说句实在话，现在很多人一聊房地产，张口就是"库存太高""房价太贵"。 好像只要把房子清掉、价格打下来，市场就能活过来。 但真相是这些根本不是问题的核心，真正压垮市场的，从来不是砖头水泥，而是人心！ 预期崩了，比房价跌更可怕 截至2025年11月，全国房地产开发投资同比暴跌10.3%，全年大概率跌破9万亿元，相比2021年高峰缩 水超40%。 新房开工面积更是腰斩再腰斩，较高峰期跌去近六成。 与此同时，70个大中城市里，只有8个城市新房价格环比上涨，其余全在跌。 二手房更惨，69城下跌，仅西宁微涨0.1%。 可问题是，很多城市的房价已经"打骨折"。比如部分三四线城市，房价回到2015年水平，甚至鹤岗 式"万元房"重现。 一旦"房价还会跌"成了全民共识，哪怕你降价30%，大家也会等你降50%。 从另一个角度看，库存本身是个伪命题。 市场热的时候，房子盖多少卖多少；市场冷的时候，哪怕只剩一套，也无人问津。 关键不在有多少房，而在有没有人信这个市场还能好起来。 政策要当"最后担保人"，不能只喊口号 周叔一直认为，稳楼市不靠砸钱收库存，而靠稳预期。 2025年12月25日，有权威分析明确指出："当前房地产最大的问题绝对 ...

Core Insights - Three major real estate companies, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments, have reported their mid-year results for 2025, reflecting the current state of the real estate market [1][2] Financial Performance - Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment reported declines in net profit, while China Resources Land experienced a slight decrease in core net profit, indicating a continued bottoming out of the real estate market [1][2] - China Resources Land achieved a revenue of 94.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.86%, with a core net profit of 10 billion yuan, down 6.6% [2] - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a revenue of 83.219 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.27%, and a net profit of 8.599 billion yuan, down 16.62% [3] - Poly Developments recorded a revenue of approximately 116.856 billion yuan, a decline of 16.08%, with a net profit of approximately 2.71 billion yuan, down 63.47% [3] Profitability Metrics - Despite the decline in total profits, the profitability of these companies has stabilized, with China Resources Land's gross margin increasing to 24.0%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for Poly Developments was 14.6%, slightly above the previous year's level, while China Overseas Land & Investment maintained a gross margin of 17.4% [4] Market Position and Sales - The market share of these companies in core cities has increased, with China Overseas Land & Investment achieving a contract sales amount of 55.64 billion yuan in five major cities, accounting for 53.7% of total contract sales [5] - Poly Developments reported an increased market share in 38 core cities, ranking first in nine key cities including Shanghai and Guangzhou [5] Investment Strategies - All three companies continue to invest in core cities, with Poly Developments adding 26 projects in major cities, totaling a land price of 50.9 billion yuan [6] - China Resources Land acquired 1.48 million square meters of land, investing 32.28 billion yuan [6] - China Overseas Land & Investment led the industry with a new investment of 55.01 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year [6] Market Outlook - Company executives expressed optimism about the future of the real estate market, citing government policies and economic stability as key factors for recovery [2][7] - The focus on improving housing quality and addressing consumer needs is seen as a significant opportunity for growth in the sector [6][7]

Core Insights - A record price of 6.25 million AUD was achieved for a property in Roseville Chase, Sydney, attracting over 200 attendees at the auction [1][4] - The property, located at 8 Warrane Rd, is the highest price for a sub-1000 square meter lot in the area and the third highest overall [1][4] - The auction started with a low opening bid but quickly escalated, indicating strong market demand [4][8] Property Details - The property features five bedrooms, four bathrooms, and a swimming pool, covering an area of 681 square meters, with a guide price of 5.3 million AUD [4] - The previous owner, a local developer, purchased the original house on the lot last August, demolished it, and rebuilt the new home [5] Market Trends - Market confidence has been strong since the recent elections, with a surge in buyers following the second interest rate cut [8] - There has been an influx of both returning and new buyers, leading to increased demand despite a similar number of properties available compared to the previous year [8] - PropTrack data indicates that Roseville Chase is one of the hardest areas to buy property in Sydney, with only 2% of homes changing hands annually, compared to an overall turnover rate of 4.6% in Sydney [10]

Core Insights - The earthquake on March 28 has significantly impacted buyer confidence in Bangkok's real estate market, potentially leading to the weakest quarter for property sales and transfers in 15 years [1] - New home sales, particularly for high-rise buildings, are expected to decline sharply in the second quarter of this year [1] - The anticipated new home sales in the Greater Bangkok area for the second quarter of 2025 may hit a record low due to consumer confidence issues [1] Group 1 - The earthquake has caused visible damage to high-rise buildings, leading to a delay in property transactions as buyers reassess safety [1] - The supply of new homes scheduled for transfer in the Greater Bangkok area is projected to decrease from 33 billion THB in the first quarter to 31.4 billion THB in the second quarter of 2025 [1] - There is a shift in buyer preference towards low-rise homes, as they are perceived to be less affected by earthquakes, reminiscent of trends following the 2011 floods [1] Group 2 - Developers are urged to focus on rebuilding buyer confidence by ensuring the safety of buildings through comprehensive inspections by qualified experts [2] - It is anticipated that over 50% of buyers waiting for property transfers may reconsider their purchases, with many potentially seeking to cancel transactions [2]