Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience downward pressure on both volume and price, with significant year-on-year sales declines expected in Q4 due to high base effects. All 70 major cities have seen their second-hand housing price indices fall below last year's levels, indicating substantial pressure to stabilize prices. The necessity for incremental policy measures has increased, with conventional policies still having room for adjustment and extraordinary measures also being viable, albeit with timing uncertainties [2][12]. - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also recommends considering companies undergoing marginal improvements or debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading firms in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends present medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In September, the real estate market showed continued adjustment trends, with cumulative sales volume and value down 7.9% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively. The sales value for Q1, Q2, and Q3 saw declines of 2.1%, 8.3%, and 13.1%, with September's sales value and area down 11.8% and 10.5% year-on-year. The price indices for new and second-hand homes in September fell by 0.4% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing declines of 0.3% and 1.0% [12][13]. Construction and Investment Trends - New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with September's decline narrowing to 14.4%. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, but September recorded a 1.5% increase, indicating potential short-term fluctuations. The report anticipates continued double-digit declines in both construction and investment for 2025, with sales performance heavily reliant on future policy effectiveness [12][13]. Financial Position of Developers - Funding for real estate developers remains under pressure, with total funds received down 8.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw declines of 14.6% and 12.1% in September, respectively. Real estate development investment also fell by 13.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 21.3% in September, indicating a tightening of expenditure and potential impacts on construction and land acquisition costs [12][13].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 量价下行压力加大，宽松的必要性逐步提高 ——2025 年 1-5 月统计局房地产数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q1 销售表现尚可，但 Q2 以来量价下行压力加大，尤其是核心城市价格也边际趋弱，产 业政策宽松的必要性逐步提升。周期位置角度，行业量价快速下行阶段可能已经过去，但结构 性矛盾仍需消化，预期改善也需时间，常规政策的宽松空间和边际效果相对有限，真正值得期 待的在于超常规层面，只是节奏和力度需要进一步探讨，从宏观表现来看可能没有那么急迫。 当前开发公司股价较底部溢价并不大，可择优配置等待交易窗口，重视具备区域和产品优势的 龙头房企；而具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业、经纪和物管龙头，则是战略性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 量价下行压力2]加大，宽松的 ...