Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are favored in the medium to long term, buy on dips; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coke and coking coal are expected to trade sideways; rebar is recommended to buy on dips; glass is advised to sell call options [1][8][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or trade short - term within a range; aluminum is advised to buy on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are advised to trade within a range [1][13][21] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach [1][23][39] - **Cotton Textile Industry**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations [1][40] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; corn is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to adjust at a high level [1][44][57] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their respective fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, cost, and policy changes to analyze the market trends of different industries and recommends corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Currently, it may trade sideways as the market enters a vacuum period after events and lacks a clear catalyst [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market has priced in previous factors, and future trends depend on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [6] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade sideways. The coal market has a tight supply - demand situation and rising prices, with improved sentiment [8][9] - **Rebar**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is at a relatively low valuation, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened recently [9] - **Glass**: It is advised to sell call options. The supply - demand pattern is poor, with high inventory and weak demand, and the technical indicators are bearish [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade at a high level with fluctuations. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but the short - term supply of electrolytic copper is stable, and high prices suppress downstream demand [13][14] - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to take a cautious approach. The production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the demand is affected by the season and high prices [14] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant, and the refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation [19] - **Tin**: It is advised to trade within a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak, but the price has support [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are advised to trade within a range. Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data, they are in an adjustment phase in the short term but have support in the medium term [21][22] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth may not be sustainable [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The price is under pressure from alumina inventory and production, and the cost is affected by chlorine [26][27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is loose, and the overall market is weak [28] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways. The supply is affected by the production season, and the demand is weak, with high inventory [30] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply decreases due to maintenance, and the demand increases from agriculture and compound fertilizers [31] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [33][34] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade within a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly. The supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and the demand has seasonal characteristics [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak, although the cost has increased [38][39] Cotton Textile Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by the purchase price and trade negotiations [40] - **PTA**: It is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations. The supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is affected by crude oil and fundamentals [40][41] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract may face resistance in rebounds, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to have a lower price center. The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the demand is in the off - season [44] - **Eggs**: The 12 - contract is advised to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade within a range. The supply is abundant in the short term, and the long - term supply pressure is still large [46] - **Corn**: The 01 contract is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations. The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the cost has support in the long term [47][49] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to rebound from a low level. The domestic supply and demand may tighten, and the price is affected by the US soybean market [50] - **Oils**: They are expected to adjust at a high level. The short - term price is under pressure, but there is support below. Different oil products have different performance characteristics [51][57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests selling call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests exiting long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum suggests buying on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver suggest range trading [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash's 01 contract suggests a bearish approach [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; Apples and jujubes are expected to trade weakly [1] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; Corn is expected to trade weakly; Soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; Oils are expected to trade weakly [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, the third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will enter a period of consolidation [5] - The main trading line of the Treasury bond market is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and the motivation for the market to drive yields down continuously is not strong [5] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices, with a positive sentiment. The supply of coking coal and rebar may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract [10] - The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels [11] - The aluminum market may face a correction after the previous over - rise, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels [12] - The nickel market has an uncertain supply due to new policies, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - The tin market has an expected improvement in supply and weak downstream consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [18] - The precious metal market, including gold and silver, is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range [19] - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets are expected to be weak and volatile, mainly due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports [22][25][26] - The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand, and it is recommended to trade in a range [30] - The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory [32] - The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels [33] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to trade in a range due to factors such as increased global production and consumption and a decline in inventory [37] - The PTA market is expected to trade at a low level due to factors such as weak oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation [39] - The apple and jujube markets are expected to decline due to factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption [39][40] - The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts [43] - The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly [44] - The corn market is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47] - The soybean meal market is expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - The oil market is expected to be volatile at a low level, with differences in performance among varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares opened low and closed high. After the end of major events, the market enters a vacuum period and is expected to trade in a range. It is bullish in the medium to long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts declined. The market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand and rising prices. The supply may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar declined. The static valuation is neutral to low, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and wait until after the new year to consider the 05 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price reached a record high and then declined. It is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels or trade in a short - term range [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of Guinea's bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is being depleted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels for different products [12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has adjusted the RKAB policy, which may affect the supply of nickel ore. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the price of nickel iron is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the supply of tin ore is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand [18] - **Silver and Gold**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut, the precious metal market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to US ADP employment data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 4700 level [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production and inventory. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2400 level [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 6500 level [26] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - **Urea**: The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand. It is recommended to trade in a range of 1600 - 1700 for the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory. It is recommended to trade in a range of 2230 - 2330 for the 01 contract [32] - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6900 and 6600 support levels for PE and PP respectively [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand have changed, with increased production and consumption and a decline in inventory. The price of seed cotton is high, and it is expected to trade in a range [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation. It is expected to trade in a range of 4400 - 4700 [39] - **Apple and Jujube**: The apple and jujube markets are affected by factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption. The prices are expected to decline [39][40] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts and pay attention to secondary fattening and group enterprise sales [43] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and weather [44] - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by new grain listing and supply - demand factors. It is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2050 - 2170 range and 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [47] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the reduction of US soybean import tariffs and the expected adjustment of the US soybean supply - demand report. It is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - **Oils**: The oil market is affected by factors such as the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It is expected to be volatile at a low level, and it is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - November 4, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market rebounded after reaching a low point yesterday, with the Sci - Tech Innovation and Communication sectors leading the decline, and the Oil, Coal, and Photovoltaic sectors leading the rise. The market sectors are differentiated, and there is a lack of obvious short - term drivers [2]. - The margin trading balance is 24,689 billion yuan, a decrease of 122 billion yuan, which is bearish [2]. - IH2512 has a premium of 0.25 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 18.6 points, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The order of the indices is IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [2]. - The long positions of IF and IC main contracts are reduced, while the long positions of IH main contract are increased, which is bullish [2]. - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached major consensuses, and the Fourth Plenary Session was held. The short - term market benefits have been realized, and investors took profits. The index pulled back from a high level. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions when the index rises sharply during the day. The index will maintain a high - level shock, and there is a lack of obvious short - term drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Data**: Provides detailed data on futures contracts of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms [3]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Presents the base and spread charts of Shanghai 50 and CSI 500, showing historical data trends [5][8]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: Displays the daily price changes of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, etc. [11]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: Shows the daily price changes of style indices including cycle, non - cycle, low - price - to - earnings ratio, etc. [14][17]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: Presents the historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index [20]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: Displays the historical PE (TTM) data of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index [22]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: Shows the historical PB data of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index [24]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: Presents the historical data of A - share fund net inflow and CSI 300 [26]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: Displays the historical data of margin trading balance and CSI 300 [28]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect**: Shows the historical data of net inflows of Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect [30]. - **Stock Unlocking**: No specific content provided, only the title [33]. - **Fund Cost**: Presents the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week [36]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Displays the historical data of turnover rates (free - floating market value) of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext [39][41][42][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content provided, only the title [45]. - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: Presents the historical data of futures index dividend yields and 10 - year treasury bond yields [48]. Other - **Exchange Rate**: Displays the historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [50]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: No specific content provided, only the title [52]. - **Newly Established Fund Scale Changes**: Includes the newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds [54][56][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - After the China-US trade negotiations, third-quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction. It is expected to enter a period of oscillation to await new changes at the end of the year. In November, the market style is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. - The current bond market environment is still conducive to the evolution of the spread compression strategy. However, there are still certain risks in the pricing of short-term treasury bonds being excessively lower than the policy rate and the recent increase in institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation mindset and avoid excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to oscillate within a range [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Most stocks rose, with over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising. The total market turnover was 2.35 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11]. - **Core View**: After the end of relevant events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, and is expected to oscillate. The market style in November is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30-year