证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 11, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production end has differentiated heat, with the steel industry chain warming up, while asphalt and tire operating rates declining. The transaction area of commercial housing is rising slightly, and prices are showing a differentiated trend with falling crude oil prices and rising prices of coking coal, non - ferrous metals, rebar, and agricultural products. The domestic SCFI and CCFI shipping indices are continuously falling, while the BDI is slightly rising. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel Industry Chain: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity increased by 0.27 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29 pct, and rebar production increased by 10.12 tons in the week of August 8. The inventory of rebar also increased by 6.05 tons [2][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 1.4 pct in the week of August 6 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0 pct on August 7 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.1 pct in the week of August 7 [10] 2. Demand - Real Estate: In the week of August 3, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.81 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities decreased by 14.75, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 127.18 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased by 6.33% [14] - Movie Box Office: In the week of August 3, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 562 million yuan compared with the previous week [14] - Automobile: In the week of July 31, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 31,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 94,000 vehicles [18] - Shipping Index: In the week of August 8, the SCFI decreased by 3.94%, the CCFI decreased by 2.56%, and the BDI increased by 1.64% [3][21] 3. Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 4.65% to $66.43 per barrel in the week of August 7. The futures price of coking coal increased by 9.37% to 1,219.5 yuan per ton in the week of August 8 [23] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by 1.40%, 1.69%, and 3.83% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.06% on August 8 [24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products rebounded, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 0.75%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.92%, - 2.72%, + 4.74%, and - 0.71% respectively compared with the previous week on August 8 [25][27] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 281,600 and 672,900 person - times respectively in the week of August 7 [29] - Flight Volume: The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreased by 2.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 7.29 flights, and that of international flights increased by 11.86 flights in the week of August 7 [30] - Urban Traffic: The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.01 to 1.66 on August 8 [30] 5. Summary - The steel industry chain is warming up, and the price of crude oil is falling. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [33]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on multiple aspects: At the production end, the overall production of the steel industry chain declines, while the operating rates of asphalt, PTA, and tires increase; the real - estate market experiences a marginal decline with a slight drop in commercial housing transaction area; prices rise overall, with increases in crude oil, coking coal, and rebar prices, and a decrease in copper prices, and agricultural products enter a seasonal upward trend; shipping indices show a differentiated trend, with domestic SCFI and CCFI decreasing and BDI rebounding significantly; with the arrival of summer, service consumption such as tourism and entertainment grows, and both movie box - office and domestic flight volume increase. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of a new round of stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Declines, Asphalt, PTA, and Tire Operating Rates Increase - **Steel**: In the week of July 11, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.48 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 4.42 tons. The inventory increased by 0.41 tons [3][9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: In the week of July 9, the operating rate increased by 1.0 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: On July 10, the domestic chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.74 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 1.43 pct [3][9]. - **Automobile Tires**: In the week of July 10, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.81 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 2.51 pct [3][10]. 3.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Commercial Housing Transactions, BDI Hits Bottom and Rebounds - **Real Estate**: In the week of July 6, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area continued to rise, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [3][16]. - **Movie Box - Office**: In the week of July 6, it increased by 198 million yuan compared with the previous week [3][16]. - **Automobile**: In the week of July 6, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 55,700 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales decreased by 115,700 vehicles [3][20]. - **Shipping Indices**: In the week of July 11, SCFI fell by 1.71%, CCFI fell by 2.18%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 15.81% [3][22]. 3.3 Prices: Crude Oil, Coking Coal, and Rebar Rise, Agricultural Products Start to Rise - **Energy**: On July 11, the Brent crude oil price increased by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel [24]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 11, the futures price increased by 7.0% to 909.5 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: On July 11, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.92%, + 0.17%, and + 0.09% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.65% [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price increased and entered a seasonal upward trend. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.93%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by + 0.10%, - 0.28%, + 1.84%, and + 2.05% respectively compared with the previous week [27][28]. 3.4 Logistics: Increase in Domestic Flight Volume, Decline in Peak Congestion Index of First - Tier Cities - **Subway Passenger Volume**: On July 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 202,000, and that of Shanghai decreased by 214,300 [30]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flight volume increased, while that of international flights decreased [32]. - **Urban Traffic**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to decline [32].

