Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 10, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High-frequency economic data focuses: Production end overall declined with decreased coke oven, asphalt, and PTA operating rates and reduced rebar output; blast furnace and PX operating rates increased, and automobile tire operating rates remained relatively stable. Second, commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the land supply area in 100 large and medium-sized cities increased seasonally, with a peak expected at the end of the month. Third, overall prices declined, with oil, coking coal, copper, aluminum, and rebar prices all dropping; agricultural product prices continued to rise but at a slower rate, with vegetable prices rising continuously and pork prices stabilizing and rebounding. Fourth, in terms of shipping prices, the SCFI index rose and then fell, while the BDI rebounded significantly. Short-term focus is on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment ends and the recovery of the real estate market [2][35] Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.90 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38 pct, and rebar output decreased by 4.05 tons. On the week of November 7, the coke oven capacity utilization of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 71.84%, a 0.9 pct decrease from the previous week; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 83.13%, a 1.38 pct increase from the previous week; the national building materials steel mill rebar output was 208.54 tons, a 4.05 tons decrease from the previous week; inventory was 166.84 tons, a 4.87 tons decrease from the previous week [3][10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 1.8 pct. On the week of November 5, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants was 29.7%, a 1.8 pct decrease from the previous week [3][10] - Chemicals: PX operating rate increased by 2.56 pct, and PTA operating rate decreased by 1.19 pct. On November 6, the domestic chemical PX operating rate was 90.49%, a 2.56 pct increase from the previous week; the PTA operating rate was 77.19%, a 1.19 pct decrease from the previous week [3][10] - Automobile Tires: All-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.12 pct, and semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.26 pct. On the week of November 6, the all-steel tire operating rate was 65.46%, a 0.12 pct increase from the previous week; the semi-steel tire operating rate was 73.67%, a 0.26 pct increase from the previous week [3][11] Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, and the inventory-to-sales ratio decreased; land supply area increased seasonally and significantly, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased slightly. On the week of November 2, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 201.93 million square meters, a 2.01 million square meters increase from the previous week; the inventory-to-sales ratio (area) of commercial housing in 10 large cities was 82.59, an 18.6 decrease from the previous week; the land supply area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 3749.75 million square meters, a 1761.59 million square meters increase from the previous week; the residential land transaction premium rate in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 4.17%, a 0.04 pct decrease from the previous week [3][15] - Movie Box Office: Increased by 6 million yuan compared to the previous week. On the week of November 2, the total national movie box office revenue was 215 million yuan, a 6 million yuan increase from the previous week [3][15] - Automobiles: On the week of October 31, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 86,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 107,800 vehicles. On the week of October 31, the daily average retail sales volume of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 154,796 vehicles, an 85,525 vehicles increase from the previous week; the daily average wholesale sales volume was 210,099 vehicles, a 107,782 vehicles increase from the previous week [3][21] - Shipping Index: SCFI decreased by 3.59%, CCFI increased by 3.60%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 7.02%. On the week of November 7, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.1 points, a 55.6 points decrease from the previous week; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 1058.17 points, a 36.78 points increase from the previous week. On November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104 points, a 138 points increase from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.02% [3][23] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price decreased by 2.21% to $63.63 per barrel. On November 7, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $63.63 per barrel, a $1.44 per barrel decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -2.21%. Coking coal futures price decreased by 1.31% to 1278.5 yuan per ton. On November 7, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1278.5 yuan per ton, a 17 yuan per ton decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -1.31% [4][25] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by -1.80%, -0.90%, and +0.54% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.35%. On November 7, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $10,695 per ton, a $196.5 per ton decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -1.8%; the closing price of LME aluminum futures (active contract) was $2862 per ton, a $26 per ton decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -0.9%; the closing price of LME zinc futures (active contract) was $3066.5 per ton, a $16.5 per ton increase from the previous week, with a weekly change of 0.54%; the settlement price of domestic rebar futures (active contract) was 3036 yuan per ton, a 73 yuan per ton decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -2.35% [4][26] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise but at a slower rate. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.18%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +2.42%, -0.14%, +1.58%, and 0 respectively compared to the previous week. On November 7, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 125.24, a 0.22 increase from a week ago, with a weekly change of 0.18%. Among the main agricultural products, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.23 yuan per kilogram, a 0.43 yuan per kilogram increase from a week ago, with a weekly change of 2.42%; the average wholesale price of eggs was 7.35 yuan per kilogram, a 0.01 yuan per kilogram decrease from a week ago, with a weekly change of -0.14%; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 5.78 yuan per kilogram, a 0.09 yuan per kilogram increase from a week ago, with a weekly change of 1.58%; the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from a week ago [4][28] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing slightly increased, and Shanghai slightly decreased. On November 7, the seven-day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume was 10.4051 million person-times, a 14,900 person-times increase from the previous week, with a weekly change of 0.14%; the seven-day moving average of Shanghai subway passenger volume was 10.6257 million person-times, a 92,900 person-times decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -0.87% [4][30] - Flight Operations: Both domestic and international flight operations continued to decrease. On November 8, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations was 12,270.57 flights, a 108.71 flights decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -0.88%; the seven-day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations was 359.86 flights, a 6.43 flights decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -1.76%; the seven-day moving average of international flight operations was 1817.43 flights, a 2.57 flights decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -0.14% [4][33] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities continued to decline. On November 8, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities was 1.76, a 0.05 decrease from the previous week, with a weekly change of -2.97% [4][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production end is differentiated with some开工率 decreasing and some increasing; commercial housing transactions decline marginally while land supply area rises continuously; prices are stable with an upward trend; shipping prices at home and abroad show opposite trends. Short - term attention should be paid to anti - involution, incremental policy implementation, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.42 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 pct, and rebar output increased by 5.52 tons [2][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 0.4 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate increased by 1.6 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 2.4 pct [9]. - Automobile tires: Full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.24 pct, semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.26 pct [10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area declined marginally, inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, land supply area increased continuously, and residential land transaction premium rate increased [13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 0.53 billion yuan compared with the previous week [13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 0.6 million vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales increased by 1.5 million vehicles [15]. - Shipping index: SCFI increased by 10.49%, CCFI increased by 2.89%, BDI decreased by 1.26% [18]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.32% to $65.07 per barrel, coking coal futures price increased by 3.52% to 1295.5 yuan per ton [20]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.51%, + 1.1%, and + 1.01% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.83% [21]. - Agricultural products: The overall price rose rapidly, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 increasing by 2.23%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by + 0.39%, - 0.14%, + 5.96%, and + 0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [23]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Beijing decreased slightly, Shanghai increased slightly [26]. - Flight volume: Both domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and international flight volumes decreased [28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [28].

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao - SAC Registration Numbers: S1340523070001, S1340523120001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com, cuichao@cnpsec.com [2] Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: steel production is stable with a slight increase, asphalt开工率 is continuously declining at a high level, PX and PTA开工率 remain flat, and tire开工率 slightly increases; the real estate market shows marginal improvement with increases in both commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices, continuous increase in copper prices, and accelerated upward movement in overall agricultural product prices; domestic and international freight rate indices show a divergent trend, with BDI changing from rising to falling and domestic SCFI and CCFI both rising. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30] Summary by Section Production - Steel production is stable with a slight increase, and tire开工率 is generally on the rise. In the week of October 24, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.83 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.44 pct, and the rebar production increased by 5.91 tons; the petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 pct; the chemical PX and PTA开工率 remained the same as the previous week; the full - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 1.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.95 pct [2][3][9] Demand - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, and SCFI continues to rise. In the week of October 19, the commercial housing transaction area continued to recover, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area recovered, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased; the movie box office decreased by 1.19 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 11,000 vehicles. In the week of October 24, the shipping index SCFI increased by 7.11%, CCFI increased by 2.02%, and BDI decreased by 3.77% [2][3][12] Prices - Crude oil, coking coal, and non - ferrous metals all increased, and the upward movement of agricultural products accelerated. On October 24, the Brent crude oil price increased by 7.59% to $65.94 per barrel, the coking coal futures price increased by 5.66% to 1,251.5 yuan per ton, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +3.21%, +2.81%, and +2.62% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.23%; the overall agricultural product prices