价格超过当地年收入的10倍。在日本全国范围内， 新建住宅楼都正在成为普通工薪家庭难以负担之物。 在冈山市的"Proud Tower冈山"，包括最高售价达3亿6998万日元（约合1667万元）的住宅在内，目前已 售的300多套按申请登记来看均为当天售出。购买者身份各异，除了经营者、公司董事和医生等之外， 还有公司职员和公务员。 在札幌市中心销售的"The Leben札幌大通MASTERS ONE"，高层的6套房超过1亿日元。据悉，以医生 和医疗相关人员为中心，购买意愿强烈。 | | 新建住宅楼的房价收入比(日本西部) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 都道府县 | 房价收入比(倍) | 上年 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The average price of newly built residential buildings in Japan for 2024 has led to a national average housing price-to-income ratio of 10.38 times, indicating that it is increasingly difficult for single-income households to afford new homes [1][3]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - The housing price-to-income ratio has increased from 10.09 in 2023 to 10.38 in 2024, marking the second consecutive year it has exceeded 10 times [3]. - Over 24 prefectures in Japan have a housing price-to-income ratio exceeding 10 times, a 30% increase from 18 prefectures in the previous year [6]. - The average annual income is growing slowly while housing prices are rising at a rate that outpaces income growth [6]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In regions outside of Tokyo, the average price of newly built residential buildings has also risen significantly, with many areas seeing prices surpassing 10 times the local annual income [1][6]. - Specific examples include Kumamoto Prefecture, where the "MJR Kumamoto Gate Tower" is selling units priced over 2 billion yen (approximately 901 million yuan) due to its prime location and strong demand [6]. - In Okayama City, the "Proud Tower Okayama" has sold over 300 units, including one priced at 369.98 million yen (approximately 166.7 million yuan), indicating a diverse buyer demographic [6]. Group 3: Construction Costs and Market Dynamics - Rising construction costs, with a reported increase of 4-6% in the past year for reinforced concrete buildings, are contributing to higher housing prices [9]. - Real estate companies are shifting focus towards high-end housing to meet the demands of dual-income families and affluent individuals, as traditional housing for the general public yields lower profits [9]. - The disparity in housing conditions between urban centers and local cities is notable, with local markets facing higher land acquisition costs due to competition with hotels and other developments [9].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 数据背后的地产行业图景 优于大市 关注非热门城市的新房供需新格局 楼市持续筑底，高基数下同比承压。今年下半年以来，销售量价明显回落， 叠加上年高基数影响，四季度地产销售同比压力明显增大。2025 年 1-10 月， 全国商品房销售额同比-9.6%，销售面积同比-6.8%。10 月单月，商品房销售 额同比-24%，降幅较 9 月扩大了 13pct；商品房销售面积同比-19%，降幅较 9 月扩大了 8pct。从样本城市高频数据看，11 月单月，30 城新建商品房成 交面积同比-33%，降幅较 10 月扩大了 9pct；18 城二手住宅成交套数同比 -26%，降幅较 10 月扩大了 2pct。库存压力居高难下，开发投资加速下跌， 土拍热度冲高回落。百强销售较弱但拿地修复，头部国央企继续发力。 非热门城市人口流出，但本地居民改善置业需求仍在。2024 年末，全国一线、 二线、三四线城市的常住人口占比分别为 6%、21%、73%，较 2010 年末分别 变动+1、+4、-5pct。一二线楼市仍有新流入人口补充刚需购买力，三四线 楼市则以本地居民的改善置业需求为主，刚需客群流失对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing unaffordability of housing in major cities, highlighting a shift from housing as a basic need to a financial asset, making homeownership a distant dream for many [1][4]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Crisis - In major cities like Hong Kong, Sydney, and Beijing, the price-to-income ratio has skyrocketed, with Hong Kong at 14.4 and Beijing exceeding 20, indicating that individuals may need to spend 20 to 30 years of income to afford a home [3][4]. - A global survey reveals that no city remains affordable, with traditional norms of housing prices being three times the annual income now obsolete [1][3]. Group 2: Financialization of Housing - Housing has transformed from a place to live into a financial asset, attracting various investors such as pension funds and family trusts, which has decoupled housing prices from local wages and construction costs [5][7]. - The limited supply of housing due to strict zoning laws and increased demand from global capital has led to soaring prices, with investors focusing on holding properties for value retention rather than for living [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Disparities and Debt - Despite advancements in productivity and technology, median wages have only increased by about 10% in the last two decades in the U.S., while housing prices have doubled or tripled, creating a significant disconnect [9][11]. - The rising housing costs have led to increased debt levels, as banks are willing to issue larger loans, further inflating property prices in a debt-valuation cycle [9][11]. Group 4: Policy Responses and Future Directions - Countries like the U.S. and Singapore are re-evaluating the notion of housing as wealth, implementing policies to increase housing supply and treat homes as infrastructure rather than investment vehicles [12]. - China is also focusing on stabilizing housing prices and increasing the supply of affordable housing, aiming to create a livable environment for new citizens and youth [12].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate industry and its related sectors, including construction materials and banking. Key Points on Real Estate Industry - The real estate price decline cycle is categorized into small, medium, and large bubbles, each with different declines and durations [1] - Core city housing prices are under pressure due to pessimistic income or inflation expectations, as well as inverted rent-to-sale ratios and interest rates [1][4] - Valuation indicators like rent-to-sale ratios and price-to-income ratios are useful for identifying price turning points but typically lag behind actual price changes [2] - Loan interest subsidy policies can significantly impact the real estate market, with the coverage scope and duration being critical factors [5] - Improving income expectations is more crucial than the interest rates themselves for enhancing housing attractiveness [5] Challenges Facing the Real Estate Sector - The real estate industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including weakened transaction volumes, pressure from old and new inventory, and