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: July 1, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The production side shows steady improvement, with an increase in rebar production and higher operating rates for asphalt, PX, and all-steel tires. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates remain flat, while the semi-steel tire operating rate declines. - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, with a slight rebound in commercial housing transaction area. - Price trends are divergent, with a sharp drop in crude oil prices, continuous increases in coking coal and non-ferrous metals prices, and stable agricultural product prices at a low level, potentially starting a seasonal upward trend in the short term. - Shipping indices continue to decline, with a significant drop in the BDI index. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production: Rebar Production Increases, Asphalt, PX, and All-Steel Tire Operating Rates Rise - **Steel**: The coking oven capacity utilization rate drops by 0.16 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and rebar production increases by 5.66 tons. The inventory rises by 3.28 tons [9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate increases by 1.1 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate increases by 0.46 pct, and the PTA operating rate remains flat [9]. - **Automobile Tires**: The all-steel tire operating rate increases by 0.16 pct, while the semi-steel tire operating rate decreases by 0.24 pct [10] 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Show Marginal Improvement, BDI Continues to Decline Significantly - **Real Estate**: The commercial housing transaction area rebounds, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increases. The land transaction area decreases, and the residential land transaction premium rate increases [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It increases by 158 million yuan compared to the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increase by 27,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increase by 17,100 vehicles [16]. - **Shipping Indices**: The SCFI drops by 0.43%, the CCFI rises by 2.0%, and the BDI drops significantly by 9.95% [19] 3. Prices: Crude Oil Drops Sharply, Non-Ferrous Metals and Coking Coal Rise, Agricultural Products Reach Seasonal Bottoms - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price drops by 12% to $67.77 per barrel [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price increases by 4.64% to 834 yuan per ton [21]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.26%, +1.31%, and +4.89% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price drops by 0.13% [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price stabilizes, approaching the seasonal low, and may start an upward trend in the short term. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by -0.49%, +0.41%, 0%, and -2.94% respectively compared to the previous week [24][25] 4. Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Execution Volume Increase, Peak Congestion Index in First-Tier Cities Drops - **Subway Passenger Volume**: It increases in Beijing and Shanghai [28]. - **Flight Execution Volume**: The domestic and international flight volumes both increase [30]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities drops [30] 5. Summary: Production Shows Steady Improvement, Price Trends are Divergent - The production side shows steady improvement, the real estate market shows marginal improvement, price trends are divergent, and shipping indices continue to decline. Short-term focus should be on new growth-stabilizing policies, real estate market recovery, and international geopolitical changes [33]

Economic Performance - Industrial production shows seasonal weakness, with blast furnace operating rates down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0%[1] - Infrastructure construction remains weak, with cement grinding rates down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6%[1] - Port cargo throughput related to exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices declined, with egg, fruit, and pork prices down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively[2] - Industrial product prices rebounded, with the South China Industrial Price Index up 3.1% month-on-month, and the energy and chemical price index up 5.6%[2][57] Market Demand - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities fell significantly, down 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 5.1%[30] - Daily average new home transaction area in first-tier cities dropped sharply, down 38.3% year-on-year to 14.2%[30] - Shipping prices increased significantly, with the CCFI composite index rising by 8% month-on-month, and the West America route rates up 14.8%[45]

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: June 16, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, with the steel industry chain in decline and some sectors like asphalt, semi - steel tires, and PTA seeing an uptick. The real estate market is experiencing a marginal decline, and price trends are also diverse. Shipping indices are at relatively high levels. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [2][31] Summary by Directory Production - In the week of June 13, the utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 10.89 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 0.2 pct, PX operating rate decreased by 0.3 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 0.26 pct, full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.23 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 4.12 pct [3][9][10] Demand - In the week of June 8, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area declined, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. Movie box office decreased by 110 million yuan compared to the previous week. Automobile manufacturers' daily average retail sales decreased by 52,500 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 117,800 vehicles. In the week of June 13, the SCFI dropped by 6.79%, CCFI rose by 7.63%, and BDI increased significantly by 20.51% [3][13][15][18] Prices - In the week of June 13, Brent crude oil prices rose by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, coking coal futures prices dropped by 0.71% to 773.5 yuan per ton, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.24%, + 2.10%, - 1.35% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 0.70%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.98%, - 3.58%, - 0.46%, - 0.13% respectively compared to the previous week [3][21][22][24] Logistics - In the week of June 14, subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, domestic flight volume increased while international flight volume decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounded. Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 261,400 person - times with a weekly change of 2.82%, Shanghai's increased by 795,700 person - times with a weekly change of 8.67%. Domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 58 flights with a weekly change of 0.47%, international flight volume decreased by 69.43 flights with a weekly change of - 3.78%, and the first - tier city peak congestion index increased by 0.14 with a weekly change of 9.05% [4][26][28] Summary - Steel production declined, and crude oil prices increased significantly. High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, a marginal decline in the real estate market, diverse price trends, and relatively high shipping indices. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [31]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production heat improved overall with some开工率 rising and others falling; real estate improved marginally; prices continued to decline; shipping indices rose significantly. - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][34]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: On the week of May 30, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons [3][11]. - Petroleum asphalt: The开工率 decreased by 3.1 pct and declined for two consecutive weeks [3][11]. - Chemicals: The PX开工率 increased by 5.33 pct, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 0.58 pct [3][11]. - Automobile tires: The all - steel tire开工率 decreased by 0.16 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.03 pct [3][12]. Demand - Real estate: On the week of May 25, the commercial housing transaction area increased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area increased, and the residential land transaction premium rate rose [4][15]. - Movie box office: It increased by 0.35 billion yuan on the week of May 25 [4][15]. - Automobiles: On the week of May 25, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 9,648 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 19,637 vehicles [4][18]. - Shipping indices: On the week of May 30, SCFI rose by 30.68%, CCFI rose by 0.92%, and BDI rose by 5.82% [4][22]. Prices - Energy: On May 30, Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.36% to $63.9 per barrel, and coking coal futures prices fell by 9.07% to 741.5 yuan per ton [5][24]. - Metals: On May 30, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.22%, - 0.71%, and - 3.06% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 3.01% [5][25]. - Agricultural products: The overall price stabilized, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.04%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.38%, - 1.64%, + 1.41%, and - 0.38% respectively compared with the previous week [5][27]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume decreased by 20,800 person - times, while that of Shanghai increased by 128,600 person - times [6][30]. - Flight volume: On May 28, domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), and international flight volumes decreased [6][31]. - Urban traffic: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased [6][31].

Production Insights - Overall production heat has declined, with coke oven capacity utilization down by 0.05 pct and blast furnace operating rate down by 0.46 pct[3] - Rebar production increased by 49,500 tons, while asphalt operating rate fell by 3.6 pct[3][14] - PX and PTA operating rates decreased by 0.81 pct and 0.58 pct respectively[14] Demand Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, with 30 major cities recording a total of 1.8065 million square meters, down by 36,500 square meters from the previous week[4][22] - The land transaction area increased by 3.3361 million square meters, with the premium rate for residential land dropping by 7.46[4][22] - Domestic shipping indices showed mixed results, with SCFI up by 7.21% and BDI down by 3.46%[4][31] Price Movements - Prices for crude oil, coking coal, rebar, and aluminum have decreased, with Brent crude down by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel[5][34] - Coking coal futures fell by 5.61% to 815.5 yuan per ton, while LME copper and zinc prices increased by 1.76% and 0.78% respectively[5][34] - Agricultural product prices continued a seasonal decline, with pork prices up by 0.05% and egg prices down by 1.74%[5][37] Logistics and Transportation - Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, with a drop of approximately 128,700 and 112,900 passengers respectively[6][39] - Domestic flight numbers increased by 1.73%, while international flights decreased by 1.27%[6][39][42] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of policy effects falling short of expectations and liquidity tightening beyond forecasts[6][45]