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中国人保(601319):承保与投资均向好,分红率同比提升
Soochow Securities· 2026-03-27 03:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company shows positive trends in both underwriting and investment, with a year-on-year increase in dividend payout ratio [1] - The company is expected to optimize its business structure and enhance cost efficiency under refined management practices [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024A is 621,972 million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, and projected to reach 816,904 million by 2028E [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 42,869 million for 2024A, with an impressive year-on-year growth of 88.2%, reaching 60,916 million by 2028E [1] - The latest diluted book value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 6.08 in 2024A, increasing to 9.86 by 2028E [1] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 1.28 in 2024A to 0.79 by 2028E [1] Business Segments Summary - In the property and casualty insurance segment, premium income is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with a market share of 31.6% [8] - The comprehensive cost ratio for property and casualty insurance improved to 97.6%, with a claims ratio of 74.0% [8] - In the life and health insurance segment, the new business value (NBV) is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 64.5% for life insurance and 22.5% for health insurance [8] Investment Strategy Summary - The company has significantly increased its equity investments, achieving a total investment return of 923 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [8] - The net investment yield is forecasted at 3.6%, with total investment yield at 5.7% [8] - The report suggests that the current market capitalization corresponds to a 2026E PEV of 0.8x and a PB of 1.0x, indicating potential for growth [1]