low income expectations [6] - New and second-hand housing transactions have declined, affecting related sectors like construction materials [6] - Quality leading companies are showing strong risk resistance and growth potential by increasing market share and optimizing their structures [6] Insights on Construction Materials Industry - Despite the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, some leading companies in the construction materials sector are showing signs of operational turning points [7] - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Materials are expected to achieve year-on-year growth even if the real estate market continues to decline [7] - The waterproofing industry leaders are experiencing strong growth momentum, with market share increasing from 28% to 30-35% [7] Investment Opportunities in the Construction Sector - The construction industry is poised for new investment opportunities as the real estate market stabilizes and policy expectations strengthen [8] - Key players in the construction sector, such as China State Construction and China Railway Construction, are highlighted as significant investment targets [9] Banking Sector Insights - Banks are facing significant interest margin pressure, with asset yields continuing to decline [14] - Future policies may focus on alleviating pressure on banks and residents through loan interest subsidies [15] - The overall valuation of bank stocks is expected to recover, with attractive dividend yields [16] Home Furnishing Industry Analysis - The home furnishing industry shows strong investment value, particularly among leading companies with good cash flow [10] - Companies like Oppein and Gujia are expected to perform well, providing a safety net for investors [10][11] - The soft furniture segment is outperforming the custom furniture segment, benefiting from increased market share in the second-hand housing market [10] Conclusion - The real estate sector is currently under pressure but presents potential investment opportunities in leading companies within the construction materials and home furnishing industries. The banking sector is also expected to recover, providing attractive investment options.

Core Insights - The article discusses the high housing price-to-income ratio in several Chinese cities, which is driving young people away due to the unaffordability of housing [1][5][6] Group 1: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio - The housing price-to-income ratio in China reached 10.0 in the first half of 2025, indicating that a typical family would need to save for 10 years without spending to afford a home [5][6] - This ratio has decreased by 26.8% since 2019 but remains significantly above the internationally recognized reasonable range of 3-6 [6][9] - The ratio varies significantly across different city tiers, with first-tier cities at 25.4, second-tier cities at 10.5, and third and fourth-tier cities at 7.4 [9] Group 2: Cities Struggling to Retain Young People - Sanya is highlighted as a city with a high housing price-to-income ratio, where local wages are insufficient to afford housing, leading many young residents to seek opportunities elsewhere [12][14] - Zhengzhou faces similar challenges, where even graduates with master's degrees struggle to find jobs that pay enough to keep up with rising housing costs [18][20] - Xiamen is described as having high housing prices with low average incomes, making it difficult for locals to afford housing, further exacerbated by limited land supply and a focus on tourism [22][24] Group 3: Broader Implications of High Housing Costs - High housing costs lead to increased living expenses, with many young professionals feeling financially strained and unable to save [28][30] - Long commuting times and high work pressure in major cities contribute to the difficulty in retaining talent, with many workers experiencing burnout [30][32] - Some cities are implementing policies to attract and retain young talent, such as housing subsidies and increased affordable housing supply, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain [34][36]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in public confidence regarding future housing prices, with only 9.1% of respondents expecting an increase in the next quarter, while 23.5% anticipate a decrease [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The survey, conducted across 50 cities with 20,000 respondents, shows that the proportion of residents expecting housing price increases has fallen below 10% for two consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of belief in price growth [3]. - Historical data reveals three notable declines in housing price expectations since 2019, with the most recent drop occurring from Q2 2025, where the percentage of those expecting price increases fell to 8.9% [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The report highlights a downward trend in residents' income and employment perceptions, correlating with the decline in housing price expectations [5]. - In Q3 2025, only 19.2% of residents preferred "more consumption," a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, while 62.3% favored "more savings" [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The preference for "home buying" has dropped out of the top five spending choices for the first time in three quarters, contrasting with its previous consistent ranking among the top four choices [9]. - The actual housing prices are also declining, with new residential sales prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.53% month-on-month in March 2025 [9]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - A significant demographic shift is noted, with a predicted reduction of 21 million potential homebuyers by 2030, as the total population has declined for three consecutive years [11][13]. - The average housing price-to-income ratio in major cities is alarmingly high, with first-tier cities reaching 18.2, indicating a severe mismatch between housing prices and residents' purchasing power [15].

