Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production shows a seasonal decline with decreased开工 rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, PTA, and tires, and an increased PX开工 rate; prices generally weaken with falling prices of crude oil, copper, zinc, and agricultural products, while coking coal and rebar prices rise slightly; the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities declines, and the land supply area in 100 cities continues to grow; holiday consumption shows steady growth, with high enthusiasm for residents' travel consumption, increased domestic tourist arrivals, total spending, and cross - regional personnel movement year - on - year, but a large year - on - year decline in movie box office. In the short term, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the October Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][3][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Affected by holidays, the overall enthusiasm declines - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 pct, the blast furnace开工 rate decreased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 3.06 tons. As of the week of October 10, the coke oven capacity utilization rate of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 74.95%, the blast furnace开工 rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 84.27%, and the national rebar output was 203.4 tons [9]. - **Petroleum asphalt**: The pre - holiday开工 rate increased by 5.7 pct, reaching the highest level since October 2023. In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant开工 rate was 40.1% [9]. - **Chemical industry**: The PX开工 rate increased by 0.81 pct compared with the pre - holiday week, while the PTA开工 rate decreased by 2.6 pct. On October 10, the domestic chemical PX开工 rate was 88.23%, and the PTA开工 rate was 74.89% [9]. - **Automobile tires**: The开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76 pct in the pre - holiday week, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07 pct. In the week of October 9, the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 43.96%, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 46.51% [10]. Demand: The enthusiasm for National Day tourism remains high, and the movie box office shows a large decline - **Real estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing declines, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreases, the land supply area continues to grow, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increases. In the week of October 5, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 124.82 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio in 10 large cities was 94.66, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2648.78 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 5.53% [13]. - **Movie box office**: The total box office during the National Day holiday was 1.835 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%. The total number of moviegoers was 50.07 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In the week of October 5, the total national movie box office revenue was 145.2 million yuan [13]. - **Tourism consumption**: During the National Day holiday, the number of domestic tourists increased by 16.08% year - on - year, and the total spending increased by 15.44% year - on - year. In 2025, the National Day holiday (8 days) saw 888 million domestic tourist arrivals, and the total domestic tourism spending was 809.006 billion yuan [17]. - **Automobile**: In the week of September 27, the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers increased by 32,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 56,000 vehicles [18][21]. - **Shipping index**: The SCFI rebounded by 4.12%, the CCFI decreased by 6.68%, and the BDI increased by 1.84%. In the week of October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1014.78 points, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points [20][22]. Prices: Crude oil, copper, and agricultural products prices decline, while coking coal and rebar prices rise - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price fell by 2.79% to $62.73 per barrel. On October 10, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $62.73 per barrel [24]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price increased by 1.66% to 1165 yuan per ton compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1165 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc changed by - 3.05%, + 1.63%, and - 1.52% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.55% compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $10374 per ton, the closing price of LME aluminum futures (active contract) was $2746 per ton, the closing price of LME zinc futures (active contract) was $2984.5 per ton, and the settlement price of domestic rebar futures (active contract) was 3107 yuan per ton [24][25]. - **Agricultural products**: The overall price of agricultural products declined compared with the pre - holiday level. The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index decreased by 0.29%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 2.80%, - 6.09%, - 1.20%, and + 2.31% respectively compared with the previous week. On October 11, the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index was 118.42 [27]. Logistics: Self - driving is the main mode of travel during the holiday, and the number of flights to Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and international destinations shows a large increase - **Holiday travel**: The average daily cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Self - driving was the main mode of travel, and the number of flights to international and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan destinations increased significantly. During the National Day holiday, the total cross - regional personnel flow was 2.433 billion person - times, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times [29]. - **Subway passenger volume**: The subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both decreased. On October 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume was 7.5194 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 8.0686 million person - times [31]. - **Number of flights**: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international flights decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 14039.29 flights, the seven - day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 383.14 flights, and the seven - day moving average of international flights was 1949 flights [34]. - **Urban traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities was 1.51 [34]. Summary: Holiday consumption shows steady growth The high - frequency economic data focuses on production decline, price weakening, changes in the real estate market, and steady growth in holiday consumption. Short - term attention should be paid to relevant policies and the real estate recovery [36].