main contract rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.02% [13]. - **Core View**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in short-term treasury bond pricing and institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual, and the absolute value was the lowest in the same period since 2013. The PMI of large enterprises also fell to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [20]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year-on-year change in the consumer price index was -0.3%, and the month-on-month change was +0.1%. The year-on-year change in the producer price index for industrial products was -2.3%, and the month-on-month change was flat. The CPI year-on-year remains negative, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI expands, gold jewelry and services are the main support for the CPI year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in the PPI narrows, and the month-on-month change is flat [23]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The significant rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two-year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month-on-month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance in September was not as strong [24][25]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded rapidly to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. In August, industrial enterprise revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The increase in profit growth rate may be related to the recognition of investment income [29]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state-owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy. From the perspective of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of midstream and downstream industries declined, reflecting the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [32]. - At the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished product inventory fell by 0.1% to 2.3%, and the real inventory year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.9% to 5.4%. The de-stocking of real inventory was faster under the influence of the accelerated convergence of the PPI. The inventory turnover days remained the same as the previous period, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [35]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the production slowdown in downstream industries was obvious. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the service production index fell to 5.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [38]. 3.2.6 Fixed Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to -6.3%, and the central value of the single - month year-on-year growth rate of private investment fell to -7.1%. The year-on-year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [41]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% of social retail sales growth, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [44]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained flat at 5.9%. The growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber fell to 6.4%. The year-on-year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term household loans turned positive, but the year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term corporate loans was still lower. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year-on-year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path, with long - term support from central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations due to geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure [3] - Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, with a bullish outlook on copper prices [17] - China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [38] - Zinc's supply - demand situation shows domestic stable supply and overseas production cuts, with low inventory supporting prices [61] - Nickel ore regulations in Indonesia are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely [76] - Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term [90] - Good market demand for lithium carbonate and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path. Long - term supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations are caused by geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure. Tensions between Russia and the US add to market uncertainty [3] Copper - **Policy Impact**: Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, and policies are bullish on copper prices [17] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 1.92% for the main and continuous - one contracts [18] - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices in different regions have daily increases ranging from 1.09% to 1.17%, and there are changes in spot premiums and discounts [24] Aluminum - **Macro and Fundamentals**: China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support. Short - term SHFE aluminum may fluctuate at a high level [38] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [39] - **Spot Data**: Spot aluminum prices in different regions and relevant premiums and discounts have daily changes, and LME aluminum spot price and premiums also change [49] Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price**: Domestic zinc supply is stable, overseas production is cut, and low inventory supports prices. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets is large, and short - term attention should be paid to export windows and macro - driving factors [61] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [62] - **Spot Data**: SMM zinc average prices increase by 0.41%, and there are changes in LME zinc premiums [69] Nickel - **Industry Conditions**: Indonesia's nickel ore regulations are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely. WTO rulings and BIS certifications are positive for stainless steel exports [76] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts show different changes, along with changes in trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts [77] Tin - **Supply - Demand**: Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a predicted support level of 276,000 yuan [90] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [91] - **Spot Data**: Spot tin prices in different categories have daily increases ranging from 0.35% to 0.83% [93] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Good market demand and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts show different daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [104] - **Spot Data**: Prices of various lithium products show daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between different lithium products [108] Silicon - **Industry Conditions**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [115] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are stable, with changes in basis and price spreads [115]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel has a neutral valuation, and the spot market lacks a rebound driver. The steel market is affected by macro - uncertainties and industry - specific factors, with demand being crucial. For the short - term, there is no clear contradiction for a unilateral direction, and there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon lack driving forces and their prices are oscillating. Supply is high, demand is weak, and there are long - term concerns despite short - term production motivation [2]. - Coking coal and coke have strong spot performance but the futures market is oscillating. There are concerns about negative feedback in the short - term, while policies may have a positive impact on supply in the long - term [4]. - Iron ore is affected by trade frictions and supply - demand factors. There is a risk of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 13, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139.00 yuan/ton (down 27.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3274.00 yuan/ton (down 25.00 yuan, - 0.76%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083.00 yuan/ton (down 24.00 yuan, - 0.77%), HC2601 at 3261.00 yuan/ton (down 29.00 yuan, - 0.88%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 56.00 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 at - 13.00 yuan/ton, etc., and the spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread at 178.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio at 3.83, etc., also had corresponding changes on October 13 [1]. Spot Market - On October 13, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3210.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil at 3340.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan) [1]. - The base differentials, such as HC main contract at 39.00 yuan/ton, RB main contract at 127.00 yuan/ton, etc., also had changes on October 13 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Focus on the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150. Roll the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for now [6]. - For iron ore, take a short - term wait - and - see approach [5].

