Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on the glass main contract [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are five reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including low historical valuation, policy benefits, marginal relief of inventory pressure, expected technical rebound, and strengthened industry supply constraints. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions on dips in the medium - to - long - term and strictly control positions in the short - term [3] - For stock index futures, it is expected that the adjustment will be limited and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [5] - Gold has a sign of starting to move upwards after a period of sideways consolidation, and it is possible to try to go long [8] - For iron ore, with the supply expected to be loose and weak domestic demand support, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation mindset and buy low and sell high [9] - Glass has shown signs of bottoming out recently, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips [11] - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports increased, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China, and the sales area market is strong under multiple positive factors [13] - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports continued to decline, with a 4.4% month - on - month decrease, and a shock judgment is made [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Valuation**: The current contract price is approaching the key level of 1000 yuan/ton, close to the cost line, with a significant discount compared to the historical center, sufficient safety margin and limited downside space [3] - **Policy**: Real estate relief policies are continuously implemented, and the funds for ensuring the completion of buildings support the completion demand. Renovation of old communities and construction of affordable housing bring incremental structural demand [3] - **Inventory**: Some glass factories actively reduce production, and with the gradual start of winter storage, the "inventory dam" risk will be slowly released, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. For example, the No. 4 line of Xinyi Ultra - thin Glass (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. with a design capacity of 900 tons/day stopped production for cold repair on December 24 [3] - **Technical**: After the price fell below multiple long - term moving averages, the short - selling momentum was fully released, and oversold signals appeared, with a short - term need for technical repair [3] - **Supply**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology prohibits new capacity, and the industry supply side continues to tighten. In the long run, the repair of supply - demand mismatch will support the price to return to a reasonable range [3] Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index having seven consecutive positive days. Technically, there is a divergence in the short - term 5 - and 15 - minute cycles, but the 60 - minute pattern remains intact. It is expected that the adjustment will be limited and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [5][6] Gold - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows a sign of starting to move upwards, and it is possible to try to go long [8] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports still having some momentum, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation mindset and buy low and sell high [9][10] Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The sales area market is strong under multiple positive factors [13] Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The inventory has continued to decline for five consecutive weeks, and a shock judgment is made [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the glass main contract [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The first wave of the glass main contract's rise is not over, and it maintains a strong feature. It is recommended to continue low - buying and not to chase after rising [5] - The three major A - share indices rose overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive positive days, showing a trend feature. The rebound cycle has increased from 15 minutes to 60 minutes [6] - Gold shows signs of starting an upward movement after a period of sideways oscillation, and it is advisable to try going long [8] - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, adopting a strategy of high - selling and low - buying [9] - The daily melting of glass has declined, and there has been another inventory reduction this week. The main driving forces are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, the daily line closed positive, and it can be viewed with an oscillation mindset in the near term [13][14] - The freight of methanol has increased significantly recently, increasing the arrival cost in the sales area. The new olefin project of Lianhong has a stable load of 80%, showing an incremental demand. After the continuous rise of port methanol prices, the amount of port goods flowing back to Shandong has gradually decreased. Under multiple positive factors, the market in the sales area is strong [16] - With domestic policies continuing to boost domestic demand, overseas pulp mills increasing production cuts, and the gradual elimination of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp should see an accelerated overall improvement. It is judged to be in an oscillating state [19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for being bullish on the glass main contract - Valuation is at a historical low: The current contract price is approaching the 1000 - yuan/ton key level, close to the cost line, with a significant discount compared to the historical center, having sufficient safety margin and limited downside space [3] - Policy benefits are gradually transmitted: Real - estate relief policies are continuously implemented across the country. The arrival of funds for ensuring the completion of buildings supports the demand for completion. Renovation of old residential areas and construction of affordable housing bring incremental structural demand [3] - Inventory pressure is marginally relieved: Some glass factories actively cut production and reduce the daily melting volume. As winter storage gradually starts, the risk of the inventory "dam" will be slowly released, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. On December 24, the fourth - line float - glass production line of Xinyi Ultra - thin Glass (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day stopped production for cold repair [3] - A technical oversold rebound is expected: After the price fell below multiple long - term moving averages, the short - selling momentum was fully released, showing an oversold signal, with a short - term need for technical repair [3] - Industry supply constraints are strengthened: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology strictly prohibits new production capacity, and the industry supply side continues to tighten. In the long run, the repair of the supply - demand mismatch will support the price to return to a reasonable range. For operation, in the medium - and long - term, gradually build long positions on pullbacks, and strictly control positions in the short - term [3]