increased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 2.11%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.66%, -1.99%, +5.92%, and -1.40% respectively compared with the previous week [3][20][23] Logistics - The number of domestic flights slightly recovered, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of October 24, the subway passenger volume in Beijing slightly increased and that in Shanghai slightly decreased, the number of domestic flights increased while the number of international flights decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [3][26][27] Summary - Crude oil and coking coal prices significantly increased, and copper prices continued to rise. High - frequency economic data focuses on production, demand, prices, and logistics. Short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and the real estate market recovery [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production shows a seasonal decline with decreased开工 rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, PTA, and tires, and an increased PX开工 rate; prices generally weaken with falling prices of crude oil, copper, zinc, and agricultural products, while coking coal and rebar prices rise slightly; the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities declines, and the land supply area in 100 cities continues to grow; holiday consumption shows steady growth, with high enthusiasm for residents' travel consumption, increased domestic tourist arrivals, total spending, and cross - regional personnel movement year - on - year, but a large year - on - year decline in movie box office. In the short term, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the October Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][3][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Affected by holidays, the overall enthusiasm declines - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 pct, the blast furnace开工 rate decreased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 3.06 tons. As of the week of October 10, the coke oven capacity utilization rate of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 74.95%, the blast furnace开工 rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 84.27%, and the national rebar output was 203.4 tons [9]. - **Petroleum asphalt**: The pre - holiday开工 rate increased by 5.7 pct, reaching the highest level since October 2023. In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant开工 rate was 40.1% [9]. - **Chemical industry**: The PX开工 rate increased by 0.81 pct compared with the pre - holiday week, while the PTA开工 rate decreased by 2.6 pct. On October 10, the domestic chemical PX开工 rate was 88.23%, and the PTA开工 rate was 74.89% [9]. - **Automobile tires**: The开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76 pct in the pre - holiday week, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07 pct. In the week of October 9, the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 43.96%, and the开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 46.51% [10]. Demand: The enthusiasm for National Day tourism remains high, and the movie box office shows a large decline - **Real estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing declines, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreases, the land supply area continues to grow, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increases. In the week of October 5, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 124.82 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio in 10 large cities was 94.66, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2648.78 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 5.53% [13]. - **Movie box office**: The total box office during the National Day holiday was 1.835 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%. The total number of moviegoers was 50.07 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In the week of October 5, the total national movie box office revenue was 145.2 million yuan [13]. - **Tourism consumption**: During the National Day holiday, the number of domestic tourists increased by 16.08% year - on - year, and the total spending increased by 15.44% year - on - year. In 2025, the National Day holiday (8 days) saw 888 million domestic tourist arrivals, and the total domestic tourism spending was 809.006 billion yuan [17]. - **Automobile**: In the week of September 27, the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers increased by 32,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 56,000 vehicles [18][21]. - **Shipping index**: The SCFI rebounded by 4.12%, the CCFI decreased by 6.68%, and the BDI increased by 1.84%. In the week of October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1014.78 points, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points [20][22]. Prices: Crude oil, copper, and agricultural products prices decline, while coking coal and rebar prices rise - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price fell by 2.79% to $62.73 per barrel. On October 10, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $62.73 per barrel [24]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price increased by 1.66% to 1165 yuan per ton compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1165 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc changed by - 3.05%, + 1.63%, and - 1.52% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.55% compared with the pre - holiday level. On October 10, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $10374 per ton, the closing price of LME aluminum futures (active contract) was $2746 per ton, the closing price of LME zinc futures (active contract) was $2984.5 per ton, and the settlement price of domestic rebar futures (active contract) was 3107 yuan per ton [24][25]. - **Agricultural products**: The overall price of agricultural products declined compared with the pre - holiday level. The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index decreased by 0.29%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 2.80%, - 6.09%, - 1.20%, and + 2.31% respectively compared with the previous week. On October 11, the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index was 118.42 [27]. Logistics: Self - driving is the main mode of travel during the holiday, and the number of flights to Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and international destinations shows a large increase - **Holiday travel**: The average daily cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Self - driving was the main mode