SHFE与SGX黄金期现价差. . 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/10/24 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel has a neutral valuation, and the spot market lacks a rebound driver. The steel market is affected by macro - uncertainties and industry - specific factors, with demand being crucial. For the short - term, there is no clear contradiction for a unilateral direction, and there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon lack driving forces and their prices are oscillating. Supply is high, demand is weak, and there are long - term concerns despite short - term production motivation [2]. - Coking coal and coke have strong spot performance but the futures market is oscillating. There are concerns about negative feedback in the short - term, while policies may have a positive impact on supply in the long - term [4]. - Iron ore is affected by trade frictions and supply - demand factors. There is a risk of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 13, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139.00 yuan/ton (down 27.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3274.00 yuan/ton (down 25.00 yuan, - 0.76%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083.00 yuan/ton (down 24.00 yuan, - 0.77%), HC2601 at 3261.00 yuan/ton (down 29.00 yuan, - 0.88%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 56.00 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 at - 13.00 yuan/ton, etc., and the spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread at 178.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio at 3.83, etc., also had corresponding changes on October 13 [1]. Spot Market - On October 13, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3210.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil at 3340.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan) [1]. - The base differentials, such as HC main contract at 39.00 yuan/ton, RB main contract at 127.00 yuan/ton, etc., also had changes on October 13 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Focus on the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150. Roll the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for now [6]. - For iron ore, take a short - term wait - and - see approach [5].

黑色产业链日报 2025/10/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

南华期货纯苯苯乙烯产业链周报 ——纯苯拖累，苯乙烯反弹空间有限 南华苯乙烯产业链周报：纯苯拖累，苯乙烯反弹空间有限 戴一帆 . 2025-09-29 10:20:51 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 黄思婕（期货从业资格证证号：F03130744） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 纯苯供应端，装置检修推迟+长停纯苯小装置计划回归，进口方面亦有欧洲至中国的进口成交，四季度供应预 期维持高位；而需求端下游投产与检修并存且今年终端大概率旺季不旺，下游无法消化纯苯的高供应，累库 格局难改。苯乙烯方面，大装置延长检修时间+多套在产装置降负，9月苯乙烯供应继续收紧，预计到10月中 下旬供应才会增多。平衡表看9-11月苯乙烯将维持紧平衡，但自身高库存加上上游纯苯的拖累也限制苯乙烯 向上空间，短期更多跟随原油波动，震荡看待，单边观望为主，品种间可考虑逢低做扩纯苯苯乙烯价差。宏 观上仍需关注"反内卷"，关注10月的四中全会和十五五规划纲要，基本面无明显驱动下宏观情绪对于盘面的影 响增大。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 1、受到月底补空以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. However, if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level, and the recent arrival volume has slightly declined. The daily average hot metal production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has been decreasing for several weeks. The port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. In the short term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production [5]. - The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future. The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [14][16]. - The price of glass may form support at a low level as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices. The price of soda ash remains in a volatile market, and a cautious attitude is recommended [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Information - The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3172 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.794%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 256,453 tons, a net increase of 6,931 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.97051 million lots, a net decrease of 29,174 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3374 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.596%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37,228 tons, a net decrease of 7,721 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.413153 million lots, a net increase of 829 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. The Fed's monetary policy stance was more cautious than expected, and preventive interest rate cuts have begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. Last week, steel exports declined slightly, remaining in a weak and volatile state. Fundamentally, rebar production has declined, apparent demand has slightly increased, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; hot - rolled coil production has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Last Friday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, up 0.94% (+7.50), with a position change of +40,992 lots to 574,500 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 889,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.00% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. Australia's shipments have increased month - on - month, and Brazil's shipments have rebounded significantly, returning above the same - period level in previous years. Shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased. The recent arrival volume has slightly declined. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union was 2.4102 million tons, up 0.47 million tons. There were both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. Before the National Day, part of the inventory may continue to be transferred to the mills. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has continued to increase, and the inventory decline rate has slowed. The apparent demand for rebar has increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, the pressure from downstream on the raw material segment remains to be observed. Fundamentally, the hot metal production remains strong in the short term, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. After the China - US leaders' phone call, market sentiment has been relatively positive, which also has a positive impact on the iron ore price. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory reduction speed [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) remained volatile, closing down 0.10% at 5964 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) closed down 0.35% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 yuan/ton. From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or +2.27%. In the daily chart, the price reached around 6000 yuan/ton and then retreated, continuing to fluctuate upwards along the hourly upward trend but remaining within the volatile range. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the right - hand downward trend line. The ferrosilicon futures price also fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or +2.69%. In the daily chart, it also fluctuated upwards along the hourly upward trend but remained within the volatile range, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the interest rate cut was as expected, Powell's hawkish stance led to a significant decline in non - ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index returned to a volatile state, while the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policies, strengthening market expectations of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti - involution" sentiment has resurfaced, driving positive performance in the raw material segments of coking coal and ferroalloys. However, as the peak season approaches, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where demand has not shown peak - season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high - intensity production driven by profits, and the hot metal production remains above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a reverse - seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality. In the short term, especially after the National Day holiday, the black sector may experience a downward correction. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore inventory at ports has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens in the future, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, manganese silicon is likely to follow the black - sector market. For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions in its supply - demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 9305 yuan/ton, up 4.49% (+400). The weighted position changed by +37,604 lots to 553,772 lots. In the spot market, the price of unoxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 505 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoints: Last Friday, the price of industrial silicon suddenly rose rapidly at the end of the session. In the short term, the price has shown a pulsed increase and is relatively unstable, so risk control is necessary. Fundamentally, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. Production has slowed down after several weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high, and it is uncertain whether high - operating - rate enterprises will start to reduce production. In the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level. The visible inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the marginal reduction is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has remained at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the industrial silicon price. At the policy level, the "anti - involution" concept leaves room for future price improvement. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,700 yuan/ton, down 0.95% (-505). The weighted position changed by - 10,472 lots to 273,121 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.15 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.65 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The polysilicon futures price continues to be influenced by policy narratives. In the short term, the market focus remains on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Fundamentally, part of the previous inventory has been transferred downstream, and the inventory reduction space for the entire industry is limited, depending on the maintenance situation of high - operating - rate enterprises. In terms of price, the basis has been continuously shrinking, the spot price has continued to rise, and the price - passing in the middle and front - end of the downstream is relatively smooth, but there is still a stalemate in the component segment, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expectations cannot be confirmed or falsified. Before the final implementation, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress. In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control, as well as the authenticity of sudden news [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.11% (-26). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million cases, down 675,000 cases (-1.10%). In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 16,632 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 608 lots [18]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The terminal demand is still weak, and downstream buyers are cautious and waiting. In terms of supply, there have been limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices and making flexible adjustments in actual transactions. The inventory performance varies by region, with good inventory reduction in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, there is no single - sided driving factor in the market, and the price fluctuation range is limited. In terms of the futures market, the trading volume has decreased last week, and the capital entry desire is not strong, but the price center has been rising. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the futures price may form support at a low level, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-28). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1216 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including a decrease of 28,400 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 13,500 tons in light soda ash inventory. In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 8207 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 16,826 lots [20]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The overall supply of soda ash is stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu have resumed production, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply shows a narrow - range fluctuation. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and some enterprises' willingness to stock up before the festival is gradually increasing, with appropriate replenishment at low prices, leading to a downward trend in enterprise inventory. Some manufacturers' orders are almost full, and their attitude of stabilizing prices has strengthened. However, the current industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level is still high, so the upward driving force in the fundamentals is still limited. In the futures market, the trading volume was small last week, and no effective breakthrough was achieved. The price pattern is relatively loose, and it remains in a volatile market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner. Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, and a preventive rate cut has begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive a manufacturing recovery, indirectly boosting steel demand. [11][12] - In China, economic data in August slowed down and fell short of expectations, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance remains weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Exports showed a slight decline last week and are in a weak and volatile state. [11][12] - Fundamentally, the output of rebar has declined, apparent demand has increased slightly, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; the output of hot - rolled coils has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is lackluster. Overall, although the traditional peak season has arrived, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still weak overall. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices may still face a downward risk. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59% and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The cumulative output was 81.1297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The long - process output was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. The short - process output was 0.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. [6] - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric - furnace capacity utilization rate was 54%, down from 55% in the previous period. [53] - **Hot - metal output**: The average daily hot - metal output this week was 2.41 million tons, the same as the previous value. [58] - **Regional output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.4 million tons (down from 0.45 million tons in the previous period), and in the southern region was 0.83 million tons (up from 0.8 million tons in the previous period). The output in East China was 0.83 million tons, including 0.35 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.08 million tons in Shandong, and 0.18 million tons in Anhui. The output in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.08 million tons. [61][64][67] 3.2 Demand - side - **Apparent demand**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The cumulative demand was 78.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. [7] - **Building - material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (up from 105,098 tons last week), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 18,400 tons (unchanged from last week). [70] - **Regional trading volume**: The trading volume of construction steel for mainstream traders in the northern region was 20,465 tons, and in Beijing was 8,120 tons. In East China, it was 35,531 tons, including 4,970 tons in Shanghai and 4,900 tons in Hangzhou. In the southern region, it was 31,840 tons, and in Guangzhou was 5,000 tons. In Chengdu, it was 2,620 tons, in Chongqing was 5,000 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,300 tons. [72][73][76] - **Consumption volume**: The weekly consumption volume of rebar was 2.1 million tons, with 0.87 million tons in East China, 0.34 million tons in Southwest China, 0.26 million tons in South China, 0.11 million tons in North China, 0.19 million tons in Central China, 0.17 million tons in Northeast China, and 0.13 million tons in Northwest China. [78][80][83] - **Related prices and trade**: The price of cement (P.O 42.5) in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton. [85] 3.3 Profit - **Furnace profit**: The blast - furnace profit for rebar in East China remained around 22 yuan/ton, and the on - the - spot profit increased slightly. The profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 33 yuan/ton, and the price performance was neutral. [6] - **Electric - furnace profit**: The average profit of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week. The blast - furnace profit for rebar was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared with last week. [9][39] - **Cost**: The cost of hot - metal was 2,625 yuan/ton, the cost of scrap steel delivered to the factory was 2,257 yuan/ton, and the average cost of hot - metal for 64 steel mills was 2,625 yuan/ton. [9][47] 3.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 4.85 million tons (down from 4.87 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 36.3%. The factory inventory was 1.65 million tons (down from 1.67 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. The total inventory was 6.5 million tons (down from 6.54 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 31.7%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.22 million tons, down from 1.29 million tons in the previous period. [8][88][90] - **Regional inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 6.9 million tons, in East China was 3.29 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.96 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.37 million tons. In South China, it was 0.72 million tons, in North China was 0.99 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.18 million tons, and in Beijing was 0.46 million tons. In Central China, it was 0.51 million tons, in Northwest China was 0.5 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.2 million tons, and in Xi'an was 0.22 million tons. In Southwest China, it was 0.62 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.59 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.23 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.17 million tons. [93][96][99][102] 3.5期现市场 - **Price and basis**: The lowest - warehouse - receipt basis was 28 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9%. The basis for the 01 contract was 9 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 102 yuan/ton. [10][20] - **Spread**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar was - 57 yuan/ton, between the 05 and 10 contracts was 150 yuan/ton, and between the 10 and 01 contracts was - 93 yuan/ton. The Beijing rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was 290 yuan/ton (up from 250 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai spread was 140 yuan/ton (down from 190 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou spread was 60 yuan/ton (down from 100 yuan/ton last week). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (up from 40 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 7 yuan/ton (up from - 37 yuan/ton last week). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 150 yuan/ton (up from 140 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai premium was 130 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). [22][25][28][30] - **Other prices**: The price of billets (20MnSi) in Tangshan was 3,130 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ20) in Beijing was 3,170 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 471 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 985 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 605 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of rebar from the UAE in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 936 yuan/ton. [33][36] 3.6 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided in the report. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate weakly. Although the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry and indirectly boost steel demand in the long - term, currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may still decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. - The supply of iron ore has increased, with overseas shipments reaching a high level in the same period. Although the demand for iron ore remains strong in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate as the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a range - bound pattern, and the operation difficulty is high. From a fundamental perspective, they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector, and the operation cost - effectiveness is relatively low [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although there is some support from the demand side, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited [14][17]. - The glass market shows a differentiated trend, with supply slightly increasing and inventory decreasing marginally. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand for soda ash is average, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [20][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.66%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14137 tons, and the position increased by 36313 lots. In the spot market, the prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for rebar is weak even in the traditional peak season. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13892 tons, and the position increased by 20862 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Although hot - rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly increased, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.56% (- 4.50), and the position decreased by 936 lots to 53.35 million lots. The weighted position was 84.20 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply of iron ore has increased, with the shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all rising. The demand is strong in the short - term, but the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SM601) of silicomanganese closed down 0.33% at 5970 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of silicomanganese is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 6000 yuan/ton and the support between 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 0.17% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 6 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of ferrosilicon is also in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 5800 yuan/ton and the support between 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8905 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 60). The weighted position increased by 5945 lots to 516168 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 195 yuan/ton and - 105 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although the demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity reduction and the resumption of production on the supply side [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 53205 yuan/ton, down 0.53% (- 285). The weighted position decreased by 5951 lots to 283593 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.1 yuan/kg, and 52.6 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 605 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity integration and downstream price transfer [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1208 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.11% (- 26). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1140 yuan respectively, with the former remaining unchanged and the latter increasing by 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 67.5 million cases (- 1.10%). The atmosphere in the market was bearish [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The spot market shows a differentiated trend. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has decreased marginally due to pre - holiday stocking. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1306 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.10% (- 28). The price in Shahe decreased by 23 yuan to 1216 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 4.19 million tons (- 1.10%), including a decrease of 2.84 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 1.35 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The atmosphere in the market was bullish [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for soda ash is average, and the orders before the National Day have increased, but the transaction is still based on rigid demand. The market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [22].

Market Overview - A-shares have recently surged, breaking through the 3700-point mark, reaching a four-year high, the last occurrence being in December 2021 [1][3] - The market experienced a significant drop after briefly surpassing 3700 points, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng turning negative [3][6] Market Dynamics - The rise in A-shares is attributed to various factors including easing monetary policies, strong performance from insurance funds, and active retail trading [3][6] - The recent market correction is seen as a healthy adjustment after a substantial increase, particularly affecting stocks in hot sectors such as military, PCB, and CPO, which had previously gained around 10% in the last ten days [6][14] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable increase in retail investor interest, with many individuals sharing their stock market gains on social media, indicating a growing enthusiasm for stock trading [6][8] - Prominent fund managers are publicly sharing their investment strategies, with some managing substantial amounts, reflecting a trend of increased transparency in the investment community [6][17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, with potential for a significant upward movement around mid-September [16][17] - Key upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve's meetings and important policy announcements in October, are expected to influence market dynamics and investor confidence [17][18] Sector Performance - Specific sectors like military equipment, PCB, and CPO have shown significant declines, with the PCB index dropping by 4.37%, indicating a broader trend of profit-taking in previously high-performing areas [5][14] - The market is characterized by a "bull market" mentality, with strategies focusing on liquidity and fundamental growth expected to drive future performance [18]

Group 1 - The A-share market has potential favorable factors, with key attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and possible interest rate cuts in September, which may lead to a phase of market consolidation when expectations are realized [1] - Important policy windows such as the Fourth Plenary Session in October, the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year could act as catalysts for market breakthroughs [1] - The current market is in an upward channel, but a healthy consolidation phase may occur in the fourth quarter, laying the groundwork for profit growth stories in the following year, with the market expected to reach new heights [1] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the dynamic balance of policies and funds to grasp changes in market rhythms [1]