Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance but remains active in land acquisition, focusing on core cities [8] - The company reported a 15.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, while net profit decreased by 4% [8] - The company’s land acquisition amount reached 750 billion yuan, a 160% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its land bank [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 169,399 million yuan, reflecting a 5.3% decrease compared to the previous year [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3,822 million yuan for 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 14.5% for 2025 [7] - The weighted average financing cost is reported at 2.84%, showing continuous optimization [8] - The company’s total liabilities to assets ratio is 61.0%, indicating a stable financial position [8]

2025 年 08 月 29 日 招商蛇口 (001979) 业绩平稳,拿地积极 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ST N (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025年08月28日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.06 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.44/8.40 | | 市净率 | 0.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.14 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 76,633 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,843.60/12,571.37 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.86 | | 资产负债率% | 67.86 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 9,061/8,458 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 袁豪 A0230520120001 vuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has successfully completed a directed convertible bond issuance of 8.5 billion yuan, enhancing its financial strength with a first-year coupon rate of only 2.20%, indicating strong investor confidence in the bond's value and the real estate sector's recovery [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales of 70.4 billion yuan with a contract collection rate of 112%, while its cash reserves reached 148.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [6] - The company remains the industry leader in sales despite a slight decline, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, and a sales amount of 323 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from an accelerated market clearing in the real estate sector, leading to improved concentration and profitability, with projected net profits of 5.13 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.25 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 280.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and a net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase from the previous year [5][7] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 14.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18.9 for 2025 and 17.1 for 2026, indicating a relatively stable valuation [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 34% to 4.5 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company is actively acquiring land, with a land acquisition amount of 20 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 102%, indicating a focus on core cities [6] - The company maintains a strong financial position with a weighted financing cost of 2.99% and is in the green zone regarding the "three red lines" policy [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 169.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 14.5% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.1% [5] Sales and Market Position - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales of 35.1 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the industry, with a sales area of 1.46 million square meters [6] - The average selling price was 24,000 yuan per square meter, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [6] - The company’s total uncompleted area at the end of 2024 was 27.15 million square meters, covering 2.9 times the sales area for 2024 [6]