of travel, and the number of flights to international and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan destinations increased significantly. During the National Day holiday, the total cross - regional personnel flow was 2.433 billion person - times, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times [29]. - **Subway passenger volume**: The subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both decreased. On October 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume was 7.5194 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 8.0686 million person - times [31]. - **Number of flights**: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international flights decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 14039.29 flights, the seven - day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flights was 383.14 flights, and the seven - day moving average of international flights was 1949 flights [34]. - **Urban traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased. On October 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities was 1.51 [34]. Summary: Holiday consumption shows steady growth The high - frequency economic data focuses on production decline, price weakening, changes in the real estate market, and steady growth in holiday consumption. Short - term attention should be paid to relevant policies and the real estate recovery [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a mixed economic performance in September, with some sectors showing improvement while others face challenges due to high base effects and seasonal fluctuations [10][28]. Group 2 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 12.6% as of September 25, attributed to typhoon weather and better hydropower output, leading to reduced coal consumption [1][7]. - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed results, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 6.2 percentage points year-on-year, while some sectors like polyester filament saw a decline of 3.1 percentage points [2][8]. - Steel production from key enterprises showed a mixed trend, with rebar production declining by 2.4% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.6% [10][12]. Group 3 - Infrastructure funding availability improved, with a funding rate of 59.54% as of September 23, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.32 percentage points [3][12]. - The average daily passenger volume for subways in major cities was 60.01 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% despite a month-on-month decline of 3.8% [13][14]. Group 4 - Real estate sales showed a month-on-month increase of 13.2% in major cities, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% noted, indicating a recovery from low bases [4][16]. - The retail growth rate for passenger vehicles slowed to 1% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 10% [20][21]. Group 5 - Home appliance sales growth slowed significantly, with offline sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping by over 60% year-on-year in mid-September [5][22]. - Container throughput at domestic ports continued to grow at a rate of 7.3% year-on-year, although shipments to the U.S. showed a decline of 22.1% [24][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses: production is steadily rising, steel production is relatively stable, asphalt operating rate reaches the highest in the past two years, and the fiscal expenditure progress may accelerate; the real - estate market shows marginal improvement with the commercial housing transaction area rising for two consecutive weeks; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and copper prices, slight decreases in coking coal and rebar of the black series, and agricultural product prices rising again; domestic and foreign freight rate indices show different trends, with BDI rising steadily and SCFI declining rapidly; affected by extreme weather such as typhoons, the number of executed flights decreases, with a large decline in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao region. Short - term focus is on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Steel production rises steadily, and asphalt operating rate hits a two - year high - Steel: In the week of September 26, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output increased by 0.01 tons. The inventory decreased by 0.66 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 40.1%, an increase of 5.7 pct from the previous week, reaching the highest since October 2023 [10]. - Chemical industry: On September 25, the domestic chemical PX operating rate increased by 0.73 pct from the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.64 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: In the week of September 25, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct [11]. Demand: Commercial housing transactions improve marginally, and SCFI declines rapidly - Real estate: In the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.79 million square meters; the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities increased; the land supply area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.41 million square meters; the premium rate of residential land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 1.43 pct [16]. - Movie box office: In the week of September 21, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 1.098 billion yuan [16]. - Automobiles: In the week of September 21, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.43 million vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 0.96 million vehicles [20]. - Shipping index: In the week of September 26, SCFI decreased by 6.98%, CCFI decreased by 2.93%, and BDI increased by 2.54% [22]. Prices: Crude oil and copper prices rise significantly, and agricultural product prices rise again - Energy: On September 26, the Brent crude oil price rose by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.12% to 1,214.5 yuan per ton [24]. - Metals: On September 26, the changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were +2.09%, -1.01%, and -0.41% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.60% [25]. - Agricultural products: On September 26, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.93%. Among major agricultural products, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.31%, +1.44%, +2.01%, and +1.61% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. Logistics: The subway passenger volume increases, and the number of executed flights decreases - Subway