今天分享的是：2025年中国房地产：要清除中国的住房库存需要什么 报告共计：25页 高盛解析2025中国房地产：消化库存需构建良性循环，一二线城市成关键抓手 2025年8月，高盛发布中国房地产市场深度报告，聚焦"如何消化住房库存"这一核心议题。报告通过回溯历史经验、测算市场空 间、模拟政策场景，指出构建供需两端的正向反馈循环是破局关键，而一二线城市将成为推动市场企稳的核心力量。 从历史经验来看，上海1998-2003年的房地产市场调整颇具参考价值。上世纪90年代末，受出口增速放缓、外资流入减少等外部 冲击影响，中国启动住房制度改革，通过取消福利分房、激励开发商融资、放开土地出让等政策，推动房地产成为经济增长引 擎。但改革初期也带来了库存压力，1995-1998年全国商品住宅完工量超出销售量约70%，1998年全国待售库存达2亿平方米，上 海待售库存占当地住房总量的7%。 为化解库存，上海推出针对性政策组合，其中五年期个人所得税退税政策效果显著。据测算，该政策期间累计退税规模约90 亿-160亿元，占同期当地房产销售额的2%-4%、地方税收的11%-19%。配合降低契税、对开发商租赁购房模式给予税收优惠等 措施 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Guangzhou has sparked significant reactions in the real estate market, indicating a move towards "precise regulation" aimed at encouraging high-income individuals to buy more properties while also facilitating ordinary families in upgrading their living conditions [1][3]. Policy Changes - The new policy includes the inclusion of peripheral areas like Panyu and Huangpu in the unrestricted purchase category and has relaxed the social security payment duration requirements [3]. - Families with existing homes are now allowed to purchase additional properties in specific areas, which could lead to increased demand from ordinary families looking to upgrade [3]. Market Reactions - In core areas like Zhujiang New Town, the policy has created a special channel for high-income individuals, effectively easing restrictions through measures like "recognizing homes, not loans" and tax incentives [5]. - A significant increase in inquiries was reported, with a 300% surge in daily visits to high-end projects, particularly from wealthy business owners [5]. Impact on Ordinary Families - The policy has reduced transaction taxes on second-hand homes and increased public housing loan limits, making it more attractive for ordinary families to consider upgrading [7]. - Data from the first week of the policy implementation showed a 45% increase in the listing of second-hand homes, with 58% of new inquiries coming from families looking to improve their living conditions [7]. Housing Supply and Affordability - Guangzhou has committed to adding 100,000 units of affordable rental housing to support low-income groups, showcasing a three-tiered policy approach that balances high-end market relaxation, mid-tier market activation, and low-end market protection [9]. - Ongoing urban village renovations are expected to release up to 30 million square meters of rental housing, ensuring that the rental market remains stable despite the relaxation of purchase restrictions [9]. Regulatory Concerns - Signs of overheating in the real estate market have emerged, prompting local regulatory bodies to tighten approval conditions for second-home loans and delay the launch of some new developments [11]. - Experts have suggested the establishment of a warning system for price fluctuations in specific areas to prevent localized overheating from disrupting overall market balance [11]. Public Sentiment - There is skepticism among the public regarding the notion of a market overheating, with some believing that the narrative is being exaggerated to stimulate buying activity [13].