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the planned return of long - idle small plants, and increased imports from Europe. However, downstream demand is unable to absorb the high supply, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory accumulation pattern. [1][9][20] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended, and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September and is expected to increase in mid - to - late October. From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward space. [1] - Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" concept, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline need attention. When there is no obvious fundamental driver, macro sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Pure benzene supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while downstream demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Styrene supply is currently tightening but will increase later, and its upward space is limited by high inventory and pure benzene. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market trend is expected to be range - bound. The BZ2603 is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6200, and EB2511 between 6800 - 7200. The strategy is to widen the spread between pure benzene and styrene when the EB2511 - BZ2603 spread is around 1000. [13] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5600 - 6200, and styrene 6800 - 7400. For styrene, inventory management strategies include short - selling futures and selling call options, while procurement management strategies include buying futures and selling put options. [14] 1.4 Industrial Chain Weekly Data Overview - In terms of price and profit, the prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain have changed to different extents, and the profits of some products have decreased. In terms of supply and demand, the production of some products has increased, while the demand of some downstream products has decreased. [15][16][17] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The government issued a plan to promote the stable growth of the petrochemical industry. Pure benzene port inventory decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. Multiple styrene plants reduced their loads or extended maintenance, further tightening the near - term supply. [19] - **Negative Information**: Pure benzene imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The maintenance of some pure benzene plants has been postponed, and two long - idle plants are planned to resume production. Two large - scale styrene plants are planned to be put into production in October. [20] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key economic data such as China's official manufacturing PMI, US ADP employment, ISM manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls need attention. [21] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The unilateral price of styrene rebounded after a decline this week, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil. There was no significant change in the long and short positions in the top five seats of the dragon - tiger list, and the net short position of the main profitable seats increased slightly. [23] - The monthly C - structure of the styrene market flattened. The market interprets the increase in near - term styrene maintenance losses as a negative factor for pure benzene. The spread between pure benzene and styrene has widened, and the strategy is to widen the spread at low levels. [27][30] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyzes the profits of various links in the industrial chain, including naphtha cracking and reforming, aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, pure benzene, and its downstream products, as well as styrene and its downstream products. [32][40][48][53] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzes the seasonal patterns of import profits and monthly import volumes of pure benzene and styrene. [58][59] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Side and Projection - **Pure Benzene Supply**: This week, the production of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene increased. The maintenance of some plants has been postponed, and imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter, so the supply is expected to increase. [60] - **Styrene Supply**: This week, styrene production decreased. Short - term maintenance plans are numerous, and supply will tighten, but it will increase again after new plants are put into production and maintenance plants resume in mid - to - late October. [65] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projection - **Pure Benzene Demand**: The demand for pure benzene from its five major downstream products has increased due to the resumption of some maintenance plants. [71] - **Styrene Demand**: The operating rates of EPS and PS among the downstream 3S products have declined, and the demand for styrene has decreased. The future production schedules of household air conditioners and refrigerators have been revised upwards but are still significantly lower than last year, providing little support for styrene demand. [105][106] 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Analyzes the new plant production capacity and supply - demand balance of pure benzene and styrene in 2025, showing that there may be a supply surplus of pure benzene in the fourth quarter and a supply - demand imbalance in styrene. [121][122]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. However, if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level, and the recent arrival volume has slightly declined. The daily average hot metal production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has been decreasing for several weeks. The port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. In the short term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production [5]. - The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future. The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [14][16]. - The price of glass may form support at a low level as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices. The price of soda ash remains in a volatile market, and a cautious attitude is recommended [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Information - The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3172 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.794%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 256,453 tons, a net increase of 6,931 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.97051 million lots, a net decrease of 29,174 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3374 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.596%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37,228 tons, a net decrease of 7,721 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.413153 million lots, a net increase of 829 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. The Fed's monetary policy stance was more cautious than expected, and preventive interest rate cuts have begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. Last week, steel exports declined slightly, remaining in a weak and volatile state. Fundamentally, rebar production has declined, apparent demand has slightly increased, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; hot - rolled coil production has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Last Friday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, up 0.94% (+7.50), with a position change of +40,992 lots to 574,500 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 889,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.00% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. Australia's shipments have increased month - on - month, and Brazil's shipments have rebounded significantly, returning above the same - period level in previous years. Shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased. The recent arrival volume has slightly declined. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union was 2.4102 million tons, up 0.47 million tons. There were both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. Before the National Day, part of the inventory may continue to be transferred to the mills. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has continued to increase, and the inventory decline rate has slowed. The apparent demand for rebar has increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, the pressure from downstream on the raw material segment remains to be observed. Fundamentally, the hot metal production remains strong in the short term, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. After the China - US leaders' phone call, market sentiment has been relatively positive, which also has a positive impact on the iron ore price. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory reduction speed [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) remained volatile, closing down 0.10% at 5964 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) closed down 0.35% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 yuan/ton. From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or +2.27%. In the daily chart, the price reached around 6000 yuan/ton and then retreated, continuing to fluctuate upwards along the hourly upward trend but remaining within the volatile range. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the right - hand downward trend line. The ferrosilicon futures price also fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or +2.69%. In the daily chart, it also fluctuated upwards along the hourly upward trend but remained within the volatile range, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the interest rate cut was as expected, Powell's hawkish stance led to a significant decline in non - ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index returned to a volatile state, while the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policies, strengthening market expectations of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti - involution" sentiment has resurfaced, driving positive performance in the raw material segments of coking coal and ferroalloys. However, as the peak season approaches, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where demand has not shown peak - season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high - intensity production driven by profits, and the hot metal production remains above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a reverse - seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality. In the short term, especially after the National Day holiday, the black sector may experience a downward correction. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore inventory at ports has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens in the future, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, manganese silicon is likely to follow the black - sector market. For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions in its supply - demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 9305 yuan/ton, up 4.49% (+400). The weighted position changed by +37,604 lots to 553,772 lots. In the spot market, the price of unoxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 505 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoints: Last Friday, the price of industrial silicon suddenly rose rapidly at the end of the session. In the short term, the price has shown a pulsed increase and is relatively unstable, so risk control is necessary. Fundamentally, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. Production has slowed down after several weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high, and it is uncertain whether high - operating - rate enterprises will start to reduce production. In the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level. The visible inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the marginal reduction is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has remained at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the industrial silicon price. At the policy level, the "anti - involution" concept leaves room for future price improvement. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,700 yuan/ton, down 0.95% (-505). The weighted position changed by - 10,472 lots to 273,121 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.15 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.65 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The polysilicon futures price continues to be influenced by policy narratives. In the short term, the market focus remains on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Fundamentally, part of the previous inventory has been transferred downstream, and the inventory reduction space for the entire industry is limited, depending on the maintenance situation of high - operating - rate enterprises. In terms of price, the basis has been continuously shrinking, the spot price has continued to rise, and the price - passing in the middle and front - end of the downstream is relatively smooth, but there is still a stalemate in the component segment, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expectations cannot be confirmed or falsified. Before the final implementation, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress. In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control, as well as the authenticity of sudden news [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.11% (-26). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million cases, down 675,000 cases (-1.10%). In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 16,632 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 608 lots [18]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The terminal demand is still weak, and downstream buyers are cautious and waiting. In terms of supply, there have been limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices and making flexible adjustments in actual transactions. The inventory performance varies by region, with good inventory reduction in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, there is no single - sided driving factor in the market, and the price fluctuation range is limited. In terms of the futures market, the trading volume has decreased last week, and the capital entry desire is not strong, but the price center has been rising. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the futures price may form support at a low level, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-28). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1216 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including a decrease of 28,400 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 13,500 tons in light soda ash inventory. In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 8207 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 16,826 lots [20]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The overall supply of soda ash is stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu have resumed production, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply shows a narrow - range fluctuation. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and some enterprises' willingness to stock up before the festival is gradually increasing, with appropriate replenishment at low prices, leading to a downward trend in enterprise inventory. Some manufacturers' orders are almost full, and their attitude of stabilizing prices has strengthened. However, the current industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level is still high, so the upward driving force in the fundamentals is still limited. In the futures market, the trading volume was small last week, and no effective breakthrough was achieved. The price pattern is relatively loose, and it remains in a volatile market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [21].