passenger volume: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 203,500 person - times, and that of Shanghai increased by 285,700 person - times [30]. - Executed flights: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreased by 521.43 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 58.43 flights, and international flights decreased by 32.57 flights [32]. - Urban traffic: On September 26, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [32]. Summary: Asphalt production speeds up, and crude oil and copper prices rise - The high - frequency economic data focuses are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing short - term attention to policy implementation, real - estate market recovery, and overseas policy impacts [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data focuses on three aspects: production end heat overall recovery, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and tires, and decreased rebar production; decline in commercial housing transaction area and inventory-to-sales ratio, decrease in land supply area, and continuous increase in residential land transaction premium rate; overall price recovery, with rising prices of crude oil, coking coal, and non-ferrous metals, and falling rebar price, while agricultural products continue the seasonal upward trend, with rising prices of pork and eggs, and falling prices of fruits and vegetables [1][31]. - Short-term key concerns include the implementation of anti-involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of overseas interest rate cuts [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 2.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 3.43 pct, and rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons [1][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 6.8 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while PTA increased by 6.87 pct [1][9]. - Automobile tires: Full-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.81 pct, and semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.99 pct [1][10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio declined, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate continued to rise [1][13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 492 million yuan compared to the previous week [1][13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 52,000 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles [1][17]. - Shipping index: SCFI decreased by 3.21%, CCFI decreased by 2.07%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 7.43% [1][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price rose by 2.27% to $66.99 per barrel, and coking coal futures price increased by 0.89% to 1,137.5 yuan per ton [2][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.72%, +3.78%, and +3.45% respectively, while domestic rebar futures price fell by 0.61% [2][22]. - Agricultural products: Overall price continued the seasonal upward trend, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rising by 0.32%, and the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +0.20%, +2.85%, -1.17%, and -2.74% respectively compared to the previous week [2][24]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Increased in both Beijing and Shanghai [2][27]. - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume continued to decrease, while international flight volume stabilized and slightly increased [2][28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities rebounded significantly [2][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, and PTA all decreasing, and the output of rebar decreasing, while the operating rate of tires has increased [2][32]. - The real - estate market has weakened marginally, with the transaction area of commercial housing decreasing and the land supply area increasing [2][32]. - The price trends are diverging. Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen. Agricultural product prices continue the seasonal upward trend [2][32]. - Shipping indices have continued to decline, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI [2][32]. - In the short term, focus on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production: The heat of blast furnaces, rebar, asphalt, and PTA has all declined, and the tire operating rate has increased - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.23 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory increased by 2.27 tons [8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate decreased by 2.2 pct [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 7.52 pct [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.67 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.06 pct [9]. 3.2 Demand: The transaction of commercial housing has continued to decline, and shipping indices have continued the downward trend - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased. The land supply area increased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increased [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It decreased by 399 million yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 13,800 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 22,400 vehicles [17]. - **Shipping Indices**: SCFI decreased by 3.07%, CCFI decreased by 1.55%, and BDI decreased by 4.89% [20]. 3.3 Prices: Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price rose by 2.85% to $67.73 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price fell by 6.7% to 1,141.5 yuan per ton [22]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.37%, +0.73%, and +0.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.1% [23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price continued the seasonal upward trend. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.25%, +1.05%, +1.89%, and - 1.30% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. 3.4 Logistics: The number of international flights has decreased, and the congestion index in first - tier cities has continued to rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [28]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: Domestic flights increased slightly, and international flights decreased [29]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to rise [29]. 3.5 Summary: The overall production heat has declined, and the prices of crude oil and non - ferrous metals have risen The summary is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the changes in production, real - estate, prices, and shipping indices, and suggesting short - term focus areas [32].