Core Insights - The current housing market in China presents a significant challenge for families, with high property prices making homeownership increasingly difficult [1][2] - The average housing price in China reached 9,860 yuan in 2020, while the average income for many families did not exceed 10,000 yuan per month, creating a substantial gap [1] - The average housing price-to-income ratio in 2020 was 9.2, indicating that a typical family would need 9.2 years of income to afford an average-priced home without any expenses [1] - The real estate market is showing signs of polarization, with 27 cities experiencing price increases, while 36 cities saw declines in new home prices as of September [2] Urban Dynamics - Population movement is a critical factor influencing the long-term trajectory of the real estate market, with smaller cities facing potential population outflows while larger cities continue to attract residents [6][9] - The urbanization rate in China has reached 63.89%, indicating a shift in development patterns from rural to urban areas, with smaller cities losing population to larger ones [6] Housing Supply and Demand - The housing market is experiencing an oversupply, with a homeownership rate of 96% among urban residents and 41.5% of families owning two or more properties [9] - A significant portion of urban housing is underutilized, with a vacancy rate of 21.4% reported in 2017, suggesting that many properties are not effectively entering the market [9][10] Future Outlook - In the coming years, purchasing homes in smaller cities may become easier, while acquiring quality properties in larger cities will likely remain challenging [10] - As income levels rise, there will be a shift towards improving living standards, making high-quality housing more desirable, while ordinary housing will primarily serve basic living needs [11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, based on indicators such as second-hand housing transaction ratios, rental yield rates, and housing price-to-income ratios [2][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Ratio - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand housing increasingly replacing new housing [5]. - The average annual increase in the second-hand housing transaction ratio is projected to be 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with expectations for it to reach around 50% by 2025 [5][12]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the second-hand housing transaction ratio in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [12][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield Rate - The rental yield rate is a key indicator of the stability of second-hand housing prices, with a current national average of 2.37%, which is still 10-20 basis points below the reasonable level of around 2.5% [22][23]. - A rental yield rate that approaches the public housing loan interest rate of approximately 2.5%-2.6% is considered reasonable, indicating a balance between renting and buying [17][20]. - If rental prices stabilize, the rental yield rate is expected to reach a reasonable level by the second quarter of next year, potentially leading to a stabilization in housing prices [22][27]. Group 3: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio - The housing price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is reported at 12.3 and 9.6, respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range [28][30]. - The overall housing price has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, contributing to a more favorable housing price-to-income ratio [30][34]. - The current housing price-to-income ratios suggest that the market has significantly digested previous bubbles, with major cities showing ratios below 15 [28][30]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing transaction ratio and rental yield rate approaching reasonable levels [34][37]. - The sequence of stabilization is expected to be new good houses, old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses, with new good houses stabilizing first due to their strong product appeal [39][41]. - The overall stabilization of the real estate market will depend on macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, alongside the internal dynamics of the real estate market [34][37].

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 is experiencing a significant shift from a focus on price increases to an emphasis on quality and service in housing [1][10] - Government policies are actively aimed at making home buying easier and more secure rather than simply stimulating demand [9] Group 1: Market Changes - The supply side is shifting from blind expansion to revitalizing existing land, with a 20% reduction in residential land supply nationwide and a 30% reduction in second-tier cities [3] - Cities with a de-stocking cycle exceeding 36 months will see a halt in new land supply, while those with cycles between 18 to 36 months must first activate existing land [3] - The government is implementing innovative solutions like purchasing existing homes for relocation, which helps reduce inventory and provides better options for displaced residents [3] Group 2: Developer Strategies - Real estate companies are moving away from quantity-focused expansion to prioritizing service and quality, with many firms restructuring debt and reducing leverage [4] - Developers are now competing on the comfort and intelligence of homes rather than just speed and volume of construction [4] - New regulations in cities like Shanghai and Chengdu are allowing for more practical housing options, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards better living conditions [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Homebuyers are increasingly considering rental yields and overall living quality rather than just price appreciation, with rental yields in major cities returning to around 2% [6] - The housing price-to-income ratio has improved, making home buying more about securing a living space rather than speculating on price increases [6] - The focus has shifted from merely purchasing homes to ensuring they meet quality standards, with a growing interest in "smart homes" and sustainable living [7] Group 4: Policy Direction - The government is transitioning from a focus on risk prevention to actively supporting market confidence and sustainable development in the real estate sector [9] - Policies are being adjusted to reduce restrictions on home purchases, indicating a long-term commitment to easing access to housing [9] - The emphasis is now on creating a healthy and sustainable real estate market rather than simply driving up prices [9][10]